CrazyC83 wrote:20120823 1745 15.9 66.3 T3.0/3.0 09L ISAAC
Well we know that isn't right...given recon went right through that location and found nothing but east winds!

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CrazyC83 wrote:20120823 1745 15.9 66.3 T3.0/3.0 09L ISAAC
I say that only because there appears to be no external forces inhibiting intensification at this time, only a poorly organized internal system. Just some storms have 'it' and others don't. This of course is not a scientific opinion.Shuriken wrote:Why? It's not even near Haiti yet.otowntiger wrote:If Isaac doesn't start strengthening soon, I say he's not going to because his time will have run out.
Gustav went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane in an eighteen hour period after hitting Haiti.
Frederic went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane after exiting Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.
Cat-5 Hurricane Gilbert was still a tropical storm while in Isaac's current location.
Aric Dunn wrote:geez now on this second pass the winds dont fit again. lol
Nimbus wrote:The central pressure is still up near 1004 MB at the last fix. The models were expecting some intensification before a more NW track over Haiti.
Next few recon obs should give us a better indication of the track for the next 12 hours or so if we are down to one vort. May be heading more towards Jamaica.
Hurricaneman wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:geez now on this second pass the winds dont fit again. lol
I'm starting to think this is just a tropical wave, but the NHC will continue advisories anyway to keep people prepared
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Aric Dunn wrote:not only that this buoy has a ssw wind and is well west of the apparent mid level circ and wsw of the first VDM the winds are all wrong.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059
Hurricaneman wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:geez now on this second pass the winds dont fit again. lol
I'm starting to think this is just a tropical wave, but the NHC will continue advisories anyway to keep people prepared
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
KWT wrote:Well next pass going through shortly, I'm not sure that I'd say the winds don't fit, but if there is something there its a mess still.
Whatever the case, this system still is a total mess...I've not a clue why the low level is in such a terrible state.
wxwatcher1999 wrote:If it's still disorganized by 5pm does anyone think that the NHC will adjust the track left?
otowntiger wrote:I say that only because there appears to be no external forces inhibiting intensification at this time, only a poorly organized internal system. Just some storms have 'it' and others don't. This of course is not a scientific opinion.Shuriken wrote:Why? It's not even near Haiti yet.otowntiger wrote:If Isaac doesn't start strengthening soon, I say he's not going to because his time will have run out.
Gustav went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane in an eighteen hour period after hitting Haiti.
Frederic went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane after exiting Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.
Cat-5 Hurricane Gilbert was still a tropical storm while in Isaac's current location.
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