Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

some people on the island felt a tremor yesterday as an earathuqke occurred near us.
I didn't feel it.
http://www.eye4weather.info/alerts/mino ... -yesterday

[Gustywind]

Glad to have the infos! Thanks to you Msbee Nothing occured in Guadeloupe that's the good news. Whereas Guadeloupe Martinica and the Northern Leewards are since Saturday under an yellow alert concerning a risk of strong sea. Islanders of these islands should be carefull and vigilant, i hope so!

[tropicana]

UPDATE Sun Mar 10/13 715pmET Hazy sunshine, and very warm temperatures across the island chain today, but not as warm from Guadeloupe northwards with a northerly wind developing today keeping temperatures more mild. Most islands were rain free, the exception to this was Antigua and Barbuda overnight. The VC Bird in Antigua reported 4mm of rain on Saturday and a further and welcome 18mm of rain overnight, this would temporarily ease the surface drought to that island. Elsewhere, it was more of the same, dry and warm. The warmest temperature on Sunday afternoon across the basin was at Piarco Int AIrport in Trinidad with 33.1C 92F, matching last Thursday's high and hottest for the year. Compare that to the high of 18.7C 66F at Hamilton Bermuda today with frequent showers and periods of rain ( 9mm of rain at least) and cold northerly winds 25-30mph. The system affecting Bermuda is the same 990mb LOW which is well east of that island, currently near 35N 55W and is the one currently bringing rough seas to the Eastern Caribbean islands....this low will weaken and continue moving further away , bringing improving weather for Bermuda but it will take a few days for the rough seas to subside, possibly not until mid week. Back to the islands, 1/3 through the month of March, and the dry spell is concerning. To date for the month, no rain has been recorded at Piarco Int in Trinidad or at Grantley Adams in Barbados. Just 1.6mm of rain has fallen at Hewannora Airport St Lucia and 0.7mm at Vigie in Castires St Lucia, and 0.3mm at Canefield Airport Dominica. At Melville Hall Dominica...so far 10.7mm of rain has been recorded, 8.1mm at West End Anguilla, 22.0mm at VC Bird Antigua, and 23.4mm at San Juan Airport Puerto Rico. In general, the ongoing dry spell is not expected to end anytime soon, so conservation is key in getting through the next few months.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail in the NE Caribbean for most of this week. The seas continue very rough so dont venture on the water in the beaches.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST MON MAR 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND A
WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION....DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
SUBSIDENCE AIR BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. IN FACT 11/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.21 INCHES
IN COMPARISON WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.50 FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. GFS LAYER PWAT SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 1
INCH OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREA AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS SO FAR
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOUR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY WITH AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS 11/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND FCST UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SUGGESTS MAINLY NORTH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS BLW FL050
KFT...BCMG PREVAILING WESTERLIES ABV AND INCR W/HT WITH A PRESENT
WND MAX NR 70 KT AROUND FL350 KFT. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 71 / 10 10 10 10
STT 83 70 82 71 / 10 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 11 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:   Generally sunny and windy, especially over southern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[msbee]

:uarrow:
Glad to have the infos! Thanks to you Msbee Nothing occured in Guadeloupe that's the good news. Whereas Guadeloupe Martinica and the Northern Leewards are since Saturday under an yellow alert concerning a risk of strong sea. Islanders of these islands should be carefull and vigilant, i hope so!

Hi Gusty
Yes, we are on alert too for the strong seas.. the surfers are loving it though..just hope everyone will be careful.
Here are some pictures my friend took today

[cycloneye]

Great news as the board has been fixed with a new server that was installed. Now S2k is running smoothly.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST MON MAR 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HRS AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND SUPPORT A
STRONG SUBSIDENT PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT AND TUE BUT START WARMING UP GRADUALLY WED
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE PRETTY SLIM AND PROBABLY NOT WORTH MENTIONING.
RIDGE FLATTENS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS POLAR TROUGH TRAVERSES
THE ATLC WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENING SOMEWHAT WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL PERSIST THRU SAT WHILE
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. ALTHOUGH SWELLS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED...SWELLS ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT AND TIDES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST DUE TO NEW MOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 12
HRS AND REMAIN STRONG THRU THU AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS DUE TO LACK OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WHICH WOULD TEND TO
ENHANCE FIRE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 74 82 / 10 0 10 10
STT 73 82 73 83 / 20 0 10 10

[tropicana]

UPDATE Mon Mar 11/13 1115amET While there has been some increase in clouds over the Southern Windwards and Trinidad and Tobago due to a very weak trough system, this trough is moisture- starved, as evidenced by radar imagery and surface observations. This trough was responsible however for the 18mm of rain at VC Bird Antigua on Sunday, 12mm at Golden Rock St Kitts and 6mm at LeRaizet Guadeloupe. Overnight, 2mm of rain fell at Melville Hall Airport Dominica and just 0.3mm at Crown Point in Tobago. Do not expect anything than a brief light sprinkle or shower today, mainly across the Northern Range of Trinidad. Currenlty, there are reports of very light showers on Maracas Beach on the north coast of Trinidad. It will not amount to much. Other than that, water vapor imagery indicates very dry air re-invading the Eastern Caribbean from the north , it has already sunk as far south as the French islands ( Martinique and Guadeloupe) and will encompass the entire region by Tuesday. Dew points this morning have hovered 16-18C 60F to 65F over the Dominican Republic, as low as 14C 58F at San Juan PRico and 18C 65F near Antigua. The LOW pressure over the North Atlantic has moved further eastwards to near 35N 50W and continues to weaken... and behind it to the west, high pressure is building, this will build a ridge over the Eastern Caribbean and ensure a continuing basically sunny , warm and dry weather pattern for some time to come.


