ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

SFLCane, That advisory might have been before the GFS and other models at 12Z came out!

That advisory was 1.5 hours prior to the new GFS run. Pending on what happens with the Euro I would expect a shift right in the short term at least for the 5:00PM track.

SFT

[bucman1]

Couldn't agree with you more SFT

BUCMAN

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm... cmc east coast florida runner.. clearly feeling the upper trof over sc and ga.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SFLcane]

I guess we will find later this afternoon if TPC buys into any of these eastern most models affecting SFL.

[bucman1]

Aric, You don't think the CMC is up the spine with a bend back west at the end? Thats what I believe to see (i wear glasses

[SFLcane]

hmmm... cmc east coast florida runner.. clearly feeling the upper trof over sc and ga.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Aric if the trends with the models continues eastward why was the track shifted further towards the left away from southeast Florida at 11am?

[Jevo]

12Z HWRF +84

[x-y-no]

They don't do track updates in the intermediate advisories (beyond the start position, that is) so any shift would be at 5pm.

[bucman1]

By the way the CMC flip floped from west coast to east coast from the 00Z run.

[Jevo]

12Z HWRF +96

[SFLcane]

They don't do track updates in the intermediate advisories (beyond the start position, that is) so any shift would be at 5pm.

Fully aware of that.. Just don't think the NHC is buying into these eastern most models. The trend does indeed continue closer to SFL though.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, You don't think the CMC is up the spine with a bend back west at the end? Thats what I believe to see (i wear glasses

its hard to tell when the track updates in the spaghetti models we will know but looks like at least west palm beach landfall.

[SouthDadeFish]

NHC gives a lot of respect to the Euro. If the Euro comes farther east then that is when you will see a eastward track shift. They have virtually split the GFS and Euro for their own track forecast the entire life cycle of Isaac. It also helps when the consensus splits the two as well.

[tolakram]

They don't do track updates in the intermediate advisories (beyond the start position, that is) so any shift would be at 5pm.

Fully aware of that.. Just don't think the NHC is buying into these eastern most models. The trend does indeed continue closer to SFL though.

Do not make those kind of statements without a disclaimer. Original removed before I realized it had been commented on so much.


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[x-y-no]

They don't do track updates in the intermediate advisories (beyond the start position, that is) so any shift would be at 5pm.

Fully aware of that.. Just don't think the NHC is buying into these eastern most models. The trend does indeed continue closer to SFL though.

I think whether they buy it will depend to a large extent on whether the euro trends right too. We're into the pretty short term on forecasting the ridge at this point - so if it sees a more easterly weakness too then it's probably real.

[Jevo]

12Z HWRF +102

[SouthFLTropics]

That CMC run is just plain nasty...Almost a full tour of the state of Florida and then back out into the Atlantic. Things are really starting to get dicey and the clock is ticking. With preparations that need to be made and evac orders this is going to come down to the wire. I don't evny the NHC or EOC managers at all with this one.

SFT

[meriland23]

EURO 12z 00hr


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[Blinhart]

12Z HWRF +102

If I remember correctly this is a little to the West of where it was 12 hours ago.

[SouthFLTropics]

That 12z Euro initialization seems to be South and East of the current apparent LLC...Hopefully we can get a good run out of this set.

SFT