ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
sphelps8681 wrote:tolakram wrote:Looks nearly the same to me? Wrong image posted?
I was thinking the same thing. I don't think that is the lastest map.
BTW the top seems to be the lastest.
It's right, 12z Bams and TVCN must farther East near end run. The models not seeing that ridge filling in and the trough coming from the NW is much sharper! That's my opinion only.
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Re:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Shes pointing the 12z bams came right...
Can you provide a link or photo please? Thank you.
SFT
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Re: Re:
SouthFLTropics wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Shes pointing the 12z bams came right...
Can you provide a link or photo please? Thank you.
SFT
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... 20%20water
Their site has not been working well this morning.
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That low pressure area in Georgia and the trough with a base all the way down around 23N sure have created a weakness for Isaac to turn NW into. I believe that turn is imminent, and may be underway already. Coupled with the 6Z models being (generally speaking) closer to the SW FL coast ... or showing direct hits ... before secondary landfall in the Panhandle area, this is going to be a bit of a nailbiter. It's also going to mean a lot of "wobble watching" in SE FL. While it appears we will probably dodge a "direct" hit, the ingestion of the NOAA mission data and the altest modelling suggest the risk is higher today than yesterday. My opinion as an amateur, as always!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Blown Away wrote:sphelps8681 wrote:tolakram wrote:Looks nearly the same to me? Wrong image posted?
I was thinking the same thing. I don't think that is the lastest map.
BTW the top seems to be the lastest.
It's right, 12z Bams and TVCN must farther East near end run. The models not seeing that ridge filling in and the trough coming from the NW is much sharper! That's my opinion only.
What sticks out to me is that the BAMs basically are now in line with the 6z GFS and 00Z CMC 4-5 day behavior, which shows a curve to the NE. So most of the models at least predict the same general behavior, the shapes of the curves are all on top of each other and I guess that means they see the same basic atmospheric trends. I think the Euro still plows it on a NW heading after it's landfall prediction.
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Re:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:06z NAM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... TNA084.gif
That in my opinon reflects it a little further to the left or west not right or east, am I missing something here.
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where did the latest NAM make landfall?...sure looks west to me
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
it took the NAM 84hrs to get to that point.....wow that is forever....thank goodness its the NAM...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

12z Dynamic Models

06z Dynamic Models
12z models seem to be showing a very sharp trough forcing a hard right at end run.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
the nam and cmc are rubbish tropical models, correct me if i'm wrong please
gfs/euro and there ENS.
gfs/euro and there ENS.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
cpdaman wrote:the nam and cmc are rubbish tropical models, correct me if i'm wrong please
gfs/euro and there ENS.
NAM good over CONUS...CMC decent enough for tropical but not the level as the EURO of GFS....
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Re:
pgoss11 wrote:are they expecting a sharp NE turn after landfall? Appears so on that map.
its all about timing when it comes down to these guys.....the reason they turn NE after landfall is the high builds in overhead....another 24 hours+ that high would have built in over the SE coast thus driving this more left than consensus. JMO....I can say this, the more time it takes jacking around downstream the upstream is changing and it could be left behind...
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Sometimes it is good to point out the less reliable models because they may show the beginning of a new trend or confirm what the other, more reliable models have been showing. It is also worth noting when a typically far right outlier begins showing westward movement or the opposite for the far left outlier swings right. You should never take any one model verbatim is what I have learned over the years.
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