ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Sorry for being off topic here, but I was just scanning RAP and saw a very nasty set up for OK this afternoon.

Off-scale helicity and CAPE over 4000.

CAPE over 4000 is always worth posting about regardless of the topic, good work

Good morning Jlauderal, much thanks

[NDG]

Looking at IR sat loop I can still see the broad circulation mostly to the west of the deep convection but I also see a nice inflow into the Mid Level Circulation. Question is if a new LLC will form closer to the MLC.

[NDG]

IMO, we have at least a TD.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

you need a closed circulation at the surface, not just wind

There is some evidence that it has a closed circulation, broad one at the most. Your only argument should be that it needs more of a defined LLC.
Do you have any evidence that it does not have a closed circulation?

[tgenius]

Going back to the statement I made yesterday it sure appears like SFL will miss the majority of the weather associated with this compared to the doom and gloom that was forecasted for this week.

[GCANE]

200mb PV anomaly, which has been keeping a lid on rapid parcel ascent, has dropped significantly in the last 6 hrs.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

No doubt, this accounted for the development of the hot tower.

[GCANE]

Shear is really starting to look good.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF

[NDG]

Going back to the statement I made yesterday it sure appears like SFL will miss the majority of the weather associated with this compared to the doom and gloom that was forecasted for this week.

Except the Keys.
The problem was that the GFS a few days ago wanted to take the energy NE towards S FL too fast, instead the disturbance has been tracking more northward and slower to affect more central and northern FL.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't know what "SHIP" actually is in this report, but it is reporting 40kt Winds near 25N/86W...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Dean4Storms]

If this is accurate we have a Tropical Depression......

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1306050600

[NDG]

First visible this morning.

[NDG]

Buoy 42003 has now being reporting TD force winds for at least 5 hrs straight now, close to 10 foot waves and a pressure of 4 mb lower than 24 hrs ago. All the recon has to find is a defined LLC for 91L to get upgraded to at least our first TD.

[tolakram]

Raw visible from the FTP site.

[northjaxpro]

Going back to the statement I made yesterday it sure appears like SFL will miss the majority of the weather associated with this compared to the doom and gloom that was forecasted for this week.

Except the Keys.
The problem was that the GFS a few days ago wanted to take the energy NE towards S FL too fast, instead the disturbance has been tracking more northward and slower to affect more central and northern FL.

Good morning NDG. Yes, this is a trend I noticed from early yesterday too and it does look more likely now and that area from I-4 corridor and points northward will see some significant rain and possible severe weather from this system. Certainly will be monitoring closely for sure.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 91, 2013060512, , BEST, 0, 248N, 892W, 30, 1007, DB

[GCANE]

Nice size hot tower beginning to fire off.

Looks like this could be a long duration one.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... xico.0.jpg

Good morning, G...hopefully it will persist long enough to start warming the column and give a boost to some anticyclonic assist aloft

Good morning WeatherWindow

[adam0983]

I think we will have a Tropical Depression during the 11am update this morning.

[Extratropical94]

Quick question,

does this line (especially the term "cyclone") mean that they are already expecting 91L to be a numbered system by Thursday?

B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE

[hurricanefloyd5]

If this is accurate we have a Tropical Depression......

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1306050600

Think recon we'll find that we have a tropical depression or possibly tropical storm Andrea today. how will it affect my getaway this weekend. I am going on a small trip this weekend down by the airport with some friends. I will be cut off from all communication for the most part

[OuterBanker]

Very interesting. Latest Euro (6 5 00z) run shows 50 to 60 kt winds along the outer banks in 72. Overdone I'm sure, but it would be interesting to see. Local forecasters predicting rain, but so far no mention of any winds. So far local mets are saying a rainmaker and that's it. A rather rude awakening if the winds do show up.