WPAC: Wukong - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 152.7E
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
It weakened and dissipated but it is organizing again and bad news...
Chances of Development: 90% went down to 60% went up to 95 % went down to 20% but went up to 70%
Some rains over Palau...
Chances of Development: 90% went down to 60% went up to 95 % went down to 20% but went up to 70%
Some rains over Palau...
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:37 am
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
look at the latest satellite loops. if its center is within the cloud cover near Koror then I think it is starting to develop now. it has good convective banding to its north. i'm giving this until midnight to see if development will continue.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:37 am
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
dexterlabio wrote:look at the latest satellite loops. if its center is within the cloud cover near Koror then I think it is starting to develop now. it has good convective banding to its north. i'm giving this until midnight to see if development will continue.
i don't think so... convection is still sheared from its center..
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:37 am
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3617
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
convection still a bit sheared to the west,, though it's really trying to stay alive... about to enter some not so nice environment, but who knows if this can pull a surprise,,
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:37 am
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
stormstrike wrote:
i don't think so... convection is still sheared from its center..
but i don't think the center is still east of 140E longitude but is already between 135-138E. NRL TC page has the position now at 8N 138.9E. but personally i can't see any evident circulation in there, and i think the CoC is now near Palau. i can be wrong though.
i appreciate the wishcast for it not happen. i also hope this won't develop for the Philippines already had enough from Bopha. though we should always look at every possibilities and monitor from time to time so that when the worst comes, you won't be caught off guard like most people.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
actually GFS is the only model indicating development into a TC. CMC and NOGAPS are now showing it as a tropical disturbance crossing Mindanao. GFS has performed well this year. The question is, is it still doing well at this time?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
big burst of convection over palau...this is the most organized it's been throughout its life...
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
euro6208 wrote:
big burst of convection over palau...this is the most organized it's been throughout its life...
I agree. Wind shear in parts of the Philippines (not directly hit by Bopha, Central Visayas) is decreasing.
Wind shear in Central & Parts of Mindanao is increasing. Its shape looks like Washi in 2011....
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
that burst of convection gives me the confirmation that the center of circulation is already near Palau. If that one is indeed a central dense overcast and the banding to its north would be maintained, i think this has a chance to be named. i just want to see if this development would be maintained or else it will remain as a disorganized mess,
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
dexterlabio wrote:that burst of convection gives me the confirmation that the center of circulation is already near Palau. If that one is indeed a central dense overcast and the banding to its north would be maintained, i think this has a chance to be named. i just want to see if this development would be maintained or else it will remain as a disorganized mess,
64.8 km/h sustained eastward winds were observed in Korror, Palau. It means that 93W’s LLCC is located south of Palau, and 93W has tropical storm-force winds.
0 likes
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
Meow wrote:dexterlabio wrote:that burst of convection gives me the confirmation that the center of circulation is already near Palau. If that one is indeed a central dense overcast and the banding to its north would be maintained, i think this has a chance to be named. i just want to see if this development would be maintained or else it will remain as a disorganized mess,
64.8 km/h sustained eastward winds were observed in Korror, Palau. It means that 93W’s LLCC is located south of Palau, and 93W has tropical storm-force winds.
Link ???
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
Convection is being removed from the center due to strong shear, 93W is done unless it can form another LLCC at where the deep convetion is
0 likes
This tropical depression may become TS Wukong within 24 hours.
TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 24 December 2012
<Analyses at 24/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°50'(7.8°)
E132°35'(132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°50'(8.8°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 24 December 2012
<Analyses at 24/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°50'(7.8°)
E132°35'(132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°50'(8.8°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests