Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#1 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:56 am

Image

It appears that this wave is picking up some steam today. In fact, this wave has the strongest low-level vorticity in the entire tropical Atlantic Basin:

Image

The morning TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N44W TO 02N46W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 39W-49W.

Shear is low over the southern portion of the wave (just off the coast of South America), but increases quickly to the north:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

The latest Canadian pulls this system across the NE Caribbean Islands (just east of Puerto Rico) and up toward the Carolina coastline (as a weak area of vorticity):
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

This area right on the South American coastline appears to have a small surface eddy:
Image
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Jun 29, 2013 6:45 pm, edited 5 times in total.
0 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#2 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:31 pm

Noticed this late yesterday but didn't think it deserved a separate thread at that time. If shear abates some in the next few days I think we have a candidate for more than a bear watch :flag:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#3 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:40 pm

It's headed for a high shear zone and I don't see that abating, likely why models don't do anything with this.
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#4 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:10 pm

this likely go into south america plus shear high all over tropical
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#5 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:29 pm

i saw cmc i see it i notice alot fans of cmc here but been reading that cmc gave alot ghost storms
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#6 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 6:28 am

8am TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N50W TO 06N56W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED MAINLY IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 230 NM WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 48W-51W.
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#7 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 7:51 am

Small eddy from yesterday has grown quite a bit, as it moves WNW along the South American coastline...heading toward far southern Windwards
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#8 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:04 am

Image
Is this curvature or just an illusion?
Last edited by rockyman on Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#9 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:11 am

Low level vorticity:
Image
Last edited by rockyman on Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#10 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:44 am

Upper divergence:
Image

Lower convergence:
Image
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#11 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:38 am

this look like going crash into south america as other wave last week
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#12 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:56 am

This steering chart makes me think the system will make it into the southeast Caribbean:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#13 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 28, 2013 10:07 am

The wave extends all the way up to 20N, so some of the energy will certainly stay north of South America. Take a look at this MIMIC TPW loop. Note that there is a circulation near 9N/57W. Not a strong circulation indicated, but the energy IS fairly far south. Development is unlikely until if/when this energy reaches the SW/W Caribbean and or SW Gulf next week.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#14 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 10:21 am

Current placement of wave (per 12z TAFB):

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Tropical Wave Approaching the Lesser Antilles

#15 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 28, 2013 10:25 am

Note the accelerated easterly trades across the eastern Caribbean. That's why it's a "death zone" for TCs (low-level divergence).
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#16 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 10:30 am

The CMC pulls this system apart, taking the northern portion of the wave energy up toward the Carolina coast...with the southern portion continuing into the SW Caribbean:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/CMC/201 ... .anim.html
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#17 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:39 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Trop Wave approaching Lesser Antilles-Code Yellow near 0%

#18 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:53 pm

This wave is really starting to fire up now. Looking much more vigorous. For how long, who knows. With shear light in it's path in the future it's definitely something to monitor, even if the Globals aren't really picking anything up right now.

Image

12Z - 48 Hour 250mb Wind Heights

Image
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#19 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:06 pm

2pm TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N54W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
54W-61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 50W-59W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Trop Wave approaching Lesser Antilles-Code Yellow near 0%

#20 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:08 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:This wave is really starting to fire up now. Looking much more vigorous. For how long, who knows. With shear light in it's path in the future it's definitely something to monitor, even if the Globals aren't really picking anything up right now.


Shear is not light in it's path. You can just loop this IR image to see high clouds across the Eastern Caribbean briskly moving from W to E:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 869MB, Lizzytiz1, USTropics and 54 guests