ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

My swirl I have been rootin for may finally be chuggin some convection (24N, 89.5W)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Its a spit in the wind now. Watching if this goes to a full-blown hurl.

[shortwave]

looks like relocation of potential llc towards the deeper convection, based on vis satellite imagery...between lat 24 and 22 and long 89 and 87. defintly elongated, but more so seeming atm.

[ROCK]

looks like relocation of potential llc towards the deeper convection, based on vis satellite imagery...between lat 24 and 22 and long 89 and 87. defintly elongated, but more so seeming atm.

I agree...its in the process of barfing the naked LLC we are seeing and relocating towards the lowest pressure.

[NDG]

I was just looking at that, it looks like a new LLC might be trying to get going closer to the convection and the old weak LLC seems to be now rotating eastward getting trapped in the inflow.

[OuterBanker]

My bad I guess wxman. The chart I was looking at was at 850 (roughly 5000ft). Is there a conversion formula that translates to ground level?

[Evil Jeremy]

looks like relocation of potential llc towards the deeper convection, based on vis satellite imagery...between lat 24 and 22 and long 89 and 87. defintly elongated, but more so seeming atm.

I agree...its in the process of barfing the naked LLC we are seeing and relocating towards the lowest pressure.

91L has been trying to make that relocation since last night, and time is ruNning out. If it does relocate though, the track should shift from northern Florida to the Middle of the state, maybe a little north of Tampa.

[wxman57]

I don't see any LLC forming closer to the convection yet, just a broad circulation 250 miles across well west of the convection. What typically happens in these cases is that an LLC does eventually form near the convection. Just don't see it yet.

[GCANE]

AMSU Satellite Analysis has bumped up estimated winds to 30 knots.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 051200.GIF

[GCANE]

Warm core at 1C and no boundary-layer inversion

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 8_TANO.GIF

[Extratropical94]

Thanks Dave for the response.

[robbielyn]

I don't see any LLC forming closer to the convection yet, just a broad circulation 250 miles across well west of the convection. What typically happens in these cases is that an LLC does eventually form near the convection. Just don't see it yet.

I totally agree although I wish it would hurry up and consolidate but it doesn't even look like its trying to do that yet. Its quite a distance from the main convection. that dry air sure isn't helping any.

[Ikester]

Quick side note here but I believe in 2014 (2015?) the National Hurricane Center will be able to issue a tropical storm watches for a stretch of coast (in this case, the big bend of Florida) even though a storm hasn't developed yet. It's in the testing phase right now. Could debut next year.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop (Java required): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... te=ir1.pal

Clearly inflow into the blob from the SW now, IMO there may be an LLC forming.

[N2FSU]

Whatever this is, I'm about in the middle of it. Aboard the Carnival Paradise sailing back to Tampa.
Present position 24.3/84.8. Rough ride with constant heavy rain, visibility looks to be about 1/4 mi at the surface. Can't give you the winds because they have had the winds and present GPS position disabled the whole cruise. No sun today. Oh well, it's 5 o'clock somewhere!

[MGC]

91L don't look any better this morning than it did yesterday. Broad area of low pressure, with convection displaced well to the east. Dry air and shear are issues. IMO 91L does not meet the criteria to be designate a tropical cyclone at this time.....of course who knows what the NHC will do.......MGC

[adam0983]

When should Invest 91L make landfall in Florida? I want the sun to come back.

[Weatherboy1]

I tend to agree that in the last couple of hours, it appears a new center may be trying to "tuck under" that area of convection on the far east side of the broader area of low pressure. This fits with my prediction two days ago that we will likely end up with a traditional June system -- LLC on western edge, most convection displaced east, moving into a FL landfall somewhere north of Tampa, and likely in the 40-50 mph TS range. I expect that recon will find enough to have this declared at least a TD. My semi-educated guess, as always!

[northjaxpro]

It is forecast to make landfall within the next 36 hours, although this could change of course.

[ozonepete]

Clearly inflow into the blob from the SW now, IMO there may be an LLC forming.

http://imageshack.us/a/img442/3125/zz91l.jpg

There is clearly an LLC now under the convection. It's north-northeast of your arrow. It is consolidating nicely now though shear is still obvious. I'm quite sure RECON will find a closed center there. TD today and TS tonight or tomorrow.

[tolakram]

There is clearly an LLC now under the convection. It's just north-northeast of your arrow. It is consolidating nicely now though shear is still obvious. I'm quite sure RECON will find a closed center there. TD today and TS tonight or tomorrow.

I've been staring at the loop ... outflow boundary appearing where I thought the center might be, giving the appearance of a circulation ... there may be something moving under there but I need more frames! It is a marked change from yesterday when there was no inflow from the SW.