2013 WPAC Season

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dexterlabio
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Re: 2013 WPAC SEASON

#21 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:13 am

gfs has been showing TC development for the past days, more ensemble members are showing this. this is surprising for me lol. my initial prediction might be wrong after all.
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euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC SEASON

#22 Postby euro6208 » Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:55 am

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historically, we are in one of the quietest months for the western pacific

besides 98W which is located near palau, the basin seems like it's reawakening...
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euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC SEASON

#23 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:09 am

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euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC SEASON

#24 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:46 am

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lower than normal pressures forecast...looks like a busy season ahead...
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Re: 2013 WPAC SEASON

#25 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:33 am

March 2013 Numbers:

Tropical Storms (official) : 29
Tropical Storms (unofficial) : 28
Typhoons (official) : 18
Typhoons (unofficial) : 20
Major Typhoons(Category 3) : 12
Super Typhoons (240 km/h) : 9
Category 5 Super Typhoons : 5

Additional Information:
Strongest Storm: Utor - 215 km/h, 890 hPa (mbar)
Storms at Landfall: Sonamu - PHL, MY; Shanshan - PHL
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#26 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:36 am

Visayas and Mindanao are hit by 4 consecutive named storms from Dec 2012 - Feb 2013. Bopha was the strongest, making landfall as a Category 5 storm.

However, this is so rare.
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Re: 2013 WPAC SEASON

#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 15, 2013 9:16 am

My WPAC 2013 numbers are 28/13/8.
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#28 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Mar 22, 2013 11:31 am

MY MID-MARCH NUMBERS:
26 - Tropical Storms
17 - Typhoons
13 - Major Typhoons
5 - Super Typhoons

COLOR LEGEND:
Far Above Average
Above Average
Slightly Above Average
Average
Slightly Below Average
Below Average
Far Below Average
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#29 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Mar 31, 2013 2:29 am

I can't give my own forecast numbers yet. I'm still suspicious if ENSO will be neutral all throughout the year. There had been times when ENSO Neutral was forecast but El Nino/La Nina caught us by surprise.
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:44 pm

After the early January weak storm and the mid Febuary TD it has been very quiet in that basin. Let's see when things start to heat up.

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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#31 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:49 am

WPAC is in the dry phase of MJO and is weakening, maybe it will be quiet for the whole month I guess?
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#32 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:43 am

Been seeing a lot of updates and forecasts on the Atlantic hurricane season this year....but how about the WPAC? :lol: I don't have links to SST's and anomalies chart or graphics for the Western Pacific, and I'm wondering if the current conditions are more conducive for cyclonegenesis compared to last year.



We're approaching the month of May, and as we all know majority of TC formations begin at that time of the year. I don't know when the MJO will strengthen again and return to the Pacific, but if that happens the TC action may begin in the WPAC.
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#33 Postby dexterlabio » Sat May 04, 2013 10:36 pm

Strong MJO pulse coming over mid-May. Looks like stronger than what I've expected.

Image
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#34 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 07, 2013 9:30 am

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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#35 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 10, 2013 11:42 pm

dexterlabio wrote:Strong MJO pulse coming over mid-May. Looks like stronger than what I've expected.



this may potentially spawn our next tropical cyclone...i'm thinking a strong one...
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#36 Postby dexterlabio » Sat May 11, 2013 3:01 am

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Moderate chance of TC formation in the SCS next week. That's when the MJO is expected to shift towards the Western Pacific.
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#37 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Tue May 14, 2013 10:47 pm

That graphic not showing any chances of development in Wpac Dexter. Models not showing much either so I think our wait will continue for 3rd named storm!
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#38 Postby dexterlabio » Tue May 14, 2013 11:47 pm

that was a hotlink, the graphic updated I guess...sorry for that. :lol:

last week it showed moderate chance of TC formation, but that was when the models were showing a strong MJO pulse hovering across Maritime Continent and WPAC...this week though, the MJO is expected to weaken in the WPAC, therefore no chance for TC formation again.

It already happened twice when the MJO entered a weak phase as it entered the Maritime for the past month. It didn't remain as strong as it propagated east.
Yeah i guess we have to wait until next month. :lol:
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euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#39 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 22, 2013 3:58 am

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The wpac is ready for primetime...now we wait...
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euro6208

Re: 2013 WPAC Season

#40 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 24, 2013 11:21 am

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low pressure and forecast to further deepen and expand during August, September, and October...
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