Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us1225.php

Here is the 2004 storms upper air charts as it was developing. Check out the similarities and differences to this low pressure. The main difference seems to be the moisture at the 700 MB level. Well, according to the water vapor imagery, there is plenty of moisture. Im not sure at what level the moisture is at, but there is tons of it. I think we are still a few hours away from anything happening IF something were to even happen. Maybe not till 3AM etc.

I think the December 2008 event is a better analog. Set up is almost identical with positive trough coming through, ridge out west, and similar temps. One thing that happened then is that the shortwave turned neutral at the last minute over Houston and a coastal low developed. Lets see if we can pull off some magic like that again.

[Ntxw]

GFS still insists the cold slides east. Not much southeast either. Then afterwards trying to decipher it's long range is a headache, everything is everywhere. Lows in highs and weird wind flows, it's having a lot of trouble with the Pacific and renewed blocking to say the least lol

[gpsnowman]

That darn GFS. What does the Euro say about next week?

[Ntxw]

That darn GFS. What does the Euro say about next week?

It doesn't finish running until about 2 more hours

[gpsnowman]

Thats right. I never can remember these things. Thanks. Do you still feel like the models are off about next week, Ntwx?

[Ntxw]

Thats right. I never can remember these things. Thanks. Do you still feel like the models are off about next week, Ntwx?

I do believe they are breaking down the high too quickly. A 1045+ doesn't just disappear, the air mass is going to carry it's own weight down the plains. Core of the cold will still likely move to the lakes but it should be colder than what the models are showing I think for us.

[wxman57]

No change overnight. It's still looking like this week will be colder than next week across Texas. Let the warm-up begin.

[Texas Snowman]

You've got a LONG way to go this winter Mr. Heat Miser!

[BigB0882]

Weather.com has put a 30% chance of rain/snow in my forecast for this evening. Not a big chance but at least gives me a reason to stare at the radar all night. lol

[wxman57]

That darn GFS. What does the Euro say about next week?

Good news! It shows the high pressure center dropping south into Montana then slipping ESE across the Ohio Valley. Freezing temps barely reach the Red River next Tue/Wed then a nice warm-up across Texas with south to southwest winds! You will remember this week as the coldest of the winter.

[Texas Snowman]

Keep dreaming Wxman57, keep dreaming.

It's only mid-January.

You're going to be wearing fleece for several more weeks on your winter bike rides.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

TOLD YOU GUYS IT WOULDNT SNOW

[Portastorm]

The image below is my hope for wxman57 some time between now and the end of February ... this would be our favorite professional meteorologist, trying to get some exercise in downtown Houston ... in the snow!!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That's good stuff porta. Really starting to think he will get the last laugh though as he is slowly starting to pull me over to the warm side. Its 36 and raining over here and this might be our coldest day of the year. If its going to be like,e this would much rather see 70 or so. Sure the models are fun to look at two weeks in advance ( to some point) but let's face it I think I have better odds winning the powerball then seeing any kind of true article cold this winter around here.

[Portastorm]

That's good stuff porta. Really starting to think he will get the last laugh though as he is slowly starting to pull me over to the warm side. Its 36 and raining over here and this might be our coldest day of the year. If its going to be like,e this would much rather see 70 or so. Sure the models are fun to look at two weeks in advance ( to some point) but let's face it I think I have better odds winning the powerball then seeing any kind of true article cold this winter around here.

I feel your pain, brother. You're having the kind of weather we had yesterday in Austin. And I pretty much said the same thing. I hate wasting these cold patterns. If it's not going to snow or sleet ... give me 70s and sunshine. Yep, there I said it!

[Tireman4]

The image below is my hope for wxman57 some time between now and the end of February ... this would be our favorite professional meteorologist, trying to get some exercise in downtown Houston ... in the snow!!

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/7282/metrobikesnow.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Are those snow tires? He he he....

[gpsnowman]

NO Porta, NO!!!!!!!! We Texans have 70's or higher March through November. That is plenty. Now don't get me wrong, a sunny day in the 70's is just about perfect but spring will be here soon with several of those days to enjoy. Now it is time to enjoy what little winter we get in these parts. And that includes raw, damp, cloudy, 36 degree days. Think of the alternative. In July while all of us are baking in 100 degree heat, a cold winter day is going to sound so nice and so far away. Enjoy this while you can! Personally I would take a cold, damp 36 degree day any day. Porta, please come back to us!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah, mid April through late October can go die a fiery, hellish death.

I'm enjoying this weather, even if it is teasing us with 35 degree temps and rain. It's better than 90-100 and humid disgusting Houston weather.

[weatherdude1108]

NO Porta, NO!!!!!!!! We Texans have 70's or higher March through November. That is plenty. Now don't get me wrong, a sunny day in the 70's is just about perfect but spring will be here soon with several of those days to enjoy. Now it is time to enjoy what little winter we get in these parts. And that includes raw, damp, cloudy, 36 degree days. Think of the alternative. In July while all of us are baking in 100 degree heat, a cold winter day is going to sound so nice and so far away. Enjoy this while you can! Personally I would take a cold, damp 36 degree day any day. Porta, please come back to us!

I echo that gpsnowman! When it is cold, raining, and 36 degrees, all I have to think about is July or August, and/or the fact that we seem to regularly get seven months of "Summer," and five months of "cooler" (or "Texas Winter") , with the occasional Arctic Siberian Express trains passing through. On the other hand, I know I get a little stir crazy if I'm stuck in the house for more than three days because it's too icy outside. Had that test back in 2007 here in Austin during an ice storm. I think that event confirmed to me that I really do not care to live up north. But it is very nice to have the Arctic fun, knowing that it will pass in a few days or so, warm up, then come back later after a rejuvenating thaw, which is what I like about Texas Winters.

[gpsnowman]

True, very true. Our winter attacks last only a short while before they are gone. Also I would like to say there is no such thing as wasted cold, IMO