ATL: ISAAC - Models

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wxwatcher1999
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Re: Re:

#5481 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:48 am

southerngale wrote:
ROCK wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:What time does the GFS run?



few more hours...


In less than an hour.... which isn't all that much different than the amount of sleep I got last night! Image


I guess Isaac is keeping everybody up all night from Florida all the way to Texas
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Re: Re:

#5482 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:49 am

BigB0882 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:The NAM has been all over the place. Please don't use it for TC position. You will get burned! Just look what it was showing 12 hours ago, probably even 6 hours ago, a very different movement in the short term was shown and that has not verified. It can't get position right only 6-12 hours out. Why trust it beyond that, either?



so we throw out the GFS also and EURO for showing the same scenario? :wink:


Not at all. I am just saying I wouldn't even use the NAM to give other models credibility. Seriously, it has been that bad. Look at synoptics then wait for the next run of a reputable model to see if this westward trend is indeed continuing in the models. I think it will, FWIW, the GFS has been keen on it for days now and the GFS has been the clear winner with Isaac from the get-go.




I agree about everything you said up until you said the GFS has been the clear winner from the get- go.....I will disagree with that without getting into a model war..... :D
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Re: Re:

#5483 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:51 am

southerngale wrote:
ROCK wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:What time does the GFS run?



few more hours...


In less than an hour.... which isn't all that much different than the amount of sleep I got last night! Image



ha...I bailed. about 4 AM....glad to see you up and going this morning sunshine!!! :sun: :sun: :sun: :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5484 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:54 am

Geez rock...didn't see you much yesterday. Welcome back. :wink:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5485 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:02 am

10am NHC updated track

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Re: Re:

#5486 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:03 am

ROCK wrote:ha...I bailed. about 4 AM....glad to see you up and going this morning sunshine!!! :sun: :sun: :sun: :lol: :lol:


haha - I'm hanging in there! :)


Do you know anything about the HRRR and its reliability?
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#5487 Postby rainstorm » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:05 am

here is the hrrr

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t6&wjet=1

due west
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#5488 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:07 am

What is the HRRR, meaning what kind of model is it, and what is its strength?
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Re:

#5489 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:17 am

Texashawk wrote:What is the HRRR, meaning what kind of model is it, and what is its strength?


I was unfamiliar with it, but just googled it.


High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

A experimental 3-km hourly updated nest inside of the 13km Rapid Refresh (using the 13km RAP as parent model starting 4/14/2011, 13km RUC prior to that date).
Real-time products from 3km HRRR
The HRRR is fully dependent on the hourly-updating RAP running at ESRL, being initialized from RAP-ESRL analyses as of 4/14/2011.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/
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#5490 Postby gboudx » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:17 am

southerngale wrote:
ROCK wrote:ha...I bailed. about 4 AM....glad to see you up and going this morning sunshine!!! :sun: :sun: :sun: :lol: :lol:


haha - I'm hanging in there! :)


Do you know anything about the HRRR and its reliability?


This was posted on the Discussion thread last night.

viewtopic.php?p=2268420#p2268420

The image would have been valid for about 7am CDT for it's forecast. Isaac was further west and not as well developed as forecasted.
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#5491 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:24 am

Thanks, gboudx. I didn't see that last night. I saw a pro met talking about it earlier and wondered about it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5492 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:36 am

12z GFS +6

Image

12z GFS +12

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5493 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:37 am

GFS mirroring the NAM....that doesnt happen too much.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5494 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:38 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


30hr getting stronger? ok...right....still offshore moving west...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5495 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:38 am

Looks to be stalling SE of Lafayette.
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5496 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:38 am

12z GFS +18

Image

12z GFS +24

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5497 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:40 am

12z GFS +30

Image
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#5498 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:41 am

What's it doing? Crawling?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5499 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:42 am

wnw at 39H
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5500 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:43 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


heading to Warriors house....
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