ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

20120823 1745 15.9 66.3 T3.0/3.0 09L ISAAC

Well we know that isn't right...given recon went right through that location and found nothing but east winds!

[Hammy]

Best I can make of that odd wind pattern is that it could be in the process of consolidating, pulling all those smaller vorticies into one place, but at the same time because there are vorticies there it could be causing a weak clockwise flow on the inner side of them

just throwing a wild guess out here, closest to making sense I could think of...

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

New prediction.
0 Hours, 35kts, TS
12 Hours, 40kts, TS
24 Hours, 60mph, TS
48 Hours, 60mph, TS
72 Hours, 75mph, Hurr

Thoughts?

[drezee]

Euro may have something else going for it...the drought-buster...
in 1980 Hurricane Allen broke a huge drought...
This Euro run would put a huge dent in the midwest drought!

[otowntiger]

If Isaac doesn't start strengthening soon, I say he's not going to because his time will have run out.

Why? It's not even near Haiti yet.

Gustav went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane in an eighteen hour period after hitting Haiti.
Frederic went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane after exiting Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.
Cat-5 Hurricane Gilbert was still a tropical storm while in Isaac's current location.

I say that only because there appears to be no external forces inhibiting intensification at this time, only a poorly organized internal system. Just some storms have 'it' and others don't. This of course is not a scientific opinion.

[Aric Dunn]

geez now on this second pass the winds dont fit again. lol

[Nimbus]

The central pressure is still up near 1004 MB at the last fix. The models were expecting some intensification before a more NW track over Haiti.

Next few recon obs should give us a better indication of the track for the next 12 hours or so if we are down to one vort. May be heading more towards Jamaica.

If the southern side of the circulation has opened up, recon will still be able to track the Apex at the north end.

[Aric Dunn]

not only that this buoy has a ssw wind and is well west of the apparent mid level circ and wsw of the first VDM the winds are all wrong.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[Hurricaneman]

geez now on this second pass the winds dont fit again. lol

I'm starting to think this is just a tropical wave, but the NHC will continue advisories anyway to keep people prepared

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxwatcher1999]

The central pressure is still up near 1004 MB at the last fix. The models were expecting some intensification before a more NW track over Haiti.

Next few recon obs should give us a better indication of the track for the next 12 hours or so if we are down to one vort. May be heading more towards Jamaica.

I agree I think it's going to go right over Jamaica with this current heading

[Kingarabian]

geez now on this second pass the winds dont fit again. lol

I'm starting to think this is just a tropical wave, but the NHC will continue advisories anyway to keep people prepared

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I believe Ernesto downgraded to a Tropical Wave at some point and then re-strengthened. Let's see if that's the case here.

[SunnyThoughts]

not only that this buoy has a ssw wind and is well west of the apparent mid level circ and wsw of the first VDM the winds are all wrong.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

So basically, we have a gigantic, enormous Thunderstorm with winds of 40/45 mph, no actual center of circulation just areas of swirling winds with no actual area trying to become dominant?

[Stormcenter]

If you look at this loop you would think Isaac was headed straight for C.America.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

[wxwatcher1999]

geez now on this second pass the winds dont fit again. lol

I'm starting to think this is just a tropical wave, but the NHC will continue advisories anyway to keep people prepared

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Could be what the euro is seeing and that's why it sending it west

[KWT]

Well next pass going through shortly, I'm not sure that I'd say the winds don't fit, but if there is something there its a mess still.

Whatever the case, this system still is a total mess...I've not a clue why the low level is in such a terrible state.

[Aric Dunn]

Well next pass going through shortly, I'm not sure that I'd say the winds don't fit, but if there is something there its a mess still.

Whatever the case, this system still is a total mess...I've not a clue why the low level is in such a terrible state.

in the sense that there is clearly multiple vorts and the pass they made before is not anymore dominate than the others.

[wxwatcher1999]

If it's still disorganized by 5pm does anyone think that the NHC will adjust the track left?

[KWT]

If it's still disorganized by 5pm does anyone think that the NHC will adjust the track left?

If its still not really got an organised center then its hard to see anything other than the NHC keep taking this further west in the very short term.

I do wish it'd gain just one center and stick with it!

[Jimsot]

If Isaac doesn't start strengthening soon, I say he's not going to because his time will have run out.

Why? It's not even near Haiti yet.

Gustav went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane in an eighteen hour period after hitting Haiti.
Frederic went from a tropical storm to a cat-4 hurricane after exiting Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.
Cat-5 Hurricane Gilbert was still a tropical storm while in Isaac's current location.

I say that only because there appears to be no external forces inhibiting intensification at this time, only a poorly organized internal system. Just some storms have 'it' and others don't. This of course is not a scientific opinion.

I agree. ISAAC is gonna do what ISAAC is gonna do, he is never gonna be a 'contender' IMO which of course is unofficial and devoid of any scientific reasoning.

[rainstorm]

a heads up for anyone interested. JB will be on the radio on hannity's show in about 5 minutes to discuss, isaac, joyce and the future kirk.