ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneRyan]

Sandy has been an incredible storm to watch.

[Cyclenall]

Despite the threat Sandy poses, I'd probably give her the title of best looking storm of the season. I need to go to bed but if recon is staying out to sample SE quad, I might have to stay up... I'll be surprised if the landfall statement doesn't have Sandy as a major.

Agreed with the first part, the 2nd part...get ready to be surprised when you wake up!

Check out SSD ADT:

2012OCT25 041500 6.2 944.2/ +1.4 /119.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF -4.96 -75.32 EYE -99 IR 19.66 75.99 COMBO

Holy crap! Raw T at 7.0!!!!

Well, guess this is a learning opportunity that sat estimates aren't always accurate. Now, if it had several more hours over water? Maybe.

Just remember this SSD ADT value in the future when official intensity estimates are based off of these algorithms. This is why I don't trust them, but yet when there is no recon these values are taken as perfect. With regards to the Raw T at 7.0, what the heck? That is a strange value for it to spit out considering in the past I've seen better looking majors that didn't get to 7.0 or close to it. But even so leaving this at 95 knots at landfall with a 7.0 hanging above is quite insane.

The right-front quadrant is headed into a major city too! Santiago de Cuba is Cuba's second largest city, population nearly 500,000.

This is close to the worst case scenario for that city. Its hours from the middle of the night, its rapidly intensifying, the worst part of the hurricane is blasting the city, Jogs slightly more towards the city maybe catching some off guard (They shouldn't be but it happens) and the population density. A major disaster could be unfolding and the worst one of the season.

is it me or are the Mountains of Cuba not doing much disruption to the core, if what I'm seeing is right that could be really bad news for the NEUS in the long run

I personally don't think that's going to matter much when it comes to the NE of the US. I'm not an expert in the phase stuff but it might only matter to a point.

TWC is at it again, they said it weakened to 110mph from 115 when it was really a correction on the NHC's part

[ROCK]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

um, this map is interesting....

[bahamaswx]

Nearly halfway across and almost through the worst of the mountains. Still looking pretty good.

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

Oh man, the latest ECMWF determanistic 850mb wind speed does NOT paint a good picture for areas between North Carolina and New Jersey.....

Also a point, the run is showing Sandy moving NW near the bahamas to nearly make landfall in Florida before running parallel to the US coastline....

Wow what a few days we have ahead of us.

[bahamaswx]

Cuba sure didn't disrupt her much. She's got about an hour or two left overland, but the mountains are behind her.

[bahamaswx]

5am update tracks the eye over Georgetown.

[dexterlabio]

Just curious, when is Sandy expected to become a 'hybrid storm', if ever it would?

http://news.yahoo.com/hybrid-sandy-winter-storm-threatens-east-coast-064040714.html
This article made everything spooky when Sandy is described to merge with a nor'easter and an arctic blast. Also take note how much the article pointed out that the threatened area is highly populated.

[Cyclenall]

Cuba sure didn't disrupt her much. She's got about an hour or two left overland, but the mountains are behind her.

Yes, I think Sandy faired the most well for any mature tropical cyclone I have seen crossing over those mountains. I think the faster forward motion and the due north direction helped here. Its structure looks really good still.

5am update tracks the eye over Georgetown.

So how do you feel about this? Are you getting excited for the big storm coming?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

um, this map is interesting....

What's interesting about it? I don't see anything that could cause me to pause.

Something else I noticed it how much heavy convection has been over the nations of Haiti and the Dominican, this will likely cause satellite disasters over there as well. Sandy certainly has the potential to knock Isaac off the top in every category.

[afswo]

Wow! Just took my first look of the day and Sandy has maintained well as she moves through Cuba. Oh, going to be a long day...and weekend for that matter. One of the challenges of being a forecaster - figuring out her next stop after the Bahamas. The DelMarVa, New Jersey, New York, or New England? Time to get to work. Have a great day y'all! Let's hope that the damage reports are too bad for those already impacted.

[GCANE]

Looks like Sandy is going to hit the water running.

CAPE at about 2000.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Still has an eye - WISHE will kick in quickly.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 250155.jpg

[GCANE]

That ULL diving SE from the Canadian Maritimes is setting up an ideal poleward outflow channel.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

[brunota2003]

The eye is back over water. 5 to 8 feet of surge is predicted for the Bahamas, and 1 to 2 feet of surge for the Florida coast in the warning areas.

[ObsessedMiami]

Why is this forecasted to weaken from a Cat 2 to a Cat 1 over the Bahamas?

[cycloneye]

Looks like Sandy is going to hit the water running.

CAPE at about 2000.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Still has an eye - WISHE will kick in quickly.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 250155.jpg

Hi GCANE. What is WISHE?

[Cuber]

Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange

[NDG]

I think that at the end when they reanalyze Sandy, they are going to upgrade Sandy into a Major Hurricane as it made landfall, IMO.
An official Cuban weather station on the northern coast of Island, Punta Lucrecia, at 5 AM reported substained winds of 95 mph with gusts to 115 mph, 3 1/2 hours after making landfall and going over Mountainous terrain.
Lets see if Cuban TV later today starts showing some of the damage in Santiago de Cuba, which could be extensive, especially in the higher elevated portions of the City.

[cycloneye]

Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange

Thank you for the answer to the question about that.

[bahamaswx]

Still a significant easterly component to her motion that should've ended quite a while ago.

[weatherwindow]

I think that at the end when they reanalyze Sandy, they are going to upgrade Sandy into a Major Hurricane as it made landfall, IMO.
An official Cuban weather station on the northern coast of Island, Punta Lucrecia, at 5 AM reported substained winds of 95 mph with gusts to 115 mph, 3 1/2 hours after making landfall and going over Mountainous terrain.
Lets see if Cuban TV later today starts showing some of the damage in Santiago de Cuba, which could be extensive, especially in the higher elevated portions of the City.

Not just at elevation...Santiago de Cuba sits at the head of a fairly narrow bay(think Narragansett Bay)...with the landfall West of the bay entrance and 7 feet of surge driving up a narrowing bay which should add 2 feet to the surge on top of a spring tide of two feet give or take...thats an 11' tidal bore approaching the waterfront at about 5 kts..oops almost forgot about the 3' breaking waves atop the bore...I doubt they had time to break out the boogie boards:(