ATL: ISAAC - Models

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#3041 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:09 am

Shes pointing the 12z bams came right...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3042 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:11 am

sphelps8681 wrote:
tolakram wrote:Looks nearly the same to me? Wrong image posted?



I was thinking the same thing. I don't think that is the lastest map.

BTW the top seems to be the lastest.

It's right, 12z Bams and TVCN must farther East near end run. The models not seeing that ridge filling in and the trough coming from the NW is much sharper! That's my opinion only.
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#3043 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:12 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Shes pointing the 12z bams came right...


Can you provide a link or photo please? Thank you.

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#3044 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:13 am

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Re: Re:

#3045 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:15 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Shes pointing the 12z bams came right...


Can you provide a link or photo please? Thank you.

SFT

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Their site has not been working well this morning.
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#3046 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:16 am

That low pressure area in Georgia and the trough with a base all the way down around 23N sure have created a weakness for Isaac to turn NW into. I believe that turn is imminent, and may be underway already. Coupled with the 6Z models being (generally speaking) closer to the SW FL coast ... or showing direct hits ... before secondary landfall in the Panhandle area, this is going to be a bit of a nailbiter. It's also going to mean a lot of "wobble watching" in SE FL. While it appears we will probably dodge a "direct" hit, the ingestion of the NOAA mission data and the altest modelling suggest the risk is higher today than yesterday. My opinion as an amateur, as always!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3047 Postby GTStorm » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:18 am

Blown Away wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:
tolakram wrote:Looks nearly the same to me? Wrong image posted?



I was thinking the same thing. I don't think that is the lastest map.

BTW the top seems to be the lastest.

It's right, 12z Bams and TVCN must farther East near end run. The models not seeing that ridge filling in and the trough coming from the NW is much sharper! That's my opinion only.


What sticks out to me is that the BAMs basically are now in line with the 6z GFS and 00Z CMC 4-5 day behavior, which shows a curve to the NE. So most of the models at least predict the same general behavior, the shapes of the curves are all on top of each other and I guess that means they see the same basic atmospheric trends. I think the Euro still plows it on a NW heading after it's landfall prediction.

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Re:

#3048 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:22 am



That in my opinon reflects it a little further to the left or west not right or east, am I missing something here.
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#3049 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:38 am

where did the latest NAM make landfall?...sure looks west to me
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3050 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:41 am

it took the NAM 84hrs to get to that point.....wow that is forever....thank goodness its the NAM...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3051 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:41 am

I see the HWRF is west again.....nice
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3052 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:43 am

Image
12z Dynamic Models

Image
06z Dynamic Models

12z models seem to be showing a very sharp trough forcing a hard right at end run.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3053 Postby cpdaman » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:45 am

the nam and cmc are rubbish tropical models, correct me if i'm wrong please

gfs/euro and there ENS.
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#3054 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:45 am

are they expecting a sharp NE turn after landfall? Appears so on that map.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3055 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:48 am

cpdaman wrote:the nam and cmc are rubbish tropical models, correct me if i'm wrong please

gfs/euro and there ENS.



NAM good over CONUS...CMC decent enough for tropical but not the level as the EURO of GFS....
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#3056 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:49 am

This right turn at the end worries a me a little bit as it reminds me of Charley. Even if it turns NE a little sooner than expected (or later) it will have huge impacts on the west coast of FL (due to the geographical nature of the peninsula). This of course if it actually strengthens.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3057 Postby Stormlover2012 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:49 am

they are showing the nam bec it has been east for a long long time
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#3058 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:50 am

Am I right in saying the Nam is good for synoptics?
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Re:

#3059 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:51 am

pgoss11 wrote:are they expecting a sharp NE turn after landfall? Appears so on that map.


its all about timing when it comes down to these guys.....the reason they turn NE after landfall is the high builds in overhead....another 24 hours+ that high would have built in over the SE coast thus driving this more left than consensus. JMO....I can say this, the more time it takes jacking around downstream the upstream is changing and it could be left behind...



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#3060 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:53 am

Sometimes it is good to point out the less reliable models because they may show the beginning of a new trend or confirm what the other, more reliable models have been showing. It is also worth noting when a typically far right outlier begins showing westward movement or the opposite for the far left outlier swings right. You should never take any one model verbatim is what I have learned over the years.
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