UPDATE Mon Mar 11/13 3pmET :- The high temp at Piarco Int Airport Trinidad reached 33.2C 92F this afternoon in spite of the cloud cover... officially the hottest day of the year so far. Other hot spots this afternoon were Crown Point Tobago 32.4C 90F and Point Salines Grenada 32.4C 90F..the first time these locations have topped temperatures this high for the year as well. The cooler drier air in the Northern Leewards has kept the high temp to 27.2C 81F at Golden Rock St Kitts and 27.3C 81F VC Bird Antigua in spite of lots of sunshine. The leading edge of the drier air was now located as far south as St Lucia as evidenced by surface winds (ENE and NE ) and lower dewpoints. Dewpoints in the mid teens Celsius across the Leewards, while more sultry 22C to 24C 72F to 75F across the Windwards.

[Gustywind]

UPDATE Mon Mar 11/13 1115amET While there has been some increase in clouds over the Southern Windwards and Trinidad and Tobago due to a very weak trough system, this trough is moisture- starved, as evidenced by radar imagery and surface observations. This trough was responsible however for the 18mm of rain at VC Bird Antigua on Sunday, 12mm at Golden Rock St Kitts and 6mm at LeRaizet Guadeloupe. Overnight, 2mm of rain fell at Melville Hall Airport Dominica and just 0.3mm at Crown Point in Tobago. Do not expect anything than a brief light sprinkle or shower today, mainly across the Northern Range of Trinidad. Currenlty, there are reports of very light showers on Maracas Beach on the north coast of Trinidad. It will not amount to much. Other than that, water vapor imagery indicates very dry air re-invading the Eastern Caribbean from the north , it has already sunk as far south as the French islands ( Martinique and Guadeloupe) and will encompass the entire region by Tuesday. Dew points this morning have hovered 16-18C 60F to 65F over the Dominican Republic, as low as 14C 58F at San Juan PRico and 18C 65F near Antigua. The LOW pressure over the North Atlantic has moved further eastwards to near 35N 50W and continues to weaken... and behind it to the west, high pressure is building, this will build a ridge over the Eastern Caribbean and ensure a continuing basically sunny , warm and dry weather pattern for some time to come.


UPDATE Mon Mar 11/13 3pmET :- The high temp at Piarco Int Airport Trinidad reached 33.2C 92F this afternoon in spite of the cloud cover... officially the hottest day of the year so far. Other hot spots this afternoon were Crown Point Tobago 32.4C 90F and Point Salines Grenada 32.4C 90F..the first time these locations have topped temperatures this high for the year as well. The cooler drier air in the Northern Leewards has kept the high temp to 27.2C 81F at Golden Rock St Kitts and 27.3C 81F VC Bird Antigua in spite of lots of sunshine. The leading edge of the drier air was now located as far south as St Lucia as evidenced by surface winds (ENE and NE ) and lower dewpoints. Dewpoints in the mid teens Celsius across the Leewards, while more sultry 22C to 24C 72F to 75F across the Windwards.

Thanks to you Very precious reports in the islands

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No changes to the dry weather pattern for the rest of this week for the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST TUE MAR 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. VERY DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT 12/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A PWAT OF 0.98 INCHES. THE GFS LAYER PWAT SUGGESTS PWAT
VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREA AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOUR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
FCST PRD. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL025-FL060 ...WITH L/LVL WND FLOW
BLO FL050 FM THE NE AT 10 KTS OR LESS...BCMG N-NW ABV AND INCR W/HT
TO MAX WND OF AROUND 65 KTS NR FL450.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SEAS AND SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SWELLS GENERATED BY SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS PEAKED YESTERDAY
AT BUOY 41043 AT JUST OVER 12 FEET. A SECONDARY PEAK IN SWELL FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT 7 FOOT OR GREATER SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IN
COMBINATION WITH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ALOFT AND LOWER
THAN NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES WILL INCREASE THE FIRE RISK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 71 / 0 10 10 20
STT 84 70 83 74 / 0 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 12 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:   Generally sunny and windy, especially over southern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[msbee]

We had a little rain but not enough to turn the hills green again. Everything looks brown. Dry air is staying with us.

[vbhoutex]

We had a little rain but not enough to turn the hills green again. Everything looks brown. Dry air is staying with us.

At least we are getting some green here is SE TX. We are back into drought and slipping further into it without much relief in sight. How long have you all been so dry? It is hard to imagine the islands as anything but perpetually green.

