2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[Riptide]

You are also comparing early-season pattern with a mid-late season pattern. It's likely that the position of the Bermuda high moves north as summer progresses. All things equal, it's a pretty favorable pattern for Florida and East Coast landfalls.

[TheStormExpert]

You are also comparing early-season pattern with a mid-late season pattern. It's likely that the position of the Bermuda high moves north as summer progresses. All things equal, it's a pretty favorable pattern for Florida and East Coast landfalls.

What I really want to know is how favorable will the conditions be in MDR region this year? Will it be like 2004 where storms were able to ramp up quickly to Hurricane and Major Hurricane status, OR will it be like 2011/2012 where storms struggled to even maintain TS status and did not become Hurricanes until they reached the Western Caribbean or the Subtropical Atlantic. With quite a few models now trending towards higher than normal pressures in the MDR and off the SE U.S. I would like to really keep an eye on the overall conditions in the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

Also here is the latest Tropical Atlantic/MDR vertical instability which is now Below Average again.

[cycloneye]

That big drop in the instability may be caused by the intense sal outbreak that is now in the MDR all the way from Africa to the Lesser Antilles.

[StormTracker]

:uarrow: That big drop in the instability may be caused by the intense sal outbreak that is now in the MDR all the way from Africa to the Lesser Antilles.

Wow cycloneye, just a few weeks ago, no SAL! 2 weeks later, a SAL outbreak from Africa to the Lesser Antilles!

[StormTracker]

This is the first time this year that a big sal outbreak occurs in the Tropical Atlantic. This for sure will cool a little bit the MDR waters. Normally,June and July are the months when most of the outbreaks occur.

See what I'm saying? This was May 30,2013...

[cycloneye]

Yes,prior to this strongest big outbreak of 2013,there were much less strong ones. But June and July are the months when these outbreaks occur.If you see something like this in August or September,forget about an active CV season.

[Hurricaneman]

Getting these SAL outbreaks now is a bad thing if you don't want Cape Verde storms later in the year like August and September and adds potential for a major problem come the peak of the season

[ROCK]

Getting these SAL outbreaks now is a bad thing if you don't want Cape Verde storms later in the year like August and September and adds potential for a major problem come the peak of the season

agree...a SAL outbreak in June doesnt mean diddly come August......We have a long way to go this season....

[cycloneye]

Well folks,what our friend wxman57 said a few days ago about what the forecast from ECMWF for the MSLP of higher pressures for July,August and September comes to reality today the 15h of June. However,the MDR is with normal pressures but the rest of the basin is hostile. Ok peeps,post away your comments about this forecast.

[crownweather]

A couple of thoughts. First I thought the overall high pressure isn't too, too above average. Second thought is that pattern suggests potential Caribbean cruisers similar to 2007. That is IF that guidance is correct and honestly I have my doubts.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

[crownweather]

A couple of thoughts. First I thought the overall high pressure isn't too, too above average. Second thought is that pattern suggests potential Caribbean cruisers similar to 2007. That is IF that guidance is correct and honestly I have my doubts.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

[BigB0882]

Can someone tell me what MDR stands for? I see it used all the time and have a general idea but am not 100% sure.

[crownweather]

Main development region.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

[Ntxw]

Can someone tell me what MDR stands for? I see it used all the time and have a general idea but am not 100% sure.

It is the deep tropics of the Atlantic between the African coast to the Lesser Antilles (Main Development Region). Usually storms spawned here are called "Cape Verde" systems.

[SFLcane]

Can someone tell me what MDR stands for? I see it used all the time and have a general idea but am not 100% sure.

Main development region were cape-verde cyclones typically strengthen.

[BigB0882]

Thanks everyone!

[gatorcane]

Based on this graphic, we can see the wet-phase MJO pulse moves into the Eastern Pacific, Central America, and SW Caribbean end of June - early July timeframe:

[cycloneye]

Here is the main graphic with the colors of the June ECMWF MSLP forecast for August,September and October from the site that didn't update on Saturday. Will it verify without El Nino?

Operational:



Ensemble mean:



http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0summary!/

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the MJO and other factors, the first week of July would be my guess for the next development I don't think 93L has a chance with too much land interaction