ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[WeatherEmperor]

[quote="mcheer23"]NHC doesn't believe in the west bend...just yet.

still outside the 5 day forecast. they will have to 12z tomorrow if the models keep the west turn.

Yup, this. NHC gets to put off the big decision a just a little bit longer.

they love doing that [/quote]

Do you think they will start the west bend at the 5am advisory?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I thought the updated GFS run came out at 11:00 am I wrong.

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't start getting excited about this one until after it crosses Hispaniola.

[Gustywind]

Be safe and dry all islanders! Be on your guard as Chantal seems to come in our way.
Gustywind

[Stormlover2012]

Rolling now!!

[Bocadude85]

I thought the updated GFS run came out at 11:00 am I wrong.

The 0z GFS should be running here in the next 5-10mins

[lester]

I thought the updated GFS run came out at 11:00 am I wrong.

It comes out at 11:30 pm ET

[CourierPR]

I would think that at what point any west turn takes place would be determined by the strength of the building high pressure. How strong is that rebuilding high pressure going to be?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I thought the updated GFS run came out at 11:00 am I wrong.

It comes out at 11:30 pm ET

Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

I would think that at what point any west turn takes place would be determined by the strength of the building high pressure. How strong is that rebuilding high pressure going to be?

according to the models its going to be a significant ridge.

[ROCK]

its already updating.....

here is the 0Z NAM....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[meriland23]

Storm seems slightly weaker than earlier..



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[thetruesms]

they love doing that

I must confess, I find it hard to blame them sometimes. With my primary focus, the really important stuff is in the 0-12 hour frame, and I'm usually pretty confident in my forecasts. Stuff beyond that for the next week or two is just, "Hey, give us a heads up for some general stuff, and we're happy if you're in the ballpark".

Well, then seasonal stuff gets important again and I tie myself up in knots trying to do a good job on it.

But, circling back to the relevant topic, bringing Chantal to a landfall is not an insignificant part of the forecast, and I can definitely sympathize with trying to get as confident in a scenario as possible before committing.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This is storm track I think Chantal could very well end up duplicating. But instead of turning north into Pensacola the Bermuda high will keep pushing her further west.

[ROCK]

12hrs GFS



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[ROCK]

21 hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

30hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... precip.gif

[Bocadude85]

I would think that at what point any west turn takes place would be determined by the strength of the building high pressure. How strong is that rebuilding high pressure going to be?

according to the models its going to be a significant ridge.

I wonder if we could see a WSW motion as she heads for the coast... guess it all depends on just how strong the ridge is.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

21 hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

30hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... precip.gif

Does not seem to move that far in 10 hours, if it's still going 26 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

they love doing that

I must confess, I find it hard to blame them sometimes. With my primary focus, the really important stuff is in the 0-12 hour frame, and I'm usually pretty confident in my forecasts. Stuff beyond that for the next week or two is just, "Hey, give us a heads up for some general stuff, and we're happy if you're in the ballpark".

Well, then seasonal stuff gets important again and I tie myself up in knots trying to do a good job on it.

But, circling back to the relevant topic, bringing Chantal to a landfall is not an insignificant part of the forecast, and I can definitely sympathize with trying to get as confident in a scenario as possible before committing.

Makes perfect sense. Anything in science requires and series of small predictions then you set out to verify all the while keeping the ultimate goal in mind. in the case of weather though its out of our hands on try to verify a prediction/theory... just have to wait and see.

[bamajammer4eva]

Does the GFS factor in weakening from land interactions?