ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Isaac looks much better than yesterday. The best it looks so far. Wonder if this is the start of RI some of the models are seeing.

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[tolakram]

If you stare long enough at this loop you'll go blind.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

I'll let you all make the conclusions.

[EBrads146]

I may be wrong but I believe the first signs of an eye may be showing up on vis now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

I think this is instead a combination of dry air entrainment and shadows from the afternoon sun. While I have no doubt that Isaac is strengthening, I humbly think an eye is a bit premature.

However, to cover all my bases, is there a recent microwave pass over the center?

[JamesCaneTracker]

195200 2541N 08635W 8411 01474 //// +170 //// 286072 073 053 007 01
195230 2540N 08635W 8421 01466 //// +179 //// 284073 074 051 006 01
195300 2539N 08636W 8405 01484 //// +181 //// 284072 072 050 005 01
195330 2538N 08637W 8413 01478 //// +185 //// 284070 072 048 006 01
195400 2537N 08638W 8408 01486 //// +181 //// 286071 072 050 006 01
195430 2536N 08639W 8413 01482 //// +174 //// 287069 070 048 007 01
$$

[PTrackerLA]

What do 74 knot FL winds equate to?

[cheezyWXguy]

I may be wrong but I believe the first signs of an eye may be showing up on vis now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

I think this is instead a combination of dry air entrainment and shadows from the afternoon sun. While I have no doubt that Isaac is strengthening, I humbly think an eye is a bit premature.

However, to cover all my bases, is there a recent microwave pass over the center?

Could well be. Like I said, I could be wrong. I checked again and a new frame came in, it really is hard to say but it does look like a minor lowering to me and it is circular. A baby step in the right direction, but like I said I could be wrong. This is has been a rather complicated storm.

And yeah Id love to see a microwave too, or a radar image but its too far from land for that.

[gwynne]

What do 74 knot FL winds equate to?

about 85mph

[Time_Zone]

What do 74 knot FL winds equate to?

Supports 70-75 MPH At the surface assuming it's not contaminated.

[JamesCaneTracker]

I'm not sure if it's a .9 or .8 conversion

A .9 conversion would equal 66kts. However SFMR readings were only in the 50kt range...

[PTrackerLA]

I meant surface winds. I think that may be enough to upgrade to 75mph at 5pm. It's borderline but they may go ahead and do it given the proximity to land and expected further strengthening.

[SouthDadeFish]

If Isaac is moving off to the NW, then the weakest winds should be in the SW quadrant. However, recon found by far the strongest winds there. How does this make sense???

[galaxy401]

FL winds equate to about 60-65 knots. That and the SMFR are 58 leads to believe it's currently at 60 knots right now.

[Hurricane Alexis]

MIMIC.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... hr_07.html

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If Isaac is moving off to the NW, then the weakest winds should be in the SW quadrant. However, recon found by far the strongest winds there. How does this make sense???

Ws just going to say this. Very odd. Possible that this section could lead to more convection and pul the eye towards this region?>

[capepoint]

If Isaac is moving off to the NW, then the weakest winds should be in the SW quadrant. However, recon found by far the strongest winds there. How does this make sense???

If that's true, it could be indicative of a tropical storm that is not all that well organized......

could have also been just a heavy area of t-storm winds or some other interaction...

[WeatherGuesser]

Pressure dropping, but the winds just won't spin up.

Just too big to get going?

[Shuriken]

If you stare long enough at this loop you'll go blind.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

I'll let you all make the conclusions.

That is unabashedly cool -- I hope someone is collecting the whole day's sequence and makes them available.

[SouthDadeFish]

Perhaps the heavier convection lead to the stronger flight level winds?

[Time_Zone]

Looks like we should have Hurricane Isaac

[BigA]

Most recent pressure per dropsonde is 982 mb, with an 11 kt wind, so probably in 981-982 range. Winds often take a few hours to catch up, especially with larger storms.