Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

[Frank2]

Isn't the GFS based on climatology? If so, then it makes sense for it to want to show a system down there during May, because May has the first small maximum in the Western Caribbean, but in reality the southwestern Caribbean has tropical storm potential almost year-round...

[wxman57]

Isn't the GFS based on climatology? If so, then it makes sense for it to want to show a system down there during May, because May has the first small maximum in the Western Caribbean, but in reality the southwestern Caribbean has tropical storm potential almost year-round...

I wouldn't say that the GFS is based upon climatology. It does begin seeing convection in the southern Caribbean every year around this time and it tends to indicate development of a number of pre-season lows/storms down there.

[wxman57]

Latest GFS runs are abandoning the idea of a TC in the western Caribbean next week. The 12Z briefly has a weak low there (along a cold front boundary) but that's about it.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yeah, at least for the time being the GFS isn't as optimistic. However, it does continue to show much above-average precipitation in the Caribbean in late May, so it warrants a mention.

The GFS's tendency to move the MJO across the globe too quickly may be catching up to it right now.

[cycloneye]

Wet Caribbean on the last week of May if the forecast pans out but no TC so far.

[Hurricaneman]

Look for between June 2-10 for development IMO based on the MJO and climatology east of Central America

[South Texas Storms]

Luis, do you have a link to the other Tropical Tidbit's models besides the basic ones from this link? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

That link doesn't have the CFS maps on it.

[cycloneye]

Luis, do you have a link to the other Tropical Tidbit's models besides the basic ones from this link? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

That link doesn't have the CFS maps on it.

I asked him that question and he said no CFS yet for public but soon will add those to the site.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

"...The Week-2 outlook is based primarily on dynamical model forecasts since uncertainty is high regarding the evolution of the MJO. Models are in reasonably good agreement for above (below) average rainfall across Central America/southwest Caribbean Sea (equatorial western Indian Ocean). Conditions for the formation of an early season tropical cyclone could become favorable by the beginning of June across the southwest Caribbean Sea."

[South Texas Storms]

Luis, do you have a link to the other Tropical Tidbit's models besides the basic ones from this link? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

That link doesn't have the CFS maps on it.

I asked him that question and he said no CFS yet for public but soon will add those to the site.

Thank you sir. I am looking forward to it.

[ROCK]

starting to heat up in the carib and GOM...only mid-May

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

though shear is typical for mid May....not quite right out there...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[cycloneye]

Well folks,this is the GEM aka CMC that is showing development in the Western Caribbean by Memorial day weekend but there is no consensus so far as the main models GFS,ECMWF don't have this. Let's see what occurs in the next few days to see if the models come to agreement or not.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS is starting to show a weak low at day16, I would like it to show it in shorter range before I get excited

[floridasun78]

issue this time year alot model have ghost storms

[WeatherGuesser]

issue this time year alot model have ghost storms

I try to read your posts, but I can never figure them out.

[floridasun78]

issue this time year alot model have ghost storms

I try to read your posts, but I can never figure them out.

what i saying model like show ghost storms this time a year

[Hurricaneman]

issue this time year alot model have ghost storms

I try to read your posts, but I can never figure them out.

what i saying model like show ghost storms this time a year

Translation: The models like to show ghost storms this time of year
and I will tend to agree, sometimes even multiple phony storms will be seen by the models but most times these phony storms in the models are caused by convective feedback especially what is seen in the current CMC 240hr depiction or the CMC in general

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS develops a low pressure east of Belieze from entraining a pacific low at 336 hrs but its still in fantasy range, if its not within 192hrs its really not worth looking at

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like the tropical wave just east of the islands may be in the right place at the right time toward mid-late week for development.

[cycloneye]

IF TC development doesn't occur,the sure thing is it will be very rainy in most of the Caribbean starting on the 20th and lasting thru Memorial day weekend.