ATL: ISAAC - Models
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- LSU2001
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
It does seem that the Euro is sticking to its guns about the trough picking up Issac and moving him north and northeast. The GFS shows the storm missing the trough and wandering slowly north and west. Once again it comes down to timing
Tim
Tim
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Re:
Dean4Storms wrote:Really the GFS and Euro are not that far apart at 72 hours, the difference lies with the depth of the trough across the northern Conus where the GFS has it missing the connection and the Euro doesn't.
I agree for 3-5 days out this is a pretty reasonable swath, either side both models shows effects anywhere from New Orleans to Pensacola regardless even if they are not the centerpoint.
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- deltadog03
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Before we start a model war.....The euro picks it up, and gfs doesn't I still find it hard to believe the brick wall solution of the GFS with a weakness present. I know the weakness is not GREAT/STRONG, but it is enough to catch it somewhat. We shall see....I would favor a middle of the road track due to uncertainty.
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- Meteorcane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
That has turned into a USA vs the world model war it seems, although I lean towards the Euro solution, because I believe the shortwave will be intense enough to draw this thing north.
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- Jevo
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12z Euro +120


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Re:
deltadog03 wrote:Before we start a model war.....The euro picks it up, and gfs doesn't I still find it hard to believe the brick wall solution of the GFS with a weakness present. I know the weakness is not GREAT/STRONG, but it is enough to catch it somewhat. We shall see....I would favor a middle of the road track due to uncertainty.
Agree DD. My feeling is GFS will shift East either tonight, 0z, or 12z tomorrow.
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Re: Re:
Wx_Warrior wrote:deltadog03 wrote:Before we start a model war.....The euro picks it up, and gfs doesn't I still find it hard to believe the brick wall solution of the GFS with a weakness present. I know the weakness is not GREAT/STRONG, but it is enough to catch it somewhat. We shall see....I would favor a middle of the road track due to uncertainty.
Agree DD. My feeling is GFS will shift East either tonight, 0z, or 12z tomorrow.
they both have a building ridge blocking ne movement from isaac. not sure the GFS will budge
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Re: Re:
LaBreeze wrote:rainstorm wrote:yea, euro builds the ridge after landfall so isaac doesnt head ne
What would that do to Isaac's direction? Would he head more to the west prior to/after landfall?[/quote
euro already shows landfall near mobile and it tries to head nne but the ridge builds over the east coast. i assume it will head nnw or north after that.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Some posts removed.
STAY ON TOPIC PLEASE. THIS IS THE MODELS THREAD, USE THE DISCUSSION THREAD FOR EVERYTHING ELSE.
Thanks.
STAY ON TOPIC PLEASE. THIS IS THE MODELS THREAD, USE THE DISCUSSION THREAD FOR EVERYTHING ELSE.
Thanks.

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- jasons2k
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Re:
deltadog03 wrote:Before we start a model war.....The euro picks it up, and gfs doesn't I still find it hard to believe the brick wall solution of the GFS with a weakness present. I know the weakness is not GREAT/STRONG, but it is enough to catch it somewhat. We shall see....I would favor a middle of the road track due to uncertainty.
What's so challenging about this is that the models are doing the complete opposite of what their tendencies are. Usually it's the GFS under doing the ridge and so on.
While a 'middle of the road' track may help the forecast verify numerically, in reality, I think Issac will be forced to go one way or the other.
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
18z BAM's remain tightly clustered along Louisiana coast. Not a good sign.
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- Hurricane Cheese
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@BigJoeBastardi
Amazing.. the mid point model spread is New Orleans. ECMWF tries to spare New Orleans with track like Ivan. Pick your poison
So what's it gonna be everyone?
Amazing.. the mid point model spread is New Orleans. ECMWF tries to spare New Orleans with track like Ivan. Pick your poison
So what's it gonna be everyone?
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"If we are afraid to be different...how can we make a difference in the world?"
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
I have a question for our pro-mets,and i ask that the Mods to induldge me since our next model runs are a few hours away.Say you're advising a client on Isaac and you have the Euro with a central GOM landfall supported by the cmc,hwrf,nogaps,ukmet,and the gfdl,but no GFS support.On the flip side you have the GFS with a western GOM landfall with the same supporting cast but with no Euro support.How would you advise the client knowing you don't have in your concensus both of your best performing models.
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