ATL: ISAAC - Models

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LSU2001
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4821 Postby LSU2001 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:25 pm

It does seem that the Euro is sticking to its guns about the trough picking up Issac and moving him north and northeast. The GFS shows the storm missing the trough and wandering slowly north and west. Once again it comes down to timing
Tim
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Re:

#4822 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:26 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Really the GFS and Euro are not that far apart at 72 hours, the difference lies with the depth of the trough across the northern Conus where the GFS has it missing the connection and the Euro doesn't.


I agree for 3-5 days out this is a pretty reasonable swath, either side both models shows effects anywhere from New Orleans to Pensacola regardless even if they are not the centerpoint.
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#4823 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:26 pm

Where exactly are ukmet and Nogaps on the Newest runs
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#4824 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:26 pm

Before we start a model war.....The euro picks it up, and gfs doesn't I still find it hard to believe the brick wall solution of the GFS with a weakness present. I know the weakness is not GREAT/STRONG, but it is enough to catch it somewhat. We shall see....I would favor a middle of the road track due to uncertainty.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4825 Postby Meteorcane » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:26 pm

That has turned into a USA vs the world model war it seems, although I lean towards the Euro solution, because I believe the shortwave will be intense enough to draw this thing north.
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#4826 Postby Jevo » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:27 pm

12z Euro +120

Image
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#4827 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:29 pm

The distance between Pensacola, Fla and New Orleans...is 168 miles (driving wise) So I don't see as that being a huge hugeee distance between the two models. I'm quite sure that gap will close in the coming hours..especially by this time tomorrow.
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Re:

#4828 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:29 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Before we start a model war.....The euro picks it up, and gfs doesn't I still find it hard to believe the brick wall solution of the GFS with a weakness present. I know the weakness is not GREAT/STRONG, but it is enough to catch it somewhat. We shall see....I would favor a middle of the road track due to uncertainty.


Agree DD. My feeling is GFS will shift East either tonight, 0z, or 12z tomorrow.
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rainstorm

#4829 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:30 pm

yea, euro builds the ridge after landfall so isaac doesnt head ne
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Re: Re:

#4830 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:31 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Before we start a model war.....The euro picks it up, and gfs doesn't I still find it hard to believe the brick wall solution of the GFS with a weakness present. I know the weakness is not GREAT/STRONG, but it is enough to catch it somewhat. We shall see....I would favor a middle of the road track due to uncertainty.


Agree DD. My feeling is GFS will shift East either tonight, 0z, or 12z tomorrow.



they both have a building ridge blocking ne movement from isaac. not sure the GFS will budge
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Re:

#4831 Postby LaBreeze » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:41 pm

rainstorm wrote:yea, euro builds the ridge after landfall so isaac doesnt head ne

What would that do to Isaac's direction? Would he head more to the west prior to/after landfall?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4832 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:44 pm

For all we know, the CMC could be right. :)
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#4833 Postby Comanche » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:45 pm

Very interesting the NNE movement shifts to a NNW heading after landfall.
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#4834 Postby jes » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:47 pm

Is there a model site that shows potential intensity? That's my biggest concern since I'm going to be affected no matter who wins the model war. Dr. Bill Williams in Mobile said it could come in as a Cat 3 --- he has never been an alarmist in the past.
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Re: Re:

#4835 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:48 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
rainstorm wrote:yea, euro builds the ridge after landfall so isaac doesnt head ne

What would that do to Isaac's direction? Would he head more to the west prior to/after landfall?[/quote

euro already shows landfall near mobile and it tries to head nne but the ridge builds over the east coast. i assume it will head nnw or north after that.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4836 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:56 pm

Some posts removed.

STAY ON TOPIC PLEASE. THIS IS THE MODELS THREAD, USE THE DISCUSSION THREAD FOR EVERYTHING ELSE.

Thanks. :)
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Re:

#4837 Postby jasons2k » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:00 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Before we start a model war.....The euro picks it up, and gfs doesn't I still find it hard to believe the brick wall solution of the GFS with a weakness present. I know the weakness is not GREAT/STRONG, but it is enough to catch it somewhat. We shall see....I would favor a middle of the road track due to uncertainty.


What's so challenging about this is that the models are doing the complete opposite of what their tendencies are. Usually it's the GFS under doing the ridge and so on.

While a 'middle of the road' track may help the forecast verify numerically, in reality, I think Issac will be forced to go one way or the other.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4838 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:02 pm

18z BAM's remain tightly clustered along Louisiana coast. Not a good sign.
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#4839 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:02 pm

@BigJoeBastardi

Amazing.. the mid point model spread is New Orleans. ECMWF tries to spare New Orleans with track like Ivan. Pick your poison



So what's it gonna be everyone?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4840 Postby perk » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:06 pm

I have a question for our pro-mets,and i ask that the Mods to induldge me since our next model runs are a few hours away.Say you're advising a client on Isaac and you have the Euro with a central GOM landfall supported by the cmc,hwrf,nogaps,ukmet,and the gfdl,but no GFS support.On the flip side you have the GFS with a western GOM landfall with the same supporting cast but with no Euro support.How would you advise the client knowing you don't have in your concensus both of your best performing models.
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