Texas Winter 2012-2013
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4174
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
There is a powerful Aleutian/Bering storm hitting near Anchorage with several more to swing through this month. It is partially responsible for changing the 5h pattern that will drive down the cold front this weekend. Hopefully this is a sign that lows over this region will continue it's barrage through winter. The pattern on the maps are indicative of cold outbreaks *if this were winter * but it's Sept.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... orld/71969
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... orld/71969
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Ntxw wrote:Alright now that it's September it's time to put out my thoughts and forecast for winter(Sorry Porta I'm taking a jump before you )
ENSO
Current values indicate weak El Nino may have taken hold. After looking at analog years with Nino's after Nina or Neutral couplet I believe our best fit situation is a low end moderate El Nino. Peaking around 1.0c - 1.3c anywhere from October to December is my pick.
It is also evident that it will be Central Based Nino in regions 3.4 defined by 120-170W.
Analog Years for DJF (Meteorological winter)
Best Fit: 1976-1977, 2002-2003
Temps for those two seasons
http://i46.tinypic.com/zxmxvo.png[/img][img]http://i46.tinypic.com/28l9xcn.png
Honorable Mentions - These two seasons were El Ninos after Ninas but were higher end moderate. Also had a lot of blocking.
2009-2010
1957-1958
http://i45.tinypic.com/wmh40g.png
Summary
So all in all what does this mean? It's likely to be a colder than average winter for Texas and surrounding states. Wettest areas will be the southern half of the state. The two best fit analogs suggest December will be the fun month with a quiet period in January. February could be average with a cold shot. Overall winter in terms of precip normal to slightly above normal statewide, wettest to the south less wet to the north (this is not snowfall just overall precip, colder temps can have above snow even with less precip).
One big caveat is blocking. 1957-1958, 2009-2010 was pretty much wall to wall cold with a pronounced -AO and -NAO. If these two features exists this year January and February could be very cold as well. Unfortunately they are hard to predict this time of year and we will know probably Oct or Nov. So right now it's best to stick with the more conservative solution.
Last season the analog years screamed warm and snowless (1975-1976, 2001-2002, 2008-2009), but being a cold monger I disregarded it. This year the analogs are much friendlier.
Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow
_____________________________________
Disclaimer: I am not responsible for any disappointments due to lack of delivery. I am just a wing of the PWC forecast center so any questions or concerns please direct them toward the chief forecaster. All forecasts are final, not valid in Austin or Wxman57's house (omega blocks).
That is my thinking too.
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
The Grey Goose-swilling meteorologists at the Portastorm Weather Center continue to conduct research and write their 2012-13 Texas Winter Forecast. The official release date will be Sunday, September 16th.
Here is a little teaser:
The PWC is looking once, looking twice
for prospects of Texas snow and ice
The early signs are looking good
For a real winter in Wxman57's 'hood.
Here is a little teaser:
The PWC is looking once, looking twice
for prospects of Texas snow and ice
The early signs are looking good
For a real winter in Wxman57's 'hood.
0 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
- Terri
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:54 am
- Location: Williamson County - NW of Georgetown, Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Well, I am a craft beer swilling fellow Texan that you are KILLING with all this talk of ice and snow.... BRING-IT-ON!!!
0 likes
Terri
Rural Williamson County, Tx
Rural Williamson County, Tx
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Those in Texas will be happy to see this graphic valid from September 20-26. Will this early cooldown signal a very cold winter for the state?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
... or not.
It's a sad time of year for us heat lovers. Days are getting shorter, the jet stream is dipping south. I stop posting in "Talkin' Tropics" and look for the "Texas Winter" thread. Nothing to look forward to for the next 5 months but gloomy cold weather. Soon I'll be driving to work before sunrise and coming home at sunset. I miss summer already...
It's a sad time of year for us heat lovers. Days are getting shorter, the jet stream is dipping south. I stop posting in "Talkin' Tropics" and look for the "Texas Winter" thread. Nothing to look forward to for the next 5 months but gloomy cold weather. Soon I'll be driving to work before sunrise and coming home at sunset. I miss summer already...
0 likes
It will last throughout the rest of this month Cycloneye and early Oct! Sept/October patterns can give hints to how the winter storm tracks/cold pool will behave.
Usually the cool pattern is transient at this time but not the case this go around.
Usually the cool pattern is transient at this time but not the case this go around.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5677
- Age: 58
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
wxman57 wrote:... or not.