[cycloneye]

Here in Puerto Rico,we are also in a dry period as the rainfall so far in 2013 is over 2 inches below normal. And it looks like the dry weather will continue for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST TUE MAR 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THU THEN FLATTEN
OVER THE WEEKEND AS POLAR TROUGH ACROSS ERN NOAM MOVES INTO THE ATLC.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN DEAMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL
FLOW EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK POLAR TROUGH ERODES THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN
IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD SHOWERS. WINDS
ALSO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DECENT HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT. OVERALL...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 30 HOURS. AT THE SFC...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER
13/03Z.


&&

.MARINE...NNE SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND A NEW GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIVE-DAY FCST PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY DRY FUELS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. OVER
THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS POLAR TROUGH
WEAKENS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP
GRADUALLY. MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS PRETTY WEAK AND NOT LIKELY TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.
WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. ALL WEATHER FACTORS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 74 80 / 0 0 0 0
STT 74 83 74 83 / 0 0 0 0

[msbee]

Luis, do you know when the seas will subside? We still have rough seas here and a small craft warning.
Will that be over by Friday, do you think?

[cycloneye]

Luis, do you know when the seas will subside? We still have rough seas here and a small craft warning.
Will that be over by Friday, do you think?

Unless there are changes to the forecast the NWS says until Friday.

[Macrocane]

After a cold start to March the last 4 days have been very warm in Central America, at least in terms of maximum temperature. Fortunately another cold front is approaching. These are the observations for March 10 and 11, 2013

March 10, 2013

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.2°C (55.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.0°C (32.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19.8°C (67.6°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 9.0°C (48.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.2°C (45.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.8°C (78.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.9°C (58.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.6°C (78.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 40.0°C (104.0°F) Hottest since May 8, 2012
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 27.2°C (78.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 41.1°C (106.0°F) HOTTEST IN EL SALVADOR SINCE MAY 6, 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.8°C (78.4°F)

March 11, 2013

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.0°C (55.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.8°C (37.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20.4°C (68.7°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.9°C (48.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.5°C (47.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.7°C (58.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100.4°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.7°C (74.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.6°C (99.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.5°C (83.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.3°C (95.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.1°C (93.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.2°C (77.4°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. After the dry weather that Puerto Rico has been thru for the past few weeks, some relief is comming by the weekend but will not be suficient to turn the deficit of rainfall that PR has been thru so far this year into a surplus.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST WED MAR 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TOMORROW. A
TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TAIL OF A WEAK JET AND A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT 600 MB REMAINS BELOW 20 PERCENT
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY. A SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH A LITTLE MORE CHANCE OF RAIN...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS IN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK THE FLOW BECOMES
EASTERLY...LEAVING THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY OVER OR NEARBY THE
AREA WITH MODEST MOISTURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING
WAS A FIRE BURNING ABOUT 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRE COULD BE SEEN MOST OF THE NIGHT AND EXTENDED
AS FAR WEST SOUTHWEST AS GUAYANILLA UNDER THE INVERSION BASED NEAR
4800 FEET AND THE CLOUDS. ABOVE THE INVERSION...TOPPED OUT AT NEARLY
6400 FEET...THE AIR WAS MOSTLY DRY. THIS HAS KEPT THE CLOUD LAYER
QUITE SHALLOW AND INCAPABLE OF CREATING SHOWERS. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT APPROACHES AND THE SHEAR LINE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CUBA...SHOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
FORM BETWEEN 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE NEXT SHEAR LINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY AND STALL...LEAVING SOMEWHAT
BETTER MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. BETTER
MOISTURE IS FOUND IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER NEXT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TAIL END OF A STRONG JET AND ANOTHER
SURFACE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN-OVC AT AROUND FL050 EXPECTED UNTIL
13/13Z...FEW-SCT AFTER THAT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH DIMINISHING SWELL
FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW SEAS BELOW 7 FEET
FOR MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES UNTIL AFTER 8
PM AST FRIDAY. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AND WILL CONSIDER EXTENDING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BEFORE
7 AM AST TO INCLUDE THURSDAY THROUGH 6 PM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 80 71 / 0 0 0 0
STT 84 70 83 71 / 0 0 0 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 13 2013



Significant Feature: Surface trough over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 PM AST WED MAR 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRI MORNING THEN
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS IT BECOMES UNDER PRESSURE OF AMPLIFYING
POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE POLAR TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. POLAR
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
SHOULD BREAK OUT SAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK BETTER SUN AND
MON AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE USVI AS MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER.
HOWEVER...LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES BEST MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SAINT
CROIX. NEVERTHELESS...FRONT WILL STILL BRING THICK CLOUDS AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS BRINGING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS THEN DRY OUT MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS
AWAY AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ESTABLISHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW-SCT AT AROUND FL050 EXPECTED UNTIL
14/00Z...BKN AFTER THAT.


&&

.MARINE...NNE SWELLS WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI
WITH IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
WIDESPREAD THICK CLOUDS AND BETTER HUMIDITIES. MODELS ARE NOW
FOCUSING BEST RAINS OVER SAINT CROIX SUN-TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 75 82 / 0 0 10 10
STT 74 82 74 83 / 0 0 10 10