ATL: ISAAC - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re:

#3201 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:26 pm

bucman1 wrote:SFLCane, That advisory might have been before the GFS and other models at 12Z came out!


That advisory was 1.5 hours prior to the new GFS run. Pending on what happens with the Euro I would expect a shift right in the short term at least for the 5:00PM track.

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#3202 Postby bucman1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:27 pm

Couldn't agree with you more SFT

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#3203 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:29 pm

hmmm... cmc east coast florida runner.. clearly feeling the upper trof over sc and ga.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3204 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:31 pm

I guess we will find later this afternoon if TPC buys into any of these eastern most models affecting SFL.
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#3205 Postby bucman1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:33 pm

Aric, You don't think the CMC is up the spine with a bend back west at the end? Thats what I believe to see (i wear glasses 8-)
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Re:

#3206 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:hmmm... cmc east coast florida runner.. clearly feeling the upper trof over sc and ga.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Aric if the trends with the models continues eastward why was the track shifted further towards the left away from southeast Florida at 11am?
Last edited by SFLcane on Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#3207 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:33 pm

12Z HWRF +84

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3208 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:33 pm

They don't do track updates in the intermediate advisories (beyond the start position, that is) so any shift would be at 5pm.
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#3209 Postby bucman1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:34 pm

By the way the CMC flip floped from west coast to east coast from the 00Z run.
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#3210 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:35 pm

12Z HWRF +96

Image
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Re:

#3211 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:35 pm

x-y-no wrote:They don't do track updates in the intermediate advisories (beyond the start position, that is) so any shift would be at 5pm.


Fully aware of that.. Just don't think the NHC is buying into these eastern most models. The trend does indeed continue closer to SFL though.
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Re:

#3212 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:35 pm

bucman1 wrote:Aric, You don't think the CMC is up the spine with a bend back west at the end? Thats what I believe to see (i wear glasses 8-)


its hard to tell when the track updates in the spaghetti models we will know but looks like at least west palm beach landfall.
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#3213 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:37 pm

NHC gives a lot of respect to the Euro. If the Euro comes farther east then that is when you will see a eastward track shift. They have virtually split the GFS and Euro for their own track forecast the entire life cycle of Isaac. It also helps when the consensus splits the two as well.
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Re: Re:

#3214 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:37 pm

SFLcane wrote:
x-y-no wrote:They don't do track updates in the intermediate advisories (beyond the start position, that is) so any shift would be at 5pm.


Fully aware of that.. Just don't think the NHC is buying into these eastern most models. The trend does indeed continue closer to SFL though.


Do not make those kind of statements without a disclaimer. Original removed before I realized it had been commented on so much.


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Re: Re:

#3215 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:38 pm

SFLcane wrote:
x-y-no wrote:They don't do track updates in the intermediate advisories (beyond the start position, that is) so any shift would be at 5pm.


Fully aware of that.. Just don't think the NHC is buying into these eastern most models. The trend does indeed continue closer to SFL though.


I think whether they buy it will depend to a large extent on whether the euro trends right too. We're into the pretty short term on forecasting the ridge at this point - so if it sees a more easterly weakness too then it's probably real.
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#3216 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:39 pm

12Z HWRF +102

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3217 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:40 pm

That CMC run is just plain nasty...Almost a full tour of the state of Florida and then back out into the Atlantic. Things are really starting to get dicey and the clock is ticking. With preparations that need to be made and evac orders this is going to come down to the wire. I don't evny the NHC or EOC managers at all with this one.

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#3218 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:42 pm

EURO 12z 00hr
Image

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Re:

#3219 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:43 pm

Jevo wrote:12Z HWRF +102

Image


If I remember correctly this is a little to the West of where it was 12 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3220 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:44 pm

That 12z Euro initialization seems to be South and East of the current apparent LLC...Hopefully we can get a good run out of this set.

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