Global model runs discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4781 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:13 am

06z GFS has a weak TS making landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4782 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:22 am

Here are other graphics of the 00z CMC run.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4783 Postby perk » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:27 am

Looks like a Lousiana hit on that CMC run,but it's early and that can change.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4784 Postby perk » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:31 am

This weekend could be interresting if the models continue to develop a storm in the GOM.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4785 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:39 am

perk wrote:This weekend could be interresting if the models continue to develop a storm in the GOM.


Is not for next weekend but for the 4th of July holiday.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4786 Postby perk » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:52 am

cycloneye wrote:
perk wrote:This weekend could be interresting if the models continue to develop a storm in the GOM.


Is not for next weekend but for the 4th of July holiday.



I realize that we're talking about the july 4th week,but what I meant was this weekend we will be nearing the short term time frame
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4787 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:56 am

perk wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
perk wrote:This weekend could be interresting if the models continue to develop a storm in the GOM.


Is not for next weekend but for the 4th of July holiday.



I realize that we're talking about the july 4th week,but what I meant was this weekend we will be nearing the short term time frame


Ok,thanks for the clarification.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4788 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 24, 2013 7:00 am

GFS paints the development stages of Barry all over again, vorticity to develop off of Nicaraguan/Honduran coast by the end of this week into the weekend from the TW moving in that direction, but gain some latitude as there will not be a narrow ridge to its north across the GOM.
Both the GFS and ECMWF have a weakness across the MS River Valley and big time ridging across the western Atlantic in the 8-10 day range, so no threat to the FL Peninsula at this time but the central gulf coast keep a look out for it.
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#4789 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 24, 2013 7:49 am

The CMC begins to develop this off the western tip of Cuba, significantly eastward.
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Re:

#4790 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 24, 2013 8:01 am

Dean4Storms wrote:The CMC begins to develop this off the western tip of Cuba, significantly eastward.

240 hour 00Z CMC images below. Note the CMC has been upgraded this year and seems to be doing better with tropical cyclogenesis not spinning up so many phantom systems. Develops the system between Cuba and the Yucatan at 180 hours so you can see where the model thinks it will move and how strong it will get:

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Re: Re:

#4791 Postby caneman » Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:12 am

wxman57 wrote:
caneman wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:That's bullish but then again, it is the CMC. Bears watching.


CMC did well with Andrea though. And it also had an upgrade though right? So, I say it bears (no pun intended) watching.


The Canadian model develops absolutely everything, so occasionally it will be right.


Thanks wxman57,

I'm aware that they do that. Point being was that with an upgrade, how it did with Andrea that perhaps it may be more accurate and needs some attention.
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Re: Re:

#4792 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 24, 2013 11:08 am

caneman wrote:
Thanks wxman57,

I'm aware that they do that. Point being was that with an upgrade, how it did with Andrea that perhaps it may be more accurate and needs some attention.


I haven't noticed any difference yet in the number of spurious storms it predicts (world-wide).
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#4793 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jun 24, 2013 11:41 am

12zGFS continues to show development on the early part of July..

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#4794 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Jun 24, 2013 11:43 am

12z gfs now has a weak storm la around the 4rd followed by another storm south central tx around the 7th
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4795 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 24, 2013 11:58 am

I believe this MJO surge is giving GFS fits with the changes of scenarios it is going thru on every run and we won't know what will become of this for a while.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4796 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 24, 2013 12:12 pm

Don't shoot the messenger :D 12z CMC.

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#4797 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jun 24, 2013 12:12 pm

:uarrow: Good point the GFS is forecasting quite a pulse of the MJO.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4798 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jun 24, 2013 12:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:Don't shoot the messenger :D 12z CMC

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_37.png


:2gunfire: :2gunfire: On a holiday week, Luis! lol just kidding :cheesy:

I'll believe it when I see it
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#4799 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 24, 2013 12:37 pm

development starts at about day 7 in CMC E of Belize
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#4800 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jun 24, 2013 12:43 pm

we need keep eye wave east leedwards that could start system in western carribbean
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