ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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Evil Jeremy
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Re:

#1361 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:02 pm

floridasun78 wrote:but shear waiting for it so it be very weak like td or low it will bring fl rain we use too


Don't be so sure there is shear waiting...
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1362 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:05 pm

here is another look at the 18Z GFS ensembles....more and more making a hard left...

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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1363 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:10 pm

:roll:

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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1364 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:14 pm

did the low at the surface reform to the north?
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1365 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:15 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:did the low at the surface reform to the north?


No. We have been following the same low all day, despite some confusion from the start of the recon mission earlier.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1366 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:15 pm

SFLcane wrote::roll:

[img]http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013_inten.png


Looks like the NHC is sticking closest to the NVGI model for intensity and tossing the rest of them that keep Chantal @ Tropical Storm or higher
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1367 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:16 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
hurricanefloyd5 wrote:did the low at the surface reform to the north?


No. We have been following the same low all day, despite some confusion from the start of the recon mission earlier.

Let's hope that, the contrary should not be appreciated for those who live in the Leewards :roll:
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#1368 Postby Annie Oakley » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:17 pm

Anyone have a (projected) Shear graphic/map?
Last edited by Annie Oakley on Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1369 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:20 pm

Always best to be in the cone early, if you're going to be there at all.y

Peeps in the islands and the Caribbean have to have their eyes peeled, but beyond that several things need to happen for Chantal to remain viable. The hard GFS left? I need many more model runs before I begin nibbling on that bait.

On the other hand, it's been odd so far this summer, so it's not at all impossible.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1370 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:23 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:
SFLcane wrote::roll:

[img]http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013_inten.png


Looks like the NHC is sticking closest to the NVGI model for intensity and tossing the rest of them that keep Chantal @ Tropical Storm or higher


Yeah I'm sure NHC just playing it conservative now with intensity 5 days out. No need to alarm us Floridians at this point, lol! Based on those models, I would expect Chantal to strengthen in the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1371 Postby Blinhart » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:24 pm

How many people see something like Lily or Andrew here?
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#1372 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:35 pm

Always best to be in the cone early, if you're going to be there at all.y

Peeps in the islands and the Caribbean have to have their eyes peeled, but beyond that several things need to happen for Chantal to remain viable. The hard GFS left? I need many more model runs before I begin nibbling on that bait.

On the other hand, it's been odd so far this summer, so it's not at all impossible.
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Re:

#1373 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:35 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:Anyone have a (projected) Shear graphic/map?


maybe this will help....

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... .anim.html
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1374 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:36 pm

Blinhart wrote:How many people see something like Lily or Andrew here?


no model is predicting that type of intensity....
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Re:

#1375 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:38 pm

meriland23 wrote:then again, it is moving so fast that it wouldn't surprise me one bit is any mountainous areas it crosses doesn't effect it fast enough to deteriorate it much since it will be back in the water again in the blink of a eye.

Moving fast or not, the mountains will still hit it. It's like saying "Oh, I'm pretty sure that racer won't be affected by those spikes up ahead because he is going way too fast"
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1376 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:41 pm

There's Chantal out there approaching the islands, but look at all of the strong waves behind it (and the other disturbance in front of it off Florida). Very, very intense parade of tropical waves for so early in the season.

Image
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1377 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:44 pm

ozonepete wrote:There's Chantal out there approaching the islands, but look at all of the strong waves behind it (and the other disturbance in front of it off Florida). Very, very intense parade of tropical waves for so early in the season.

Image

nhc drop area by bahamas from outlook
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#1378 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:45 pm

Simply put, Chantal is sitting in a deep ridge so 1012 is a low pressure in the area. If pressures were natural it would be around 997 I would think.

If Chantal gets up to hurricane force, it could do so with a pressure still over 1000.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1379 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:46 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1380 Postby Blinhart » Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:47 pm

ROCK wrote:
Blinhart wrote:How many people see something like Lily or Andrew here?


no model is predicting that type of intensity....

I guess I should of stated path wise. Intensity is still up in the air
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