ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#3861 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:01 am

12z GFS +84

Image

12z GFS +93 (2nd CONUS Landfall)

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3862 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 am

Ivanhater wrote:Ouch
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



Look at that white out.. iono, looking at all them isobars, thinking 978 is quite teh underestimate..
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
frederic79
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 8:48 pm
Location: Grand Bay, AL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3863 Postby frederic79 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 am

To my untrained eyes, it looks to be MS/AL line.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#3864 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 am

12z GFS +105 (Inland)

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
timmeister
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 191
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 11:17 am
Location: Hattiesburg, MS

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3865 Postby timmeister » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 am

12Z GFS 102 HRS - Landfall Mobile, AL

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

#3866 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 am

That's def not a Pensacola landfall...more like Jackson county MS.
0 likes   
Top
MJA
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:37 pm

Re:

#3867 Postby MJA » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 am

deltadog03 wrote:Landfall btwn hr90-96 and STRONG!!! Landfall near Pensacola....



Strong as in Cat 2, 3??
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#3868 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 am

Yeah, thats gonna hurt.
0 likes   
Top
Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1621
Age: 64
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3869 Postby Javlin » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 am

I have look at a few models today not so much at Isaac but at what is happening N of us and they all show the ridge breaking at some point.The amplification of the trof and differences between the 06Z and 12z of the GFS is negligble to my eyes but has been mentioned the speed is alittle slower of Isaac.If you look at the 06GFS @84 hrs the ridge is broken and Isaac is going in at Ft.walton or there's about but on the 78hr of the 12Z the ridge is holding ever so slightly so that could still be up in the air itself.It appears that the trof may leave Isaac behind if this run verified @ the MS/AL border.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#3870 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 am

this is the difference between gfs the past 6 hrs (in terms of where it hits and the strength)

12z runImage

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

06z runImage

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#3871 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 am

Crawling inland near Mobile at hour 114
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

#3872 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:05 am

Wants to crawl up mobile bay. This looks exactly like Georges in 98...that one dropped over 2 feet of rain near my folks on the al/ms state line


This really just looks more like 0z Euro in that steering collapses at the end game. It's hard to predict landfalls. Looks to me like if it hits east pensacola then it will move cuz there's more steering to pull north. But slightly weaker steering and stronger ridge and you get it drifting in over al/ms
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#3873 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:07 am

Still crawling north over Western AL at hour 120.
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#3874 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:09 am

That's right over Mobile, AL..... Gulf Shores to P'Cola would get hit hard!
0 likes   
Top
USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2732
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: Re:

#3875 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:10 am

MJA wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Landfall btwn hr90-96 and STRONG!!! Landfall near Pensacola....



Strong as in Cat 2, 3??


Strong as in Major hurricane Cat 3+. GFS does a terrible job (and for that part all of the models do) at extrapolating pressure. Given the amount of isobars though, this is definitely a major hurricane on this run. GFDL, NAM, and now GFS have a significantly stronger system in the 00z runs.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#3876 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:10 am

thing that is scary is gfs usually has the intensity much weaker than realistically (aka hurricane status = TS winds on gfs) so them coming out with this.. well I guess it is just plain scary
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#3877 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:11 am

12z GFS +129

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
HeeBGBz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 341
Age: 71
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:25 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3878 Postby HeeBGBz » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:11 am

:eek: Yikes, that doesn't look good for us. What do the models see that has moved it west and any clue if that will continue to be a trending target?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: Re:

#3879 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:11 am

USTropics wrote:
MJA wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Landfall btwn hr90-96 and STRONG!!! Landfall near Pensacola....



Strong as in Cat 2, 3??


Strong as in Major hurricane Cat 3+. GFS does a terrible job (and for that part all of the models do) at extrapolating pressure. Given the amount of isobars though, this is definitely a major hurricane on this run. GFDL, NAM, and now GFS have a significantly stronger system in the 00z runs.

1.5 hrs for euro.. eek
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10281
Age: 48
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3880 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:12 am

In terms of miami dade and broward thus far iam likeing the 12z model trends which are further south into lower keys. Bamd is now an outlier.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests