Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has a weak TS making landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana.

[cycloneye]

Here are other graphics of the 00z CMC run.

[perk]

Looks like a Lousiana hit on that CMC run,but it's early and that can change.

[perk]

This weekend could be interresting if the models continue to develop a storm in the GOM.

[cycloneye]

This weekend could be interresting if the models continue to develop a storm in the GOM.

Is not for next weekend but for the 4th of July holiday.

[perk]

This weekend could be interresting if the models continue to develop a storm in the GOM.

Is not for next weekend but for the 4th of July holiday.

I realize that we're talking about the july 4th week,but what I meant was this weekend we will be nearing the short term time frame

[cycloneye]

This weekend could be interresting if the models continue to develop a storm in the GOM.

Is not for next weekend but for the 4th of July holiday.

I realize that we're talking about the july 4th week,but what I meant was this weekend we will be nearing the short term time frame

Ok,thanks for the clarification.

[NDG]

GFS paints the development stages of Barry all over again, vorticity to develop off of Nicaraguan/Honduran coast by the end of this week into the weekend from the TW moving in that direction, but gain some latitude as there will not be a narrow ridge to its north across the GOM.
Both the GFS and ECMWF have a weakness across the MS River Valley and big time ridging across the western Atlantic in the 8-10 day range, so no threat to the FL Peninsula at this time but the central gulf coast keep a look out for it.

[Dean4Storms]

The CMC begins to develop this off the western tip of Cuba, significantly eastward.

[gatorcane]

The CMC begins to develop this off the western tip of Cuba, significantly eastward.

240 hour 00Z CMC images below. Note the CMC has been upgraded this year and seems to be doing better with tropical cyclogenesis not spinning up so many phantom systems. Develops the system between Cuba and the Yucatan at 180 hours so you can see where the model thinks it will move and how strong it will get:

[caneman]

That's bullish but then again, it is the CMC. Bears watching.

CMC did well with Andrea though. And it also had an upgrade though right? So, I say it bears (no pun intended) watching.

The Canadian model develops absolutely everything, so occasionally it will be right.

Thanks wxman57,

I'm aware that they do that. Point being was that with an upgrade, how it did with Andrea that perhaps it may be more accurate and needs some attention.

[wxman57]

Thanks wxman57,

I'm aware that they do that. Point being was that with an upgrade, how it did with Andrea that perhaps it may be more accurate and needs some attention.

I haven't noticed any difference yet in the number of spurious storms it predicts (world-wide).

[Rgv20]

12zGFS continues to show development on the early part of July..

[catskillfire51]

12z gfs now has a weak storm la around the 4rd followed by another storm south central tx around the 7th

[cycloneye]

I believe this MJO surge is giving GFS fits with the changes of scenarios it is going thru on every run and we won't know what will become of this for a while.

[cycloneye]

Don't shoot the messenger 12z CMC.

[Rgv20]

Good point the GFS is forecasting quite a pulse of the MJO.

[JonathanBelles]

Don't shoot the messenger 12z CMC

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_37.png

On a holiday week, Luis! lol just kidding

I'll believe it when I see it

[Alyono]

development starts at about day 7 in CMC E of Belize

[floridasun78]

we need keep eye wave east leedwards that could start system in western carribbean