ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

T#'s going up

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

[tolakram]

I know this is probably way premature and probably wrong but it LOOKS like it may have finally found a way to keep the dry air out. I am looking at the image tolakram posted at 11:35 AM I see what may be some dry air slots to the West but it looks like it should be able to sling that out and away instead of sucking it into the center like it has been doing its whole life.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The center pocket is dry air though. if you look at the hires loops you can see the shallow poorly defined eyewall with clear areas above. Dry air has been ingested fully into the center, IMO



loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

[wkwally]

I know this is probably way premature and probably wrong but it LOOKS like it may have finally found a way to keep the dry air out. I am looking at the image tolakram posted at 11:35 AM I see what may be some dry air slots to the West but it looks like it should be able to sling that out and away instead of sucking it into the center like it has been doing its whole life.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The center pocket is dry air though. if you look at the hires loops you can see the shallow poorly defined eyewall with clear areas above. Dry air has been ingested fully into the center, IMO

[ img]http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/7545/zztemp.png[/img]

loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

Do you think this dry air will prevent it from becoming a cat 2?

[gboudx]

I know this is probably way premature and probably wrong but it LOOKS like it may have finally found a way to keep the dry air out. I am looking at the image tolakram posted at 11:35 AM I see what may be some dry air slots to the West but it looks like it should be able to sling that out and away instead of sucking it into the center like it has been doing its whole life.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The center pocket is dry air though. if you look at the hires loops you can see the shallow poorly defined eyewall with clear areas above. Dry air has been ingested fully into the center, IMO

Mark thanks for the satellite images. It really helps to see the CoC, or at least what we think is the CoC.

I'm pulling for dry air to keep on en-training into it and keeping the winds down to a minimum as much as possible prior to landfall. I know the area it's targeting on the west side of the river and it used to have a lot more land, but is a lot of water now due to coastal erosion. It may not lose much intensity until it gets further inland.

[tolakram]

Do you think this dry air will prevent it from becoming a cat 2?

I'm not making a forecast, just observing. I think the NHC intensity estimates are the best forecast.

[wkwally]

Do you think this dry air will prevent it from becoming a cat 2?

I'm not making a forecast, just observing. I think the NHC intensity estimates are the best forecast.

Thanks still learning a lot.

[Sanibel]

Latest NASA GHCC still frame shows a pretty distinct eyewall.

[tolakram]

saved NO radar loop

DO NOT QUOTE THIS IMAGE, add a space [ img] to the image tag

[superstareporter]

Personally, I do not even see this as being a big rainmaker for New Orleans, there are summer fronts and ULLs that go through there that are just as intense as Isaac and probably dump more rain. We got 20 inches in like 8 hours in Pensacola a few months back. Yeah some houses got flooded and some cars got ruined, but this storm is way over hyped in my opinion. Not bashing the mets, just the people and media who are reacting to the reports and blowing them out of proportion. Storm Surge and Erosion on the beaches will be the story if anything with this storm. Look at the radar! There is barely any yellows or reds in there, and I have seen it where there was red all over N.O. and just stayed put as the storm built and dumped, not moving anywhere, or the storms trained in off the gulf from a cold front. And I will be back to eat crow if I am wrong.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[bbadon]

So if you get 3 or 4 VDMs on nearly on top of each other does that qualify as a stall

[GCANE]

CINH is eroding over LA & MS. Air is destabilizing.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

So called, mid-level dry-air slot could vanish in a few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Just stopped at navvaro beach surge coming up and over dunes flooding road and west end bridge is closed. on the way to gulf port area.

[Sanibel]

Just stopped at navvaro beach surge coming up and over dunes flooding road and west end bridge is closed. on the way to gulf port area.

Be careful. The worst of it probably isn't there yet. There could be 974 surge.

[wxwatcher1999]

By looking at recon fixes does it look like Isaac has stalled?

[windnrain]

Is this thing going to move west? north? I'm confused. The radar looks like it's about to hit venice and moving north...

[SunnyThoughts]

[Frank P]

Just stopped at navvaro beach surge coming up and over dunes flooding road and west end bridge is closed. on the way to gulf port area.

Be careful. The worst of it probably isn't there yet. There could be 974 surge.

Monitoring surge in front of my Biloxi Beach house.. its about 4-5 feet ASL right now, if it hits the top of the sea wall its 10 feet ASL.. will post pixs later... expect it to start picking up in a couple of hours or so..

[dazie]

Frank P,
Looking forward to those pics. Stay safe.

[EyELeSs1]

Looks like the eyewall may be trying to close off in the southern portion of the larger convective ring of clouds or 'dry spot' seen roughly in the center of Isaac's circulation.

Here is roughly the area I'm talking about:


This seems to be what radar is suggesting as it appears as if there is rotation in the convective burst on the south side of the 'dry spot'
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[DoctorBoudreaux]

Tropical storm watches going up for Beaumont-Port Arthur TX area. Storm surge should not be a factor as winds will be out of north and northeast, pushing water out. Main threat will be TS force winds and some rain. Another factor being discussed is strong, continuous northerly winds all the way up the LA-TX border. That coupled with low humidity and little rainfall raises the possibility of wind-driven wildfires in east TX, similar to last year's wildfire outbreak in central TX. There are many drought-killed and weakened trees, especially pine, in E and SE TX which have created a lot of combustible ground litter and standing timber that may also snap in only moderate winds, bringing power lines down and sparking fires.