Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Thanks. I guess I will disregard this run of the GFS and future runs until it figures out how to handle the start warm event.

Don't disregard the fact the ridge axis might be too far east. It's not bogus about that, it could very well be right in the PNA does go positive but in terms of the AO there is no support

[gpsnowman]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=1
I like the looks of this.

[HockeyTx82]

[HockeyTx82]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=1
I like the looks of this.

Whoops, think we posted around the same time. Haha

[gpsnowman]

No prob. You went one step farther and posted the actual graphic. Looks nice.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro goes east coast

Edit: pattern does reload on it so still more opportunities to connect

[HockeyTx82]

Perhaps all we needed to get cold down here was the NHL having a season. Funny how the first weekend of the season is when the cold might arrive.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF targets the cold to the East Coast.....The Ensembles will show us how confident the operational run is..

Day 9

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thats a mean East Cost storm.

[Ntxw]

We all wanted a +PNA early winter, too much of a good thing?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[PTPatrick]

This +PNA is wrecking our Colorado snow pack. We got plenty cold with this last system(-5 here this morning) but it was basically starved for moisture. Hopefully it reverses by February :-/

[BigB0882]

That PNA needs to back off!

[aggiecutter]

18z NAM says winter fun for North and Northeast Texas this week.
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi? ... ield=ptype

[Ntxw]

18z NAM says winter fun for North and Northeast Texas this week.
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi? ... ield=ptype

18z GFS is wetter too, not the run we want though. I'd like to see the Euro and 0z/12z on board

[aggiecutter]

The 850's and moisture look good for NE and E Texas, not sure about surface temps.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_nam ... precip.gif

[orangeblood]

Todays PNA forecasts on the operational runs of both the GFS and Euro are on the extreme end....their ensembles are much less aggressive with the PNA and so I'd expect the cold air to make it further west than currently depicted.

[Ntxw]

Todays PNA forecasts on the operational runs of both the GFS and Euro are on the extreme end....their ensembles are much less aggressive with the PNA and so I'd expect the cold air to make it further west than currently depicted.

A lot of it will depend on the MJO, once it gets to 7 we want it to weaken as it moves through 8/1/2. If it stays strong in those phases, the PNA will spike if not (as you mention the ensembles) and it weakens or recurves to 6/7 we're good. Phases 1/2 favors the east coast

Also if anything the arctic attack we're seeing on the models isn't the "motherlode" so to speak. It's just a spoke of the Arctic high which still remains over the arctic even on the ECMWF/GFS. Supports the come in waves theory

[aggiecutter]

18z GFS says a couple of inches of snow for NE Texas.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[Jarodm12]

Anybody notice snow moving into the texas pan handle at 18 hours on the rap model? I wonder if precip moving in from the south may actually be heavier than currently forecast for monday morning. Last night certainly was a surprise. It seems like current forecast models are having trouble with this pattern certainly consistancy is non existent.

[Portastorm]

Todays PNA forecasts on the operational runs of both the GFS and Euro are on the extreme end....their ensembles are much less aggressive with the PNA and so I'd expect the cold air to make it further west than currently depicted.

A lot of it will depend on the MJO, once it gets to 7 we want it to weaken as it moves through 8/1/2. If it stays strong in those phases, the PNA will spike if not (as you mention the ensembles) and it weakens or recurves to 6/7 we're good. Phases 1/2 favors the east coast

Also if anything the arctic attack we're seeing on the models isn't the "motherlode" so to speak. It's just a spoke of the Arctic high which still remains over the arctic even on the ECMWF/GFS. Supports the come in waves theory

What do you mean by saying that "Phases 1/2 favors the east coast"? Are you speaking of temperature anomalies? Phases 8 and 2 of the MJO favor below normal to much below normal temps for the Southern Plains and Texas.