ATL: LESLIE - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thank you Meri and Rip. I don't know where to go and look for the runs elsewhere, so I can only rely on them being posted here.

Here is another good site I found, for GFS & ECMWF model animations, several years ago:

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/

Here is the best general site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Riptide]

Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Interests in Eastern North America, particularly Canada should continue watching Leslie for indirect and direct effects. Chances are it could be right offshore.

[HurrMark]

Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.

Probably for the Canadian Maritimes...I don't see a threat to the US.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[drezee]

Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.

Probably for the Canadian Maritimes...I don't see a threat to the US.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I can't say that. The 0z euro was very close to having Leslie get entrained into the 500mb low over the Mid-Atlantic. The 12z GFS is also very close. It is the basicly like seeing if a winterstorm, will phase or not. It is close...what is a few hundred miles amongst friends...

[Riptide]

Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.

Probably for the Canadian Maritimes...I don't see a threat to the US.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I can't say that. The 0z euro was very close to having Leslie get entrained into the 500mb low over the Mid-Atlantic. The 12z GFS is also very close. It is the basicly like seeing if a winterstor, will phase or not. It is close...what a few hundred mils amongst friends...

That would be utterly ridiculous by all standards and historical perceptions, but since we are still 6 days out from real model agreement.....definitely a distinct possibility.

[drezee]

The euro no longer closes off the low. It instead sends a cat 3 into newfoundland at about 40+mph after the pressure rises 30mb from 928...Yuck. Now that is a horrible run for the maritimes...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The euro no longer closes off the low. It instead sends a cat 3 into newfoundland at about 40+mph after the pressure rises 30mb from 928...Yuck. Now that is a horrible run for the maritimes...

Actually Newfoundland isn't part of the Maritimes, rather it is in Atlantic Canada. The three provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island make up the Maritimes. The run is looking better for us, not so much for Newfoundland though.

[tailgater]

The NAM might interest some people. entertainment only.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/eta15hr_sfc_mslp.gif

[Time_Zone]

Looks like it'll stay safely off-shore from me in Nova Scotia.

[Frank2]

True about Atlantic Canada (my Aunt lives just the other side of the US/New Brunswick border, that along with Nova Scotia and PEI make up Atlantic Canada)...

P.S. Incredible that the GFS shows Leslie becoming a 971 mb low east of Hudson Bay - wow...

[Nimbus]

The models have been subtly shifting east, there were some New England landfalls earlier now it looks like the weak side of the storm may race past the Maritimes headed toward Newfoundland. At least Leslie is moving now.

[MJS1]

To my tired eyes,Leslie seems to expanding west and is basically not moving,,As long as it stands still,the steering winds can and will change..I dont think that anyone knows exactly where Leslie will make land fall. I still sat Florida

***MY OPINION ONLY>>LISTEN TO NOAA AND NHC FOR ACCURATE INFORMATION***

[rog]

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think it will hit florida?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think it will hit florida?

Because he just likes getting laughed at.