2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#301 Postby Riptide » Fri Jun 14, 2013 8:08 pm

You are also comparing early-season pattern with a mid-late season pattern. It's likely that the position of the Bermuda high moves north as summer progresses. All things equal, it's a pretty favorable pattern for Florida and East Coast landfalls.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#302 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:20 pm

Riptide wrote:You are also comparing early-season pattern with a mid-late season pattern. It's likely that the position of the Bermuda high moves north as summer progresses. All things equal, it's a pretty favorable pattern for Florida and East Coast landfalls.

What I really want to know is how favorable will the conditions be in MDR region this year? Will it be like 2004 where storms were able to ramp up quickly to Hurricane and Major Hurricane status, OR will it be like 2011/2012 where storms struggled to even maintain TS status and did not become Hurricanes until they reached the Western Caribbean or the Subtropical Atlantic. With quite a few models now trending towards higher than normal pressures in the MDR and off the SE U.S. I would like to really keep an eye on the overall conditions in the MDR.
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#303 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:24 pm

Also here is the latest Tropical Atlantic/MDR vertical instability which is now Below Average again.

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#304 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:52 pm

:uarrow: That big drop in the instability may be caused by the intense sal outbreak that is now in the MDR all the way from Africa to the Lesser Antilles.

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#305 Postby StormTracker » Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:57 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: That big drop in the instability may be caused by the intense sal outbreak that is now in the MDR all the way from Africa to the Lesser Antilles.

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Wow cycloneye, just a few weeks ago, no SAL! 2 weeks later, a SAL outbreak from Africa to the Lesser Antilles!
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#306 Postby StormTracker » Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is the first time this year that a big sal outbreak occurs in the Tropical Atlantic. This for sure will cool a little bit the MDR waters. Normally,June and July are the months when most of the outbreaks occur.

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See what I'm saying? This was May 30,2013...
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#307 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:16 pm

:uarrow: Yes,prior to this strongest big outbreak of 2013,there were much less strong ones. But June and July are the months when these outbreaks occur.If you see something like this in August or September,forget about an active CV season.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#308 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:49 pm

Getting these SAL outbreaks now is a bad thing if you don't want Cape Verde storms later in the year like August and September and adds potential for a major problem come the peak of the season
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#309 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:23 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Getting these SAL outbreaks now is a bad thing if you don't want Cape Verde storms later in the year like August and September and adds potential for a major problem come the peak of the season




:uarrow: agree...a SAL outbreak in June doesnt mean diddly come August......We have a long way to go this season....
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#310 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 15, 2013 2:05 pm

Well folks,what our friend wxman57 said a few days ago about what the forecast from ECMWF for the MSLP of higher pressures for July,August and September comes to reality today the 15h of June. However,the MDR is with normal pressures but the rest of the basin is hostile. Ok peeps,post away your comments about this forecast.

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#311 Postby crownweather » Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:10 pm

A couple of thoughts. First I thought the overall high pressure isn't too, too above average. Second thought is that pattern suggests potential Caribbean cruisers similar to 2007. That is IF that guidance is correct and honestly I have my doubts.

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#312 Postby crownweather » Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:10 pm

A couple of thoughts. First I thought the overall high pressure isn't too, too above average. Second thought is that pattern suggests potential Caribbean cruisers similar to 2007. That is IF that guidance is correct and honestly I have my doubts.

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#313 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:18 pm

Can someone tell me what MDR stands for? I see it used all the time and have a general idea but am not 100% sure.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#314 Postby crownweather » Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:21 pm

Main development region.

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#315 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:22 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Can someone tell me what MDR stands for? I see it used all the time and have a general idea but am not 100% sure.


It is the deep tropics of the Atlantic between the African coast to the Lesser Antilles (Main Development Region). Usually storms spawned here are called "Cape Verde" systems.
Last edited by Ntxw on Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#316 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:22 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Can someone tell me what MDR stands for? I see it used all the time and have a general idea but am not 100% sure.


Main development region were cape-verde cyclones typically strengthen.

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#317 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Jun 15, 2013 8:59 pm

Thanks everyone!
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#318 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:35 pm

Based on this graphic, we can see the wet-phase MJO pulse moves into the Eastern Pacific, Central America, and SW Caribbean end of June - early July timeframe:

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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#319 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 16, 2013 8:46 am

Here is the main graphic with the colors of the June ECMWF MSLP forecast for August,September and October from the site that didn't update on Saturday. Will it verify without El Nino?

Operational:

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Ensemble mean:

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http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0summary!/
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#320 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jun 16, 2013 2:03 pm

Based on the MJO and other factors, the first week of July would be my guess for the next development I don't think 93L has a chance with too much land interaction
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