It's a sad time of year for us heat lovers. Days are getting shorter, the jet stream is dipping south. I stop posting in "Talkin' Tropics" and look for the "Texas Winter" thread. Nothing to look forward to for the next 5 months but gloomy cold weather. Soon I'll be driving to work before sunrise and coming home at sunset. I miss summer already...
Purchase the snow tires for your bike now sir. It is, as they say, on!!!!!
0 likes
- Janie2006
- Category 5
- Posts: 1293
- Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
- Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes
Okay, but that map is based on the GFS at a considerable distance in time from now.....it's almost in Kool-Aid land. A full latitude trough. The 500 mb map shows the 5400 thickness line dropping into northen/central Missouri! I'll grant that it's shown that particular solution for a couple of runs now, but I'm not on board with this yet. OTOH, could be a sign of things to come. I'd love this to be true, but I'm not biting on it at the moment.
0 likes
- Terri
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:54 am
- Location: Williamson County - NW of Georgetown, Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
wxman57 wrote:... or not.
It's a sad time of year for us heat lovers. Days are getting shorter, the jet stream is dipping south. I stop posting in "Talkin' Tropics" and look for the "Texas Winter" thread. Nothing to look forward to for the next 5 months but gloomy cold weather. Soon I'll be driving to work before sunrise and coming home at sunset. I miss summer already...
I am so sorry wx57... I used to live near Houston in Port Arthur...then moved to the Hill Country just to get away from the overwhelming humidity. While we still have humidity - at least I don't sweat between my fingers!!! If you want to ride a bike in blow dryer like heat, I invite you to try Loop 360 during mid August in Austin. After that, paramedical help may be required! For me, fall is a welcome respite from living in a "running clothes dryer set on high!" Don't fret! The world will continue to turn and summer will return! p.s. - the only thing I miss is the food - hard for a true blue Cajun to eat what passes for a seafood restaurant here. Bring on the
0 likes
Terri
Rural Williamson County, Tx
Rural Williamson County, Tx
- amawea
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 385
- Age: 72
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:36 pm
- Location: Horseshoe Bend, Ar. but from Baytown, Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
They are forecasting lows in the 40's for north Arkansas next Tuesday night so maybe Texas will get a little cool down and lower humidity. I have 3 daughters that live down there and they want snow thi swinter big time.
I hope Texas and Arkansas get a good snowy winter.
I hope Texas and Arkansas get a good snowy winter.
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Huffingtonpost article on this upcoming winter...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/12/arctic-ice-melt-extreme-weather_n_1878833.html?ncid=webmail3
Nothing really "new" but it's an interesting read, I suppose.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/12/arctic-ice-melt-extreme-weather_n_1878833.html?ncid=webmail3
Nothing really "new" but it's an interesting read, I suppose.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 223
- Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 5:18 am
- Location: Midlothian, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
iorange55 wrote:Huffingtonpost article on this upcoming winter...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/12/arctic-ice-melt-extreme-weather_n_1878833.html?ncid=webmail3
Nothing really "new" but it's an interesting read, I suppose.
Awesome. If it is colder and snowier, AGW believers cite AGW. If it's hotter or there are floods or droughts, AGW believers cite AGW.
0 likes
- Janie2006
- Category 5
- Posts: 1293
- Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
- Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes
^^ That's the kind of pattern cold weather lovers want to see. That colder air has no place to go *but* south, so one could safely predict a series of cold fronts making their way into the CONUS, especially through the Midwest and into the South....basically the eastern part of the country. The negative NAO doing its job...look at those height anomalies over central and southern Greenland.
Maybe we'll end up with some record-breaking cool air early in the Fall season. Hrmmmmm.
Maybe we'll end up with some record-breaking cool air early in the Fall season. Hrmmmmm.
0 likes
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3310
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Bastardi also talked about in a tweet this morning saying whenever there is a major Typhoo in the Pacific, translates to a trough in the East about 10 days out.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Old farmer's Almanac has their predictions out, always entertaining
They're using good ole Nino forecasting
http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange
They're using good ole Nino forecasting
http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Unfortunately, time management challenges have thrown a "wrench into the works" with the Portastorm Weather Center's 2012-13 winter forecast for Texas. And no, rumors regarding rampant Grey Goose partying as the cause for the delay are untrue ... no matter what Tireman tells you!
We hope to have it finished and released by September 23rd. I can tell you that wxman57 probably won't like our forecast.
We hope to have it finished and released by September 23rd. I can tell you that wxman57 probably won't like our forecast.
0 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
Ntxw wrote:Old farmer's Almanac has their predictions out, always entertaining
They're using good ole Nino forecasting
http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange
Here is the whole graphic from them that all will like if you believe this. I know that wxman57 will not agree.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests