ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#7281 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:03 pm

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Re:

#7282 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:04 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I know this is probably way premature and probably wrong but it LOOKS like it may have finally found a way to keep the dry air out. I am looking at the image tolakram posted at 11:35 AM I see what may be some dry air slots to the West but it looks like it should be able to sling that out and away instead of sucking it into the center like it has been doing its whole life.


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The center pocket is dry air though. if you look at the hires loops you can see the shallow poorly defined eyewall with clear areas above. Dry air has been ingested fully into the center, IMO

Image

loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html
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Re: Re:

#7283 Postby wkwally » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:08 pm

tolakram wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I know this is probably way premature and probably wrong but it LOOKS like it may have finally found a way to keep the dry air out. I am looking at the image tolakram posted at 11:35 AM I see what may be some dry air slots to the West but it looks like it should be able to sling that out and away instead of sucking it into the center like it has been doing its whole life.


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The center pocket is dry air though. if you look at the hires loops you can see the shallow poorly defined eyewall with clear areas above. Dry air has been ingested fully into the center, IMO

[ img]http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/7545/zztemp.png[/img]

loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

Do you think this dry air will prevent it from becoming a cat 2?
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Re: Re:

#7284 Postby gboudx » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:09 pm

tolakram wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I know this is probably way premature and probably wrong but it LOOKS like it may have finally found a way to keep the dry air out. I am looking at the image tolakram posted at 11:35 AM I see what may be some dry air slots to the West but it looks like it should be able to sling that out and away instead of sucking it into the center like it has been doing its whole life.


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The center pocket is dry air though. if you look at the hires loops you can see the shallow poorly defined eyewall with clear areas above. Dry air has been ingested fully into the center, IMO


Mark thanks for the satellite images. It really helps to see the CoC, or at least what we think is the CoC.

I'm pulling for dry air to keep on en-training into it and keeping the winds down to a minimum as much as possible prior to landfall. I know the area it's targeting on the west side of the river and it used to have a lot more land, but is a lot of water now due to coastal erosion. It may not lose much intensity until it gets further inland.
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Re: Re:

#7285 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:10 pm

wkwally wrote:Do you think this dry air will prevent it from becoming a cat 2?


I'm not making a forecast, just observing. :) I think the NHC intensity estimates are the best forecast.
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Re: Re:

#7286 Postby wkwally » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:13 pm

tolakram wrote:
wkwally wrote:Do you think this dry air will prevent it from becoming a cat 2?


I'm not making a forecast, just observing. :) I think the NHC intensity estimates are the best forecast.

Thanks still learning a lot.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#7287 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:16 pm

Latest NASA GHCC still frame shows a pretty distinct eyewall.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#7288 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:17 pm

saved NO radar loop

DO NOT QUOTE THIS IMAGE, add a space [ img] to the image tag
Image
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#7289 Postby superstareporter » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:19 pm

Personally, I do not even see this as being a big rainmaker for New Orleans, there are summer fronts and ULLs that go through there that are just as intense as Isaac and probably dump more rain. We got 20 inches in like 8 hours in Pensacola a few months back. Yeah some houses got flooded and some cars got ruined, but this storm is way over hyped in my opinion. Not bashing the mets, just the people and media who are reacting to the reports and blowing them out of proportion. Storm Surge and Erosion on the beaches will be the story if anything with this storm. Look at the radar! There is barely any yellows or reds in there, and I have seen it where there was red all over N.O. and just stayed put as the storm built and dumped, not moving anywhere, or the storms trained in off the gulf from a cold front. And I will be back to eat crow if I am wrong.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#7290 Postby bbadon » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:20 pm

So if you get 3 or 4 VDMs on nearly on top of each other does that qualify as a stall :?:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#7291 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:27 pm

CINH is eroding over LA & MS. Air is destabilizing.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

So called, mid-level dry-air slot could vanish in a few hours.
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#7292 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:29 pm

Just stopped at navvaro beach surge coming up and over dunes flooding road and west end bridge is closed. on the way to gulf port area.
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Re:

#7293 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Just stopped at navvaro beach surge coming up and over dunes flooding road and west end bridge is closed. on the way to gulf port area.



Be careful. The worst of it probably isn't there yet. There could be 974 surge.
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#7294 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:31 pm

By looking at recon fixes does it look like Isaac has stalled?
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#7295 Postby windnrain » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:33 pm

Is this thing going to move west? north? I'm confused. The radar looks like it's about to hit venice and moving north...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#7296 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:36 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#7297 Postby Frank P » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:36 pm

Sanibel wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Just stopped at navvaro beach surge coming up and over dunes flooding road and west end bridge is closed. on the way to gulf port area.



Be careful. The worst of it probably isn't there yet. There could be 974 surge.


Monitoring surge in front of my Biloxi Beach house.. its about 4-5 feet ASL right now, if it hits the top of the sea wall its 10 feet ASL.. will post pixs later... expect it to start picking up in a couple of hours or so..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#7298 Postby dazie » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:39 pm

Frank P,
Looking forward to those pics. Stay safe.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#7299 Postby EyELeSs1 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:42 pm

Looks like the eyewall may be trying to close off in the southern portion of the larger convective ring of clouds or 'dry spot' seen roughly in the center of Isaac's circulation.

Here is roughly the area I'm talking about:
Image

This seems to be what radar is suggesting as it appears as if there is rotation in the convective burst on the south side of the 'dry spot'
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#7300 Postby DoctorBoudreaux » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:46 pm

Tropical storm watches going up for Beaumont-Port Arthur TX area. Storm surge should not be a factor as winds will be out of north and northeast, pushing water out. Main threat will be TS force winds and some rain. Another factor being discussed is strong, continuous northerly winds all the way up the LA-TX border. That coupled with low humidity and little rainfall raises the possibility of wind-driven wildfires in east TX, similar to last year's wildfire outbreak in central TX. There are many drought-killed and weakened trees, especially pine, in E and SE TX which have created a lot of combustible ground litter and standing timber that may also snap in only moderate winds, bringing power lines down and sparking fires.
Last edited by DoctorBoudreaux on Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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