But the fire is so delightful
And since we've no place to go
Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!"
![cold :cold:](./images/smilies/cold.gif)
![Jacket :jacket:](./images/smilies/jacket.gif)
![froze :froze:](./images/smilies/froze.gif)
Hard to think about right now when they are forecasting 102 degrees through Friday in Austin.
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
![Wink :wink:](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Ntxw wrote:Alright now that it's September it's time to put out my thoughts and forecast for winter(Sorry Porta I'm taking a jump before you)
ENSO
Current values indicate weak El Nino may have taken hold. After looking at analog years with Nino's after Nina or Neutral couplet I believe our best fit situation is a low end moderate El Nino. Peaking around 1.0c - 1.3c anywhere from October to December is my pick.
It is also evident that it will be Central Based Nino in regions 3.4 defined by 120-170W.
Analog Years for DJF (Meteorological winter)
Best Fit: 1976-1977, 2002-2003
Temps for those two seasons
http://i46.tinypic.com/zxmxvo.png[/img][img]http://i46.tinypic.com/28l9xcn.png
Honorable Mentions - These two seasons were El Ninos after Ninas but were higher end moderate. Also had a lot of blocking.
2009-2010
1957-1958
http://i45.tinypic.com/wmh40g.png
Summary
So all in all what does this mean? It's likely to be a colder than average winter for Texas and surrounding states. Wettest areas will be the southern half of the state. The two best fit analogs suggest December will be the fun month with a quiet period in January. February could be average with a cold shot. Overall winter in terms of precip normal to slightly above normal statewide, wettest to the south less wet to the north (this is not snowfall just overall precip, colder temps can have above snow even with less precip).
One big caveat is blocking. 1957-1958, 2009-2010 was pretty much wall to wall cold with a pronounced -AO and -NAO. If these two features exists this year January and February could be very cold as well. Unfortunately they are hard to predict this time of year and we will know probably Oct or Nov. So right now it's best to stick with the more conservative solution.
Last season the analog years screamed warm and snowless (1975-1976, 2001-2002, 2008-2009), but being a cold monger I disregarded it. This year the analogs are much friendlier.
Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow
_____________________________________
Disclaimer: I am not responsible for any disappointments due to lack of delivery. I am just a wing of the PWC forecast center so any questions or concerns please direct them toward the chief forecaster. All forecasts are final, not valid in Austin or Wxman57's house (omega blocks).
wxman57 wrote:... or not.
It's a sad time of year for us heat lovers. Days are getting shorter, the jet stream is dipping south. I stop posting in "Talkin' Tropics" and look for the "Texas Winter" thread. Nothing to look forward to for the next 5 months but gloomy cold weather. Soon I'll be driving to work before sunrise and coming home at sunset. I miss summer already...
wxman57 wrote:... or not.
It's a sad time of year for us heat lovers. Days are getting shorter, the jet stream is dipping south. I stop posting in "Talkin' Tropics" and look for the "Texas Winter" thread. Nothing to look forward to for the next 5 months but gloomy cold weather. Soon I'll be driving to work before sunrise and coming home at sunset. I miss summer already...
iorange55 wrote:Huffingtonpost article on this upcoming winter...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/12/arctic-ice-melt-extreme-weather_n_1878833.html?ncid=webmail3
Nothing really "new" but it's an interesting read, I suppose.
Ntxw wrote:Old farmer's Almanac has their predictions out, always entertaining![]()
They're using good ole Nino forecasting
http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange
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