ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxwatcher1999]

I still say landfall around lake Charles...that's just my opinion

[KG4HPN]

That detached band over Florida tells you it isn't pulling everything in. I still say it will though.

That detached band over eastern FL pennisula is pulling away toward the north and east isn't it?

I thought when I woke up this morning that it looked like Issac might have shed that outer rain band and wondered if it didn't indicated a contracting and possibly strengthening storm. I've been watching that convective band pretty closely, living on the east coast. The storms are rotating towards the north, but the band itself still looks to me to be slowly pulling west, not east.

[tropicwatch]

Recon on its way, should gives a better idea of movement over the next couple of hours.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Just went through a squall here in miami, 40 mph gusts at least.

[ConvergenceZone]

Regarding Isaac, sometimes I wonder if there might be some changes that occuredin the the Atlantic/Carib/Gulf that just aren't able to sustain anything other than a minimal hurricane. When you think about how long it's been since we've had a major hurricane hit the USA, it really makes you wonder. When you think about Isaac and all the others storms in the Atlantic so far, the conditions to build and sustains hurricanes just aren't there. While it's great news, it is a bit puzzling as to what's going on...

[Dean4Storms]

Regarding Isaac, sometimes I wonder if there might be some changes that occuredin the the Atlantic/Carib/Gulf that just aren't able to sustain anything other than a minimal hurricane. When you think about how long it's been since we've had a major hurricane hit the USA, it really makes you wonder. When you think about Isaac and all the others storms in the Atlantic so far, the conditions to build and sustains hurricanes just aren't there. While it's great news, it is a bit puzzling as to what's going on...

I believe it's the large plumes of Saharan dust, we know it effects them a great deal out east of 55W, only makes sense that it follows the waves into the Carib and Gulf.

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the rapid scan loops I believe the center is as depicted below, with convection wrapping 50% around the center now. It will be interesting to see if recon confirms this.

[gboudx]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the rapid scan loops I believe the center is as depicted below, with convection wrapping 50% around the center now. It will be interesting to see if recon confirms this.

*image removed*

If that's true, wouldn't that suggest the center is becoming exposed?

[ROCK]

that would be a good center fix....southerly shear still hammering it and the LLC looks a smidge exposed...

[ObsessedMiami]

Just checking out here in Miami. Squally and rainy here, more than yesterday even. Want to thank all those on here for the great info and my hats off to Rick Knabb and the NHC for some great work with a difficult storm. God bless those in the path of Issac.

[wxman57]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the rapid scan loops I believe the center is as depicted below, with convection wrapping 50% around the center now. It will be interesting to see if recon confirms this.

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/784/zztemp.jpg

That position looks correct. Center is now on the NE side of the convection. This would suggest a temporary WNW wobble, as the center follows the convection. However, as far east at the storm currently is, it's hard to believe it will move ashore much west of the Mississippi. Model guidance is in good agreement on a SE LA hit, and I'm in agreement.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hehe, I noticed that we don't have near as many people mentioning that Isaac is organizing like we had last night. I guess we've all been fooled too many times and are now in "believe it when we see it" mode...

[cpdaman]

if that's the center ole isaac lookin like he should prolly stop at a nursing home in naples

[tshizzle]

absolutely getting hammered in west Sunrise - worse today than yesterday even, knocked down 4 or 5 of my smaller trees, 3-4 huge branches off my 25+ft trees

[SouthDadeFish]

that would be a good center fix....southerly shear still hammering it and the LLC looks a smidge exposed...

CIMSS is showing easterly shear rather than southerly shear:

[Blinhart]

Is there a chance that there are still a few vortexes (sp) (spins) rotating around a larger vortex (LLC), causing this look. I know there has been multiple vortexes with this storm before.

[WxGuy1]

that would be a good center fix....southerly shear still hammering it and the LLC looks a smidge exposed...

CIMSS is showing easterly shear rather than southerly shear:

Yeah, that explains why the vast majority of the convection is on the southwest side of the storm. Typically, vertical wind shear will act to displace the heavier thunderstorms to the "downstream" side of the cyclone. Yesterday, there was weak to moderate southerly wind shear, which acted to help displace most of the convection to the northern 1/2 of Isaac. Today, it looks like there's northeasterly or easterly vertical shear, which is helping to displace most of the convection to the western or southwestern half of the storm.

[Time_Zone]

Isaac is now semi-exposed? lol man this storm really has been pathetic considering the hype. Not trying to be a downcaster but this thing has been a very poor excuse of a TC from the very start.

[tolakram]

To looks to be closing off the eyewall in this loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

latest image

[wxwatcher1999]

Isaac is now semi-exposed? lol man this storm really has been pathetic considering the hype. Not trying to be a downcaster but this thing has been a very poor excuse of a TC from the very start.

With it being poorly organized at this time would that warrant a westerly movement?