ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[psyclone]

I persoanally see a lot of rain heading north out of the Keys heading into S Fl.

but rain may last only one day and be gone past fl quick this may never see be td

Check the hydrologic outlook for your CWA:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-041200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEK...

THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA TOMORROW THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS
LIKELY FALLING IN THE TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AREA WIDE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN
HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FLOOD WATCHES MAY
BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...SO INTERESTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS SITUATION
UNFOLDS.

[psyclone]

this mess does not need to be numbered/named to unload 5-10"+ on someone and even some severe wx. in fact, there will be negligible, almost undiscernable differences in the sensible wx between no designation,td or minimal ts. it's going to be a protracted, wet mess and someone is likely going to get swamped pretty good. it is probably a mistake to obsess over td or ts status and a more worthwhile endeavor to instead focus on where the firehose of moisture is aimed.

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[Miami Storm Tracker]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash-wv-short.html look at gulf dry air

You are correct about the dry air, the problem is that all the clouds and rain are ahead of the dry air. So that will need to move northeast into FLA before the dry air can move in if it pushes south and east that far.

[JonathanBelles]

Does anyone have any good Google Earth (KML) model files? The one that I had from last year edited itself and now all of the lines for spaghetti models are way too skinny. I really don't feel like going in and editing each one individually every time to make them visible.

Thanks in advance!

[TheStormExpert]

The Weather Channel's Rainfall Forecast through the end of the week. This was from Monday afternoon.

[lester]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Does anyone have any good Google Earth (KML) model files? The one that I had from last year edited itself and now all of the lines for spaghetti models are way too skinny. I really don't feel like going in and editing each one individually every time to make them visible.

Thanks in advance!

How much thicker might you want them?

I have mine here:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... _Basin.kmz

I could make them a little thicker. What Google Earth thickness would you prefer and I can consider it. I'll make them a tad thicker right now. I think originally I made them small because in Google Earth on some computers the lines seemed to appear bigger, so a bigger size might be really big on some computers, but I have not revisited the issue in awhile.

That is what is nice with Google Maps. You can adjust the line thickness with 1 click:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... =1&large=1

[JonathanBelles]

Does anyone have any good Google Earth (KML) model files? The one that I had from last year edited itself and now all of the lines for spaghetti models are way too skinny. I really don't feel like going in and editing each one individually every time to make them visible.

Thanks in advance!

How much thicker might you want them?

I have mine here:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... _Basin.kmz

I could make them a little thicker. What Google Earth thickness would you prefer and I can consider it. I'll make them a tad thicker right now. I think originally I made them small because in Google Earth on some computers the lines seemed to appear bigger, so a bigger size might be really big on some computers, but I have not revisited the issue in awhile.

That is what is nice with Google Maps. You can adjust the line thickness with 1 click:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... =1&large=1

I think I originally got mine from tropicalatlantic. I'd like them to be between 2.5 and 3.0.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I wouldn't be able to go up that high. I might bump them up a few tenths. The problem is when zoomed out then they look so big and a lot of media use my plots that way. You could run the system yourself if you wanted to run it on your site and change it, but I wouldn't be able to change the default on my site that high.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Although out of curiosity, which plots are you talking about, the spaghetti lines without dots or the full plots with dots. I have different configurations in my system for both, though each are currently set at 1.0.

[Nimbus]

The front has dug south of Cedar key Florida and there is currently plenty of dry air and sheer in the gulf. If 91L was a well developed system it probably would get picked up by the digging trough and pulled NE out quickly over the Florida peninsula.

Steering for a weak system at the surface would be closer to the BAM Shallow which might leave the surface low in the gulf after the front lifts out. Once the dry sheer lets up the surface feature may build an envelope of moisture. NHC said surface pressures are dropping and sheer will diminish if the front doesn't stall over Tampa.

For now it looks like mostly a rain event south of the front as moisture is steered northeastward over south Florida.

[robbielyn]

nice blow up of convection just off east coast of yucatan

[Meow]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

We may see Subtropical Storm Andrea again...

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[NDG]

The front has dug south of Cedar key Florida and there is currently plenty of dry air and sheer in the gulf. If 91L was a well developed system it probably would get picked up by the digging trough and pulled NE out quickly over the Florida peninsula.

Steering for a weak system at the surface would be closer to the BAM Shallow which might leave the surface low in the gulf after the front lifts out. Once the dry sheer lets up the surface feature may build an envelope of moisture. NHC said surface pressures are dropping and sheer will diminish if the front doesn't stall over Tampa.

For now it looks like mostly a rain event south of the front as moisture is steered northeastward over south Florida.

The front is no where near Cedar Key, is west of Pensacola, one good way is also by looking at the surface dewpoints which the second image verifies.
The forecast does not show that the cold will move much eastward from where it is now. You might be confusing the trough and the cold front, two different things.

[NDG]

By the looks of 91L this morning anyone would suggest near 0% chance of development, but the GFS has been persistent that over the next couple of days is when it will have the best chance of getting better organized. I gues we will wait and see.

[weatherwindow]

With respect to the current substantial shear, modelling earlier in the week, particularly the GFS and Euro, were suggesting that the shear would ease as the front/trough along the Gulf coast lifted to the Northeast. Is that solution still in the cards or will the shear r
remain? Any comment from the pros or the ams?...Rich
PS...The Lower Keys will need kayaks soon if the rain persists:)
PPS....Front Street in Key West was under 2' of water at high tide last nite

[tolakram]

With respect to the current substantial shear, modelling earlier in the week, particularly the GFS and Euro, were suggesting that the shear would ease as the front/trough along the Gulf coast lifted to the Northeast. Is that solution still in the cards or will the shear r
remain?

Unfortunately there are no reliable shear forecasts.

I'm looking at both upper level and mid level shear and both are very strong.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tolakram]

Live visible java loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

The center might be better defined this morning.

[NDG]

Here is the GFS shear forecast over the next 72 hrs, it shows shear to diminish Wednesday and early Thursday ahead of the next trough of low pressure but as the low merges with the trough for it to acquire more of subtropical or extratropical entitiy.