ATL: SANDY - Models

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#401 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:31 am

Here's the hard left turn.

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#402 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:32 am

192

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#403 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:45 am

tolakram wrote:Good grief

saved image

Image


think there will be some cold air coming down the backside of that monster.. :grrr:
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#404 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:08 pm

12z cmc come left. very near south florida. wobbles wnw to nw like the gfs and euro just sooner.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re:

#405 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:12z cmc come left. very near south florida. wobbles wnw to nw like the gfs and euro just sooner.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Wow that is VERY close to SE Florida....if the ECMWF shifts left also, NHC will be forced to shift the track more left again at 5pm EST closer to South Florida.

Aric what kind of winds would you think would we see in SE Florida with it that close?

EDIT: looks like it clobbers the NE CONUS on this run.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#406 Postby artist » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:11 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
tolakram wrote:Good grief

saved image

Image


think there will be some cold air coming down the backside of that monster.. :grrr:


yeah, I was thinking the same, just as Wilma did, if I recall correctly.
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Re: Re:

#407 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:12z cmc come left. very near south florida. wobbles wnw to nw like the gfs and euro just sooner.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Wow that is VERY close to SE Florida....if the ECMWF shifts left also, NHC will be forced to shift the track more left again at 5pm EST closer to South Florida.

Aric what kind of winds would you think would we see in SE Florida with it that close?


I posted this a few pages back, but the GFS shifted a little left on the 12Z, the model tracks appear to shift left when the forward speed is increased.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#408 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:14 pm

artist wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
tolakram wrote:Good grief

saved image

Image


think there will be some cold air coming down the backside of that monster.. :grrr:


yeah, I was thinking the same, just as Wilma did, if I recall correctly.


yep, wilma came through and so did the cold air which was great since i didnt have power for 11 days, first 5 it was cool outside then it warmed up then we checked into a hotel.. :roll:
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Re: Re:

#409 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:12z cmc come left. very near south florida. wobbles wnw to nw like the gfs and euro just sooner.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Wow that is VERY close to SE Florida....if the ECMWF shifts left also, NHC will be forced to shift the track more left again at 5pm EST closer to South Florida.

Aric what kind of winds would you think would we see in SE Florida with it that close?

EDIT: looks like it clobbers the NE CONUS on this run.

if the euro shifts to much more to the left it too will be aproaching the coast.. as for winds. that depends on what cuba does. but if the models are correct and the convection is on the west side and its as strong as they say then its not out the realm of possibility to see hurricane conditions given the size even if its over the bahamas.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#410 Postby JC380 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:18 pm

tolakram wrote:Here's the hard left turn.

Image


So, this could potentially be a repeat of the Halloween Nor'easter of 91?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#411 Postby adam0983 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:25 pm

I am waiting to see what the Euro model will show this afternoon. If it shifts closer to Florida do you think Hurricane watches or Warnings will be needed?
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#412 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:26 pm

Hour 174 (10/31) has that low sitting right over top of me. Irene last year, I leave upstate NY in a couple weeks...looks like the tropics are trying to give me a goodbye present...one that isn't very welcomed. And 174 hours isn't in La la land any more.
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#413 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:27 pm

HWRF significant west shift in the short term, has Sandy moving over Grand Bahama Island: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... est054.gif
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#414 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:27 pm

adam0983 wrote:I am waiting to see what the Euro model will show this afternoon. If it shifts closer to Florida do you think Hurricane watches or Warnings will be needed?


Hard to have either of those when they expect it to be a TS as it passes by..
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#415 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:29 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
adam0983 wrote:I am waiting to see what the Euro model will show this afternoon. If it shifts closer to Florida do you think Hurricane watches or Warnings will be needed?


Hard to have either of those when they expect it to be a TS as it passes by..


They could put up a Hurricane Watch even if they expect a TS. Bahamas have a H-watch right now.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#416 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:29 pm

FYI=I am posting the models when they reach the timeframe of approaching New England at the Winter forum New England thread.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=113752&hilit=&p=2282962#p2282962
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#417 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:33 pm

I think as it stands right now that SE Florida could see 50-60mph winds with gusts in stronger squalls near 70mph. This could easily increase if the Sandy is stronger than forecast or moves closer to the coast than what most of the guidance suggests ignoring NGP.

This is just my amateur opinion and you should rely on official sources for all your Info.!!
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#418 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:33 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
adam0983 wrote:I am waiting to see what the Euro model will show this afternoon. If it shifts closer to Florida do you think Hurricane watches or Warnings will be needed?


Hard to have either of those when they expect it to be a TS as it passes by..


They could put up a Hurricane Watch even if they expect a TS. Bahamas have a H-watch right now.


Thats only about 100 miles offshore of SE Fla
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#419 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:50 pm

Image

Nogaps, in at Miami and out near WPB. It's by itself with this idea.
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#420 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:52 pm

EURO and GFDL are now rolling
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