Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[rockyman]

It appears that this wave is picking up some steam today. In fact, this wave has the strongest low-level vorticity in the entire tropical Atlantic Basin:



The morning TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N44W TO 02N46W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 39W-49W.

Shear is low over the southern portion of the wave (just off the coast of South America), but increases quickly to the north:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

The latest Canadian pulls this system across the NE Caribbean Islands (just east of Puerto Rico) and up toward the Carolina coastline (as a weak area of vorticity):
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

This area right on the South American coastline appears to have a small surface eddy:

[Steve H.]

Noticed this late yesterday but didn't think it deserved a separate thread at that time. If shear abates some in the next few days I think we have a candidate for more than a bear watch

[gatorcane]

It's headed for a high shear zone and I don't see that abating, likely why models don't do anything with this.

[floridasun78]

this likely go into south america plus shear high all over tropical

[floridasun78]

i saw cmc i see it i notice alot fans of cmc here but been reading that cmc gave alot ghost storms

[rockyman]

8am TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N50W TO 06N56W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED MAINLY IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 230 NM WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

[rockyman]

Small eddy from yesterday has grown quite a bit, as it moves WNW along the South American coastline...heading toward far southern Windwards

[rockyman]

Is this curvature or just an illusion?

[rockyman]

Low level vorticity:

[rockyman]

Upper divergence:


Lower convergence:

[floridasun78]

this look like going crash into south america as other wave last week

[rockyman]

This steering chart makes me think the system will make it into the southeast Caribbean:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

The wave extends all the way up to 20N, so some of the energy will certainly stay north of South America. Take a look at this MIMIC TPW loop. Note that there is a circulation near 9N/57W. Not a strong circulation indicated, but the energy IS fairly far south. Development is unlikely until if/when this energy reaches the SW/W Caribbean and or SW Gulf next week.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[rockyman]

Current placement of wave (per 12z TAFB):

[wxman57]

Note the accelerated easterly trades across the eastern Caribbean. That's why it's a "death zone" for TCs (low-level divergence).

[rockyman]

The CMC pulls this system apart, taking the northern portion of the wave energy up toward the Carolina coast...with the southern portion continuing into the SW Caribbean:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/CMC/201 ... .anim.html

[rockyman]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[SouthFloridawx]

This wave is really starting to fire up now. Looking much more vigorous. For how long, who knows. With shear light in it's path in the future it's definitely something to monitor, even if the Globals aren't really picking anything up right now.



12Z - 48 Hour 250mb Wind Heights

[rockyman]

2pm TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N54W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
54W-61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 50W-59W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

[gatorcane]

This wave is really starting to fire up now. Looking much more vigorous. For how long, who knows. With shear light in it's path in the future it's definitely something to monitor, even if the Globals aren't really picking anything up right now.

Shear is not light in it's path. You can just loop this IR image to see high clouds across the Eastern Caribbean briskly moving from W to E:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html