Florida Weather

[NDG]

Is nice waking up this morning to the sound of thunder and heavy rains, especially when it was very much needed. A very decent chance of rain for the rest of the day today across the Orlando area!

Northjaxpro, indeed it looks like that cloud cover could be your savior from any frost forming in your area Friday morning.

[NDG]

RAP model shows over an inch of rain potential total during the day today across most of central FL today, this is the most rain for many parts of this area since October.

[gsytch]

NorthJaxPro - frost cloth is very effective, and works very well down to 28F. There are heavier clothed versions that claim to 24F. eBay or internet searches will prove valuable. I've used it for years with great success. And..its inexpensive. NDG- while it rained this morning, and we had some thunder, it was like maybe .25" - not a drought buster! The radar is lit up in the Gulf but they have been breaking apart coming ashore. It is terribly dry here in West Pasco. It appears like a better chance this weekend?

[northjaxpro]

There is another shortwave currently back along the SE LA / Mississippi coast region which will swing rapidly east-southeast through the rest of the today into tonight. This should bring another round of rain and thunderstorms for portions of central and southwest peninsula late today and tonight.

So far here, lots of clouds and cool, breezy northeast winds gives it a "raw" feel today. Temps are holding steady in the low-mid 60s across the Jax metro area. Some light rainshowers came through shortly before noon, and that's about it to this point. We should get a bit more rain late today and tonight with the shortwave moving through the region. I anticipate though that rain amounts will be signifcantly higher farther south across the central peninsula.

I will take at look at the EURO and GFS runs and check on the latest with regards to next week's cool down once I get back settled at home later this evening.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Best weather I've seen moving through here in a long time.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I managed just over 1/2 of an inch of rain from earlier this evening. Cooler weather setting in now for the next 36 hours or so in the area before the front retreats back north as a warm front in advance of the next shortwave coming down the pike this weekend.

The models are indicating at this time the best dynamics appear to be just north of the peninsula for Saturday as the warm front will set up across South GA and AL. That is where the best convergence will set up and the potential for very heavy rain in those areas. The weekend looks warm and breezy with scattered showers and storms on Saturday. I think the better chances of significant storms across the peninsula will be Sunday into early Monday was the shortwave energy traverses through the Southeast U.S.

The models still show not much change from yesterday. GFS and EURO still have differences with the positioning and evolution of this weekend's storm system. The GFS showing a winter storm system developing from the Rockies east across the Central Plains Saturday and moving east through the TN/OH Valley region on Sunday. Then GFS moves the storm off the DELMARVA region. The EURO continues to show shortwave energy more elongated and suppressed father southward. This energy moves from the Southern Plains eastward through the Southeast U.S, and then forms a Low off the coast of SC/NC. I still lean toward the EURO solution tonight

One thing to note is that the models quickly return the 500 mb pattern to zonal across the Gulf Coast region and FL peninsula after this weekend's storm pushes off the East coast Monday. Should this verify, we will be spared of the cold air early next week. The Wednesday-Friday portion of next week is when I believe the coldest air mass approaches the peninsula. EURO shows another potent shortwave coming out of the Rockies and moving rapidly east moving through the TN valley and develop a significant storm off the N.C. coast by Thursday (3-28-13). A big Polar High Pressure is shown building south from Canada down into the Plains at 196 hours. This is when the cold air will approach the peninsula. EURO 192 hour model run has the 850 mb zero degree isotherm across North Florida at this point. Still a week or so with this, but will watch this closely.

Lots to watch over the next 10 days. CPC still expecting much below average temps for the Eastern U.S. right through the next 14 days with the negative AO pattern firmly in place.

[NDG]

I don't see that the 12z Euro shows H85 0 deg C isotherm to reach FL as last night's 0z run did.

I am leaning towards just a glancing blow of any cold air next week, with the core of the cold air staying well north of FL thanks to the PNA staying negative to near neutral through next week.
Not to say that parts of north FL could see temps in the 30s for lows by the end of next week also.

[northjaxpro]

NDG, I am thinking 30s for lows also toward the end of next week for my area. Yeah, NDG, I accidentally referenced yesterday's 0Z EURO 192 hr run which showed the 850 mb 0 Deg isotherm to North Florida. Good catch. Didn't realize I did that. It has been a long day. LOL.

