Texas Winter 2012-2013

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22788
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re:

#3141 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:18 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us1225.php

Here is the 2004 storms upper air charts as it was developing. Check out the similarities and differences to this low pressure. The main difference seems to be the moisture at the 700 MB level. Well, according to the water vapor imagery, there is plenty of moisture. Im not sure at what level the moisture is at, but there is tons of it. I think we are still a few hours away from anything happening IF something were to even happen. Maybe not till 3AM etc.


I think the December 2008 event is a better analog. Set up is almost identical with positive trough coming through, ridge out west, and similar temps. One thing that happened then is that the shortwave turned neutral at the last minute over Houston and a coastal low developed. Lets see if we can pull off some magic like that again.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22788
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#3142 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:43 pm

GFS still insists the cold slides east. Not much southeast either. Then afterwards trying to decipher it's long range is a headache, everything is everywhere. Lows in highs and weird wind flows, it's having a lot of trouble with the Pacific and renewed blocking to say the least lol
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

#3143 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:02 am

That darn GFS. What does the Euro say about next week?
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22788
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re:

#3144 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:03 am

gpsnowman wrote:That darn GFS. What does the Euro say about next week?


It doesn't finish running until about 2 more hours
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

#3145 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:05 am

Thats right. I never can remember these things. Thanks. Do you still feel like the models are off about next week, Ntwx?
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22788
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re:

#3146 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:09 am

gpsnowman wrote:Thats right. I never can remember these things. Thanks. Do you still feel like the models are off about next week, Ntwx?


I do believe they are breaking down the high too quickly. A 1045+ doesn't just disappear, the air mass is going to carry it's own weight down the plains. Core of the cold will still likely move to the lakes but it should be colder than what the models are showing I think for us.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22981
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3147 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 16, 2013 6:46 am

No change overnight. It's still looking like this week will be colder than next week across Texas. Let the warm-up begin.
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6179
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#3148 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:05 am

You've got a LONG way to go this winter Mr. Heat Miser!
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

#3149 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:23 am

Weather.com has put a 30% chance of rain/snow in my forecast for this evening. Not a big chance but at least gives me a reason to stare at the radar all night. lol
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22981
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#3150 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:44 am

gpsnowman wrote:That darn GFS. What does the Euro say about next week?


Good news! It shows the high pressure center dropping south into Montana then slipping ESE across the Ohio Valley. Freezing temps barely reach the Red River next Tue/Wed then a nice warm-up across Texas with south to southwest winds! You will remember this week as the coldest of the winter.
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6179
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#3151 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:59 am

Keep dreaming Wxman57, keep dreaming. :roll:

It's only mid-January.

You're going to be wearing fleece for several more weeks on your winter bike rides.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3445
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

#3152 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:02 am

TOLD YOU GUYS IT WOULDNT SNOW :roll:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3153 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:19 am

The image below is my hope for wxman57 some time between now and the end of February ... this would be our favorite professional meteorologist, trying to get some exercise in downtown Houston ... in the snow!!

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3154 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:28 am

That's good stuff porta. :lol: Really starting to think he will get the last laugh though as he is slowly starting to pull me over to the warm side. Its 36 and raining over here and this might be our coldest day of the year. If its going to be like,e this would much rather see 70 or so. Sure the models are fun to look at two weeks in advance ( to some point) but let's face it I think I have better odds winning the powerball then seeing any kind of true article cold this winter around here.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3155 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:40 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:That's good stuff porta. :lol: Really starting to think he will get the last laugh though as he is slowly starting to pull me over to the warm side. Its 36 and raining over here and this might be our coldest day of the year. If its going to be like,e this would much rather see 70 or so. Sure the models are fun to look at two weeks in advance ( to some point) but let's face it I think I have better odds winning the powerball then seeing any kind of true article cold this winter around here.


I feel your pain, brother. You're having the kind of weather we had yesterday in Austin. And I pretty much said the same thing. I hate wasting these cold patterns. If it's not going to snow or sleet ... give me 70s and sunshine. Yep, there I said it! :lol:
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5853
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3156 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:00 am

Portastorm wrote:The image below is my hope for wxman57 some time between now and the end of February ... this would be our favorite professional meteorologist, trying to get some exercise in downtown Houston ... in the snow!!

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/7282/metrobikesnow.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



Are those snow tires? He he he....
0 likes   

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

#3157 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:08 am

NO Porta, NO!!!!!!!! We Texans have 70's or higher March through November. That is plenty. Now don't get me wrong, a sunny day in the 70's is just about perfect but spring will be here soon with several of those days to enjoy. Now it is time to enjoy what little winter we get in these parts. And that includes raw, damp, cloudy, 36 degree days. Think of the alternative. In July while all of us are baking in 100 degree heat, a cold winter day is going to sound so nice and so far away. Enjoy this while you can! Personally I would take a cold, damp 36 degree day any day. Porta, please come back to us! :ggreen:
0 likes   

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3158 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:16 am

Yeah, mid April through late October can go die a fiery, hellish death.

I'm enjoying this weather, even if it is teasing us with 35 degree temps and rain. It's better than 90-100 and humid disgusting Houston weather.
0 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re:

#3159 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:26 am

gpsnowman wrote:NO Porta, NO!!!!!!!! We Texans have 70's or higher March through November. That is plenty. Now don't get me wrong, a sunny day in the 70's is just about perfect but spring will be here soon with several of those days to enjoy. Now it is time to enjoy what little winter we get in these parts. And that includes raw, damp, cloudy, 36 degree days. Think of the alternative. In July while all of us are baking in 100 degree heat, a cold winter day is going to sound so nice and so far away. Enjoy this while you can! Personally I would take a cold, damp 36 degree day any day. Porta, please come back to us! :ggreen:


:uarrow:
I echo that gpsnowman! When it is cold, raining, and 36 degrees, all I have to think about is July or August, and/or the fact that we seem to regularly get seven months of "Summer," and five months of "cooler" (or "Texas Winter") :roll:, with the occasional Arctic Siberian Express trains passing through. On the other hand, I know I get a little stir crazy if I'm stuck in the house for more than three days because it's too icy outside. :wink: Had that test back in 2007 here in Austin during an ice storm. I think that event confirmed to me that I really do not care to live up north. But it is very nice to have the Arctic fun, knowing that it will pass in a few days or so, warm up, then come back later after a rejuvenating thaw, which is what I like about Texas Winters. :cheesy:
0 likes   

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

#3160 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:54 am

:uarrow:
True, very true. Our winter attacks last only a short while before they are gone. Also I would like to say there is no such thing as wasted cold, IMO
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests