Area of disturbed weather in Western Carribean (Is 93L)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is the beginning of what may be tropical cyclone genesis in the Bay of Campeche in four to five days or so. Not too interesting right now, just a combinating of a low-latitude tropical wave that emerged off Africa over a week ago and a piece of energy from the monsoon trough...drawn northward by the intense upper-level trough off the East Coast. The feature should track generally west-northwest, crossing Nicaragua into the Gulf of Honduras by Tuesday. The GFS remains consistent with a low developing in the Bay of Campeche upon emergence by Wednesday, but remains in disagreement with its runs on how far north the disturbance lifts once there. The 6z GFS depicts a low sufficiently north to allow for quick development into a minimal tropical storm, while the 12z GFS depicts a low too close to the coastline of Mexico for ample development. With a [weak] weakness expected to trail into the Gulf States as the disturbance is entering, my thoughts are that it may move ever so slightly northward before the high pressure across the Southwest moves northeast and blocks any more movement north.

I'd give the system a 40% chance of ever developing, lower mainly because the lack of model consensus (CMC keeps it straight west, which seems iffy; ECMWF keeps it very near the coastline of Mexico in the BOC), but also due to questions about the low in proximity to land.

[NDG]

We'll see how good the GFS is, see if finally it catches on to storms that form in the BOC which usually have little or no model support. Most times are always a surprise.

[Hurricaneman]

This could be similar to Bret in 2005, little time to develop in the BOC but just enough time to become a tropical storm

[Sanibel]

Good look to it right now.

[Rgv20]

If we include last night's 0zEnsemble of the CMC, ECMWF, NAVGEM, and GFS they are not overly excited about possible development in the next 5 days....The GFS is the only one excited about possible development in the next 5 days. It seems that the BOC tends to spin up disturbances rather quickly so is definitely is something to keep an eye on.

0zMulti Models Ensembles



12zGFS Ensembles

[Aric Dunn]

Actually the wave itself is looking quite healthy and vorticity is increasing convection beginning to fire in association with a MLC.. if it were not about to move over land the current environment is good for development. just not going to happen since it all is about to move over land.

what may be of interest is the convection building on the far north side do the upper divergence. that part will stay over water and we have seen systems getting going at the surface with high shear then the shear abates later on. the upper divergence or shear is good in some cases for that reason

[cycloneye]

10%

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised at all. some indications there may be a bit of a surface reflection.. though wont matter much unless it stays just offshore somehow.. otherwise inland tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

The key for any development to take place in NW Caribbean or BOC would be if it gains some latitude as a trough is located in the East coast of U.S,going into the Bahamas and NW Caribbean has some influence on the track before it lifts out to NE.

[Aric Dunn]

The key for any development to take place in NW Caribbean or BOC would be if it gains some latitude as a trough is located in the East coast of U.S,going into the Bahamas and NW Caribbean has some influence on the track before it lifts out to NE.

yeah I think the convection that is building to the north over the water maybe more important to watch as i mentioned earlier. just have to wait and see.


lets see what the models do now with something to actually initialize.

[floridasun78]

what i see nhc saying may move nw carribbean not over central america WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. i been reading it suppose move into boc but if move nw carrieean it wont make it into boc

[cycloneye]

what i see nhc saying may move nw carribbean not over central america WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. i been reading it suppose move into boc but if move nw carrieean it wont make it into boc

After the trough moves away,a high pressure establishes not allowing much latitude.

[floridasun78]

what i see nhc saying may move nw carribbean not over central america WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. i been reading it suppose move into boc but if move nw carrieean it wont make it into boc

After the trough moves away,a high pressure establishes not allowing much latitude.

but if go nw carribbean it too far north to get in boc

[floridasun78]

unless it become two part wave

[floridasun78]

let see what new models show too

[srainhoutx]

A broad area of low pressure is developing with the easterly wave currently in the SW Caribbean. Continues appear to improve as the wave moves into the NW Caribbean early next week. There is a Kelvin Wave propagating E across the Pacific Ocean, so increasing convection should develop along the monsoonal trough that extends from the EPAC into the Western Atlantic Basin. The models are suggesting a broad monsoonal gyre/low pressure developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EPAC) extending E into the Bay of Campeche mid next week. The NHC has a 10% chance of development on that feature now. I suspect if covection persists overnight into tomorrow we may see an Invest 94 L designated. We will see.

[gatorcane]

I can see some development chances in the BOC from this mid to late this week timeframe but as others have pointed out, strong ridging over the Gulf and Florida will keep this area moving west for the next several days not allowing the area to move north into the Gulf.

[fci]

I'm a little confused here and I apologize if I am missing something in the above posts.
If the discussion here is the Bay of Campeche; then why is the NW Carib. being talked about as the place where something might develop. Talk is about Northward movement and the Carib is east of the Bay of Campeche. Again, I apologize if I am just flat out missing something here....
Thanks in advance for clearing this up for me.

[boca]

No your right and their saying NW Caribbean but the title of the thread should change unless this area moves in the BOC in a day we won't have to worry about title changes

[AJC3]

I'm a little confused here and I apologize if I am missing something in the above posts. If the discussion here is the Bay of Campeche; then why is the NW Carib. being talked about as the place where something might develop. Talk is about Northward movement and the Carib is east of the Bay of Campeche. Again, I apologize if I am just flat out missing something here.... Thanks in advance for clearing this up for me.

The thread title has been changed to more accurately reflect the current situation.