ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Concerning the 11pm forecast, I would be very surprised to see him become a hurricane so quick again after crossing Haiti and most of eastern Cuba.

[Ivanhater]

Based on current modeling...Hurricane Dennis and Frederick come to mind. Both crossed the mountains and blew back up in the Gulf.

[Ikester]

Here's an interesting tidbit that means nothing: ''C'' storms and ''I'' storms are tied for first place with the amount of names retired due to destruction/deaths in the United States. It's a bit disconcerting that some of the models bomb out Isaac in the eastern gulf. A landfalling hurricane of any category, even a 1, near Apalachicola would drive huge surge into the big bend of Florida.

[Snowman67]

Is it safe to say at this point that the northern coast of Texas is in the clear, or is it still too early to make that call?

[ozonepete]

Looks like it's really consolidating now. Pretty impressive compared to just a few hours ago...

[jasons2k]

Based on current modeling...Hurricane Dennis and Frederick come to mind. Both crossed the mountains and blew back up in the Gulf.

I think anything from Dennis to GLS 1900 is on the table. This morning I thought a Frederick-like path was a great analogue. Tonight, I'm not so sure.

[WeatherGuesser]

If this thing keeps coming west, I'll be wondering about an Ike-like path.

Thoughts on anything in the plains states that might turn it if it were to get as far west as TX/LA?

[RL3AO]

I agree. Its starting to look like a tropical cyclone.

Still has to figure out the lower levels but I think by tomorrow evening it could start to intensify pretty quick.

[jasons2k]

Is it safe to say at this point that the northern coast of Texas is in the clear, or is it still too early to make that call?

The Upper TX Coast is certainly not in the clear yet.

[ROCK]

It is already showing up at the San Juan long range radar.Look way down.

I just want to remind people from this distance that is the MLC depicted on radar, which is displaced from the surface circulation. Isaac is still very tilted per the recon obs.

Also, I'm getting more concerned with the possibility of very weak steering currents next week and the ridge possibly rebuilding over the SE US. We still have a long ways to go before we have any confidence on where Isaac will end-up.

there is talk of that very same scenario around the web....watching closely...

[ozonepete]

Is it safe to say at this point that the northern coast of Texas is in the clear, or is it still too early to make that call?

Still too early. But the model consensus has it recurving somewhere over Florida. You will just have to wait a day or two to be more certain.

[Shuriken]

On Lesser Antilles radar, it looks like the mid-level circulation from last night's blow-up has re-asserted itself, and the tonight's blob has arced around into it.

[jasons2k]

If this thing keeps coming west, I'll be wondering about an Ike-like path.

Thoughts on anything in the plains states that might turn it if it were to get as far west as TX/LA?

If it misses the trough, there won't be anything left to pull it north. A distinct possibility is for steering currents to collapse, the ridge builds back, and this gets pushed towards the west.

The fact that some of the globals are stalling this at the end is troubling. Also, the ensembles are spreading rather than clustering; this is not a trend we want to see.

[CronkPSU]

i have been staring at this Rainbow color loop all night and I can honestly say I have never been as perplexed at a storm as I am tonight...no idea what is going on here, looks like it may be reorganizing down to the SE but I am confused as heck

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rb-long.html

[lrak]

On Lesser Antilles radar, it looks like the mid-level circulation from last night's blow-up has re-asserted itself, and the tonight's blob has arced around into it.

The satallite loop makes it look like the bottom vortex won the battle.

[BigB0882]

It certainly looks like the main blob of convection is circling around something. The actual center? It is easy to see that blob and pin the center in the middle of it but I don't think that is the case here. That's why people keep saying the center is all over the place. Some claim is moved to the N, some say the S. I think it depends when they look at the images and where the blob is at the time.

[ROCK]

On Lesser Antilles radar, it looks like the mid-level circulation from last night's blow-up has re-asserted itself, and the tonight's blob has arced around into it.

The satallite loop makes it look like the bottom vortex won the battle.

yeah maybe....I think RECON left...so we will have to wait until the next mission.

[Ivanhater]

Based on current modeling...Hurricane Dennis and Frederick come to mind. Both crossed the mountains and blew back up in the Gulf.

I think anything from Dennis to GLS 1900 is on the table. This morning I thought a Frederick-like path was a great analogue. Tonight, I'm not so sure.

Based on current model consensus guidance, Dennis looks very good right now..plenty of time for that to change, but as of now I like that analog

[bamajammer4eva]

If this thing keeps coming west, I'll be wondering about an Ike-like path.

Thoughts on anything in the plains states that might turn it if it were to get as far west as TX/LA?

This is the answer to that from a meteorologist on the models thread

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113367&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1860

Come on peeps, please quit comparing this storm to Ike. The set up is totally different now than it was in September 2008. For Ike, the ridge was centered just north of Florida and was weakening. The trough that picked Ike up came in from the Dakotas. The setup now is a persistent trough over the eastern Conus between the ridge to the west over Texas and the Bermuda high. This is not a Texas threat IMO. Notice on the maps below, the highs and lows are reversed.