2013 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

gfs has been showing TC development for the past days, more ensemble members are showing this. this is surprising for me lol. my initial prediction might be wrong after all.

[euro6208]

historically, we are in one of the quietest months for the western pacific

besides 98W which is located near palau, the basin seems like it's reawakening...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

lower than normal pressures forecast...looks like a busy season ahead...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

March 2013 Numbers:

Tropical Storms (official) : 29
Tropical Storms (unofficial) : 28
Typhoons (official) : 18
Typhoons (unofficial) : 20
Major Typhoons(Category 3) : 12
Super Typhoons (240 km/h) : 9
Category 5 Super Typhoons : 5

Additional Information:
Strongest Storm: Utor - 215 km/h, 890 hPa (mbar)
Storms at Landfall: Sonamu - PHL, MY; Shanshan - PHL

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Visayas and Mindanao are hit by 4 consecutive named storms from Dec 2012 - Feb 2013. Bopha was the strongest, making landfall as a Category 5 storm.

However, this is so rare.

[cycloneye]

My WPAC 2013 numbers are 28/13/8.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

MY MID-MARCH NUMBERS:
26 - Tropical Storms
17 - Typhoons
13 - Major Typhoons
5 - Super Typhoons

COLOR LEGEND:
Far Above Average
Above Average
Slightly Above Average
Average
Slightly Below Average
Below Average
Far Below Average

[dexterlabio]

I can't give my own forecast numbers yet. I'm still suspicious if ENSO will be neutral all throughout the year. There had been times when ENSO Neutral was forecast but El Nino/La Nina caught us by surprise.

[cycloneye]

After the early January weak storm and the mid Febuary TD it has been very quiet in that basin. Let's see when things start to heat up.

[dexterlabio]

WPAC is in the dry phase of MJO and is weakening, maybe it will be quiet for the whole month I guess?

[dexterlabio]

Been seeing a lot of updates and forecasts on the Atlantic hurricane season this year....but how about the WPAC? I don't have links to SST's and anomalies chart or graphics for the Western Pacific, and I'm wondering if the current conditions are more conducive for cyclonegenesis compared to last year.



We're approaching the month of May, and as we all know majority of TC formations begin at that time of the year. I don't know when the MJO will strengthen again and return to the Pacific, but if that happens the TC action may begin in the WPAC.

[dexterlabio]

Strong MJO pulse coming over mid-May. Looks like stronger than what I've expected.

[cycloneye]

TSR May forecast=26/16/9

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ay2013.pdf

[euro6208]

Strong MJO pulse coming over mid-May. Looks like stronger than what I've expected.

this may potentially spawn our next tropical cyclone...i'm thinking a strong one...

[dexterlabio]

Moderate chance of TC formation in the SCS next week. That's when the MJO is expected to shift towards the Western Pacific.

[Typhoon Hunter]

That graphic not showing any chances of development in Wpac Dexter. Models not showing much either so I think our wait will continue for 3rd named storm!

[dexterlabio]

that was a hotlink, the graphic updated I guess...sorry for that.

last week it showed moderate chance of TC formation, but that was when the models were showing a strong MJO pulse hovering across Maritime Continent and WPAC...this week though, the MJO is expected to weaken in the WPAC, therefore no chance for TC formation again.

It already happened twice when the MJO entered a weak phase as it entered the Maritime for the past month. It didn't remain as strong as it propagated east.
Yeah i guess we have to wait until next month.

[euro6208]

The wpac is ready for primetime...now we wait...

[euro6208]

low pressure and forecast to further deepen and expand during August, September, and October...