Discussion (May 18-19-20-21) Moore Tornado EF-5 from NWS

[RL3AO]

Decent looking setup today. Tomorrow looks like it has much more potential though.

[WeatherGuesser]

Guess the new MD and possible watch are to the north and west of the active WW.

[Bunkertor]

SPC has put the gloves off | WW #170

[CrazyC83]

Gotta love chasers and Twitter...I remember when I first joined in 2006, we were literally the lead stream to everything and direct from the local TV stations...

[artist]

[WeatherGuesser]

WW172 in process, SD

[artist]

[WeatherGuesser]

Currently 13 Thunderstorm Warnings, at least one in FL though.


Maybe some rotation near Utica, KS

[RL3AO]

Maybe some rotation near Utica, KS

Little bit. One to watch.

[Bunkertor]

Wow. That are LCLs
@ Congrats on the big win @ RL

[WeatherGuesser]

First TOR of the day up for NE

[WeatherGuesser]

Southern Ness County, KS cell:

[RL3AO]

[CrazyC83]

The other tornado warned cell is in Shannon County, SD - among the poorest counties in America.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the dynamics, it appears the best tornado potential will be in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Shear is lacking farther south, even though the instability is off the charts.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest from Dr Greg Forbes.

Dr. Forbes updated numbers..

Saturday, May 18

A severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak begins by late afternoon and continues to around midnight in the extreme east TX panhandle, west and north-central OK, west and central NE, west and central KS, SD, extreme south-central and southeast ND, north MN.

TOR:CON -
KS southwest - 6
KS northwest - 5
KS central - 4 to 5
MN southwest - 3
MN north - 2 to 3
ND southeast, south-central - 3
NE southwest - 4
NE northwest - 3
NE central - 4
OK northwest, north-central - 5
OK southwest - 3
SD - 3 to 4
TX extreme east panhandle - 3
other areas - less than 2

Saturday night/overnight: Severe thunderstorms spread into east KS, east NE, west and central IA, west and north MO. TOR:CON - 3 or less.

Sunday, May 19

Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in central and northeast OK, north-central TX, central and east KS, east NE, IA, west MO, east SD, southeast ND, central and south MN, west-central and southwest WI, northwest IL.

TOR:CON -
IA central - 5 to 6
IA west - 4 to 5
IA east - 3
IL northwest - 3
KS east - 7
KS central - 4
MN central, south - 2 to 3
MO southwest - 4
MO northwest - 6
ND southeast - 3
NE east - 4
OK central, northeast - 7
SD east - 3
TX north-central - 4 (concerns about whether cap will break)
WI west-central, southwest - 3
other areas - less than 2

Sunday night/overnight: Severe thunderstorms continue across northeast OK, northwest AR, MO.

Monday, May 20

Severe thunderstorms in north-central TX, central and east OK, east KS, southwest, central, north MO, west-central and north IL, extreme north IN, MI, south and central MN, WI, north and east IA.

TOR:CON -
IA north, east - 3
IL west-central, north - 3
IN extreme north - 3
KS east- 4
MI - 3
MN south, central - 3
MO southwest - 5
MO central - 4
MO north - 3
OK central, east - 5
TX north-central - 3
WI - 3
other areas - less than 2

[CrazyC83]

Intense tornado confirmed near Rozel, KS - about to enter the village.

[WeatherGuesser]

Intense tornado confirmed near Rozel, KS - about to enter the village.

[cycloneye]

Wow,look at this photo of tornado in SW Rozel Kansas. You have another option to post videos and photos and that is in the Sticky 2013 U.S Severe Weather Season (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecast thread

[Bunkertor]