ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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wxwatcher1999
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#6101 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:30 am

I still say landfall around lake Charles...that's just my opinion
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6102 Postby KG4HPN » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:31 am

otowntiger wrote:
Sanibel wrote:That detached band over Florida tells you it isn't pulling everything in. I still say it will though.

That detached band over eastern FL pennisula is pulling away toward the north and east isn't it?


I thought when I woke up this morning that it looked like Issac might have shed that outer rain band and wondered if it didn't indicated a contracting and possibly strengthening storm. I've been watching that convective band pretty closely, living on the east coast. The storms are rotating towards the north, but the band itself still looks to me to be slowly pulling west, not east.
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#6103 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:32 am

Recon on its way, should gives a better idea of movement over the next couple of hours.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6104 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:32 am

Just went through a squall here in miami, 40 mph gusts at least.
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#6105 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:32 am

Regarding Isaac, sometimes I wonder if there might be some changes that occuredin the the Atlantic/Carib/Gulf that just aren't able to sustain anything other than a minimal hurricane. When you think about how long it's been since we've had a major hurricane hit the USA, it really makes you wonder. When you think about Isaac and all the others storms in the Atlantic so far, the conditions to build and sustains hurricanes just aren't there. While it's great news, it is a bit puzzling as to what's going on...
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#6106 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:37 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Regarding Isaac, sometimes I wonder if there might be some changes that occuredin the the Atlantic/Carib/Gulf that just aren't able to sustain anything other than a minimal hurricane. When you think about how long it's been since we've had a major hurricane hit the USA, it really makes you wonder. When you think about Isaac and all the others storms in the Atlantic so far, the conditions to build and sustains hurricanes just aren't there. While it's great news, it is a bit puzzling as to what's going on...


I believe it's the large plumes of Saharan dust, we know it effects them a great deal out east of 55W, only makes sense that it follows the waves into the Carib and Gulf.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6107 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:43 am

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Looking at the rapid scan loops I believe the center is as depicted below, with convection wrapping 50% around the center now. It will be interesting to see if recon confirms this.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6108 Postby gboudx » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:49 am

tolakram wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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Looking at the rapid scan loops I believe the center is as depicted below, with convection wrapping 50% around the center now. It will be interesting to see if recon confirms this.

*image removed*


If that's true, wouldn't that suggest the center is becoming exposed?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6109 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:50 am

that would be a good center fix....southerly shear still hammering it and the LLC looks a smidge exposed...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6110 Postby ObsessedMiami » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:51 am

Just checking out here in Miami. Squally and rainy here, more than yesterday even. Want to thank all those on here for the great info and my hats off to Rick Knabb and the NHC for some great work with a difficult storm. God bless those in the path of Issac.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6111 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:54 am

tolakram wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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Looking at the rapid scan loops I believe the center is as depicted below, with convection wrapping 50% around the center now. It will be interesting to see if recon confirms this.

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/784/zztemp.jpg


That position looks correct. Center is now on the NE side of the convection. This would suggest a temporary WNW wobble, as the center follows the convection. However, as far east at the storm currently is, it's hard to believe it will move ashore much west of the Mississippi. Model guidance is in good agreement on a SE LA hit, and I'm in agreement.
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#6112 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:55 am

Hehe, I noticed that we don't have near as many people mentioning that Isaac is organizing like we had last night. I guess we've all been fooled too many times and are now in "believe it when we see it" mode...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6113 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:55 am

if that's the center ole isaac lookin like he should prolly stop at a nursing home in naples
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6114 Postby tshizzle » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:55 am

absolutely getting hammered in west Sunrise - worse today than yesterday even, knocked down 4 or 5 of my smaller trees, 3-4 huge branches off my 25+ft trees
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6115 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:55 am

ROCK wrote:that would be a good center fix....southerly shear still hammering it and the LLC looks a smidge exposed...


CIMSS is showing easterly shear rather than southerly shear:

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6116 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:56 am

Is there a chance that there are still a few vortexes (sp) (spins) rotating around a larger vortex (LLC), causing this look. I know there has been multiple vortexes with this storm before.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6117 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:59 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
ROCK wrote:that would be a good center fix....southerly shear still hammering it and the LLC looks a smidge exposed...


CIMSS is showing easterly shear rather than southerly shear:

Image


Yeah, that explains why the vast majority of the convection is on the southwest side of the storm. Typically, vertical wind shear will act to displace the heavier thunderstorms to the "downstream" side of the cyclone. Yesterday, there was weak to moderate southerly wind shear, which acted to help displace most of the convection to the northern 1/2 of Isaac. Today, it looks like there's northeasterly or easterly vertical shear, which is helping to displace most of the convection to the western or southwestern half of the storm.
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#6118 Postby Time_Zone » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:00 pm

Isaac is now semi-exposed? lol man this storm really has been pathetic considering the hype. Not trying to be a downcaster but this thing has been a very poor excuse of a TC from the very start.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6119 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:02 pm

To looks to be closing off the eyewall in this loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

latest image

Image
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Re:

#6120 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:02 pm

Time_Zone wrote:Isaac is now semi-exposed? lol man this storm really has been pathetic considering the hype. Not trying to be a downcaster but this thing has been a very poor excuse of a TC from the very start.


With it being poorly organized at this time would that warrant a westerly movement?
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