Global model runs discussion

[NDG]

It makes sense about the CV season starting soon, the MJO is still hanging around the borderline of Phase 1 & 2

[N2FSU]

12Z CMC; 150hr

[N2FSU]

12Z CMC; 156hr

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS; 120hr. shows next one to develop off of Africa.

[gatorcane]

Look at the steering pattern the GFS is showing at 180 hours...strong Bermuda High ridge...with another Cape Verde system in the MDR:

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS; 180hr

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS; 240hr

[Hurricaneman]

12Z GFS; 120hr. shows next one to develop off of Africa.

It actually starts the development phase at 90hrs and at 360 makes landfall near Palm Beach, we know this will change alot but is a sign that the Cape Verde season is getting going early this year

[N2FSU]

Way out there; 12Z GFS; 336hr

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS; 384hr

[N2FSU]

It actually starts the development phase at 90hrs and at 360 makes landfall near Palm Beach, we know this will change alot but is a sign that the Cape Verde season is getting going early this year

Yes it sure does! I just didn't post the one that far back. Interesting days ahead.

[Hurricaneman]

12zGFS shows a wave with low at 90hrs coming off of Africa and basically pulls a track thats a mix of David and Frances so with the ridging out there on average this could very well happen but will probably change in subsequent runs but the moral is the cape verde season is in full swing a month early this year like 1996, and 2008

[Stormlover2012]

Way way out!!! Won't believe till euro shows something

[Hurricaneman]

Way way out!!! Won't believe till euro shows something

The Euro probably won't show something until there is an organized tropical storm because it usually shows nothing until it has an organized low

[Stormlover2012]

Euro is the best!!! It has nailed the last 2 waves, gfs showed something forming on both and euro kept it as a wave and look what happened, gfs might get lucky 1 out 10 times.

[Florida1118]

Euro is the best!!! It has nailed the last 2 waves, gfs showed something forming on both and euro kept it as a wave and look what happened, gfs might get lucky 1 out 10 times.

Ehhh. No. Its quite silly to look at only one model and take its run as gospel. Its much better too look at all of them and then make your own determination.

[Stormlover2012]

I look at all of them and the euro isn't bullish like all these other models, gfs,cmc,navy and the nam they always go over board.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro and 12zGFS both show a wave coming off of Africa at about 90hrs and developing it so the wave coming into the eastern section of Africa needs to be monitored for development later this week and maybe beyond that for the islands

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[Ntxw]

It makes sense about the CV season starting soon, the MJO is still hanging around the borderline of Phase 1 & 2

I concur, definitely not unusual when in those phases. Most models slow it down and keep it there before progressing it or weakening, we should get a good 2 weeks out of it at least for the models to continue showing activity.

[Hurricaneman]

18zGFS kills off the idea of a Cape Verde storm that it had in the 12z