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drezee wrote:drezee wrote:33mph sustained winds measured, so far by 41041
1521 29.1 kts N ( 360 deg true )
NW winds last hour w/ pressure down to 1009
center is likely N of 14.175
LarryWx wrote:drezee wrote:drezee wrote:33mph sustained winds measured, so far by 41041
1521 29.1 kts N ( 360 deg true )
NW winds last hour w/ pressure down to 1009
center is likely N of 14.175
This is confirmed by the 2 PM NHC update, which has it up to 14.3 N vs. 14.1 N at 11 AM. So, it is moving WNW as opposed to straight west or south of due west.
drezee wrote:x-y-no wrote:drezee wrote:The test will be if this buoy has a east wind in about 10 hours...per the NHC forecast
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041
You mean west winds, I presume.
No east was correct, the NHC has it at 45.8 at 0z. If there is an east wind, then we know the center is south of 14.2(buoy at 14.175).
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:This could go straight to Hurricane when Recon gets in there. It already looks really good and makes Isaac looks sad compared to it for most of Isaac's life.
Let's hope this one does actually recurve. I don't believe it will occur until much furhter west, if at all. The modesl have consistently been underestimating the ridge in the Atlantic this year, curving storms out prematurely imo. I would be watchign intently if I lived on the islands. (I'm sure they are!)
floridasun78 wrote:TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:This could go straight to Hurricane when Recon gets in there. It already looks really good and makes Isaac looks sad compared to it for most of Isaac's life.
Let's hope this one does actually recurve. I don't believe it will occur until much furhter west, if at all. The modesl have consistently been underestimating the ridge in the Atlantic this year, curving storms out prematurely imo. I would be watchign intently if I lived on the islands. (I'm sure they are!)
if their send recon
KWT wrote:Recon hasn't been tasked yet, no need for it with the NHC track at the moment. IF the track shifts westwards much then recon will get tasked.
cycloneye wrote:floridasun78 wrote:TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:This could go straight to Hurricane when Recon gets in there. It already looks really good and makes Isaac looks sad compared to it for most of Isaac's life.
Let's hope this one does actually recurve. I don't believe it will occur until much furhter west, if at all. The modesl have consistently been underestimating the ridge in the Atlantic this year, curving storms out prematurely imo. I would be watchign intently if I lived on the islands. (I'm sure they are!)
if their send recon
So far no Recon is programed for the next two days.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU AUGUST 3O 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-103
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
x-y-no wrote:That would contradict the NHC forecast rather than being "per NHC" as you wrote - hence my confusion.
At any rate, the wind at 41041 has already shifted to NW (320 degrees) so it seems almost certain the center is north of that latitude.
SouthDadeFish wrote:We now have Leslie!
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012
...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.
SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
floridasun78 wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:We now have Leslie!
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012
...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.
SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
their didnt want untill 5pm their did at 2pm i was thinking that wont affect land their waited untill 5pm
Here in the northeast Caribbean I'm confident that we will only see some outer band effects.
cycloneye wrote:Here in the northeast Caribbean I'm confident that we will only see some outer band effects.
expat2carib, dont forget some high swells comming to the islands.
cycloneye wrote:Here in the northeast Caribbean I'm confident that we will only see some outer band effects.
expat2carib, dont forget some high swells comming to the islands.
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