More weather watching tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning. Currently 38.7 degrees at sunrise. Again, another crisp and cool morning in late March. No frost this morning, but that may be a problem tomorrow morning. I am still hoping that some upper level cloudiness will stream in from the west and northwest into our area to keep temps up and limit frost formation tomorrow morning. Will keep an eye on that.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Nice and comfy this morning in Hollywood Fl.. I read it will be near 90 this weekend. Up and down. No wonder so many people have colds. I think the strong cold front that was advertised for next week fizzled. A little cooler down here next week. Which is fine with me. Summer is almost here to stay down here and hurricane season is just around the corner.

[NDG]

Northjaxpro, I see that you may have lucked this morning from having frost but next week you may not be so lucky based that the models have been trending colder during the past 24 hrs.

[gsytch]

It was COLD at wake up! 44.8F in late March? I can almost guarantee March will come in overall cooler than January, and that AO has tanked to nearly record levels. In Jan this would have been devastating. What is everyone seeing for next week. My local forecasts: some showing a few days of 69/50 40's N and E of Tampa Bay, others 72/49 etc...

[Sanibel]

I think there was a sharp boundary between North and South Florida because we only went down to 59* or so. Cool, but the hazy sun already brought it up to 76* here and warm. Still this is another Global Warming-related shoulder season anomaly in my opinion. I've never seen it this cool in late March before.

[gatorcane]

Trend is downward on the temperatures across South Florida for next week. Quite cool for this time of year, but will enjoy it while it lasts

LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS TO BE FROM 1328 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION TO 1344 OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THIS USUALLY
MEANS THAT THE TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL VERY COOL. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IS SHOWING HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS TO 50S OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
SHOWING AT 4 TO 8 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
RUNS TO SEE IF THE TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE REDUCED IN LATER
FORECAST.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[northjaxpro]

Northjaxpro, I see that you may have lucked this morning from having frost but next week you may not be so lucky based that the models have been trending colder during the past 24 hrs.

Yeah, NDG the clouds that a couple of days ago I was hoping to stream in to the area indeed came to fruition. I was spared here with no frost and the low earlier today was 41.6 degrees. But, I am afraid I won't be as fortunate come Tuesday-Thursday of this upcoming week as models have trended colder, which I thought they would a couple of days ago. It is looking as if the normally colder spots, including my locale, are going to see temperatures approaching the freezing mark, especially Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The negative AO has tanked and we will really see the effects of this here after our stormy weekend.

Warm front currently across the central peninsula. Rain and storms are already firing along the warm front boundary just south of the I-4 corridor. This precip coverage will expand and lift northward overnight and should be in my region by late morning. Heavy rain and possible severe storms will be all across the northern peninsula tomorrow as the warm front lifts north right over the area. expecting 1-2 inch rainfall totals, but where the best convergence sets up, amounts of 3-5 inches are possible.

Sunday will see more storms fire up in advance of the cold front, which will move across the peninsula. So, will follow that closely. Very active weekend of weather, then the unseasonable cold to follow.

[Sanibel]

Quickly changing weather from yesterday. There was a violent thunderstorm to our north on the warm front after unusually clear, dry, cool skies only 24 hours earlier.

[gsytch]

Got some much needed rain last night, about .35" in some heavier showers. Nice to wake up and have everything wet. It is now overcast - although it is high overcast - 74F with dewpoint at 68F. Humid. MOre rain Sunday? Hope so

[northjaxpro]

SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 5 p.m today for much of South Georgia and North Florida, mainly from I-10 corridor northward. This includes the Jax metro area.

The warm front is currently right over and along the I-10 corridor and the rain started here at my locale about an half hour ago. Radar shows a batch of strong to severe thunderstorms currently moving away from the Tallahassee area and moving eastward. It will be a very active day and night with storms and heavy rain.

[northjaxpro]

[northjaxpro]

There is a band of possible severe thunderstorms on radar moving right down I-10 from Live Oak through Lake City and approaching Sanderson in Baker county. These storms will be in Jax area within the hour. NWS Jax has severe thunderstorm warnings up for these storms currently.