ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[expat2carib]

I can see the northerly movement in this loop.



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[LarryWx]

33mph sustained winds measured, so far by 41041
1521 29.1 kts N ( 360 deg true )

NW winds last hour w/ pressure down to 1009
center is likely N of 14.175

This is confirmed by the 2 PM NHC update, which has it up to 14.3 N vs. 14.1 N at 11 AM. So, it is moving WNW as opposed to straight west or south of due west.

[KWT]

Well there we have it, been upgraded right away, not really surprising, its presentation has been really good today!

[KWT]

33mph sustained winds measured, so far by 41041
1521 29.1 kts N ( 360 deg true )

NW winds last hour w/ pressure down to 1009
center is likely N of 14.175

This is confirmed by the 2 PM NHC update, which has it up to 14.3 N vs. 14.1 N at 11 AM. So, it is moving WNW as opposed to straight west or south of due west.

275 is certainly not WNW...not even close...thats far closer to due west than WNW!

The benchmark for the GFS is 15N at 46W within the very short term....will that happen I wonder?

[Buck]

I can't really see much northerly movement in that loop, as far as the center is concerned. Looks like its trekked mostly due west so far to me.

[hurricaneCW]

I say it could get to Bermuda, but I doubt it goes any further west than that although storms in the past have done the opposite of what models said they would do so it's not a definite.

[x-y-no]

The test will be if this buoy has a east wind in about 10 hours...per the NHC forecast

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

You mean west winds, I presume.

No east was correct, the NHC has it at 45.8 at 0z. If there is an east wind, then we know the center is south of 14.2(buoy at 14.175).

That would contradict the NHC forecast rather than being "per NHC" as you wrote - hence my confusion.

At any rate, the wind at 41041 has already shifted to NW (320 degrees) so it seems almost certain the center is north of that latitude.

[floridasun78]

This could go straight to Hurricane when Recon gets in there. It already looks really good and makes Isaac looks sad compared to it for most of Isaac's life.
Let's hope this one does actually recurve. I don't believe it will occur until much furhter west, if at all. The modesl have consistently been underestimating the ridge in the Atlantic this year, curving storms out prematurely imo. I would be watchign intently if I lived on the islands. (I'm sure they are!)

if their send recon

[Zampanò]

Second earliest L storm, and that's only by one day.

[KWT]

Recon hasn't been tasked yet, no need for it with the NHC track at the moment. IF the track shifts westwards much then recon will get tasked.

[cycloneye]

This could go straight to Hurricane when Recon gets in there. It already looks really good and makes Isaac looks sad compared to it for most of Isaac's life.
Let's hope this one does actually recurve. I don't believe it will occur until much furhter west, if at all. The modesl have consistently been underestimating the ridge in the Atlantic this year, curving storms out prematurely imo. I would be watchign intently if I lived on the islands. (I'm sure they are!)

if their send recon

So far no Recon is programed for the next two days.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU AUGUST 3O 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-103

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[floridasun78]

Recon hasn't been tasked yet, no need for it with the NHC track at the moment. IF the track shifts westwards much then recon will get tasked.

true their want see if next new model runs show more west track if do their may set recon for saturday

[floridasun78]

This could go straight to Hurricane when Recon gets in there. It already looks really good and makes Isaac looks sad compared to it for most of Isaac's life.
Let's hope this one does actually recurve. I don't believe it will occur until much furhter west, if at all. The modesl have consistently been underestimating the ridge in the Atlantic this year, curving storms out prematurely imo. I would be watchign intently if I lived on the islands. (I'm sure they are!)

if their send recon

So far no Recon is programed for the next two days.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU AUGUST 3O 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-103

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

their release new plan on friday let see what it say depend what models run show

[drezee]

That would contradict the NHC forecast rather than being "per NHC" as you wrote - hence my confusion.

At any rate, the wind at 41041 has already shifted to NW (320 degrees) so it seems almost certain the center is north of that latitude.

Definitely understand, this one is booking though. It will get to the buoy before 0z. Based on the new advisory...
She moved 0.9 in three hours..meaning she would be at to 46.1 at 0z. 21 mph over the last three hours at 283.02°

[floridasun78]

We now have Leslie!

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

their didnt want untill 5pm their did at 2pm i was thinking that wont affect land their waited untill 5pm

[SouthDadeFish]

For perspective of how quickly Leslie has organized this morning, here is an IR image at 12:15Z today:



And here is Leslie only five hours later at 17:15Z:



Notice the pronounced increase in banding, and the outflow remains excellent.

[expat2carib]

We now have Leslie!

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

their didnt want untill 5pm their did at 2pm i was thinking that wont affect land their waited untill 5pm

Here in the northeast Caribbean I'm confident that we will only see some outer band effects.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Here in the northeast Caribbean I'm confident that we will only see some outer band effects.

expat2carib, dont forget some high swells comming to the islands.

[Gustywind]

Here in the northeast Caribbean I'm confident that we will only see some outer band effects.

expat2carib, dont forget some high swells comming to the islands.

excellent point Cycloneye. Let's continue to monitor Leslie extremely carefully and hope that the NHC forecast will be right... bringing Leslie far away from our islands ...

[expat2carib]

Here in the northeast Caribbean I'm confident that we will only see some outer band effects.

expat2carib, dont forget some high swells comming to the islands.

Yes! Thanks Luis for pointing this out. And BTW 5 degrees north of due west isn't that much as well. I keep confident in the NHC and other models. If not there will be a big surprise for the islanders

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.