Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Pouch PO9L)

[cycloneye]

Hey,the folks who do these pouch things are back in 2013. We have a new pouch (PO9L) being analized inside Western Africa. Let's see what it does as it hits the water in 3 days.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P09L.html

[Gustywind]

Hey,the folks who do these pouch things are back in 2013. We have a new pouch (PO9L) being analized inside Western Africa. Let's see what it does as it hits the water in 3 days.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P09L.html

http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/3043/9ec.png

http://oi44.tinypic.com/o91d0y.jpg

Thanks for that pouch info Cycloneye. You always do a great job by catching these things.

[cycloneye]

I am the first to say that this wave/pouch will not develop because of the conditions downstream and the models are silent but is always interesting to follow these and the data that the folks that study them provide. Saved Image at 21:00 UTC.

[ozonepete]

Hi Luis, yes nice catch. Actually the GFS shows this coming off the coast Tuesday morning as a strong low but then dissipates it a day or two later ( by Wednesday evening it's gone but a new one is coming off the African coast.) Here's the Tuesday morning and Wednesday evening tropical GFS forecasts.

Btw, I believe that second, somewhat smaller wave behind this one (all the way to the right on your previous sat image above) is the one that's coming off the coast on Wednesday/Thursday. The GFS keeps that one through next weekend as a strong possibility.

The upper right are near-surface vorticity (925 mb). Look there for closed circulation contours and brown or red areas indicate higher vorticity.
lower right is 700 to 500mb mb RH (mid-level RH). lower left is shear. upper left is steering winds.

Tuesday morning - coming off the coast:


Wednesday evening - gone, but a new wave is coming:

[SFLcane]

Here is the TW coming into the picture luis..would prefer for it to be a little futher south but well see what happens.

[cycloneye]

Here is the TW coming into the picture luis..would prefer for it to be a little futher south but well see what happens.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... loater.gif

Agree is a little bit north but you never know if this cranks up downstream. The cooling of Gulf of Guinea may be already causing waves to emerge north of 10N latitude.

[Gustywind]

Anyway, that should be very interresting to see how these twaves try to develop or not

[ozonepete]

Here is the TW coming into the picture luis..would prefer for it to be a little futher south but well see what happens.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... loater.gif

Agree is a little bit north but you never know if this cranks up downstream. The cooling of Gulf of Guinea may be already causing waves to emerge north of 10N latitude.

Remember that they usually drop southward a few degrees as they come off of the African coast...

[cycloneye]

Convection has gone down a bit this morning but the wave axis is still far from the coast.Let's see what happens if this pouch bites the dust or stays viable.

[cycloneye]

Well, this pouch has reached this morning the water off the African coast. Sometime today TAFB will introduce it as a Tropical Wave. Here is the latest update by the pouch group.





http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P09L.html

[cycloneye]

Is now a Tropical Wave at 18z surface analysis. This is not the wave the GFS develops.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N18W TO 4N18W MOVING WEST AT 15-20
KT. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATE THE WAVE
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 16/0000 AND 16/1200 UTC.
THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS AND A SURGE OF
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 22W AND 26W IN THE ITCZ.

[KBBOCA]

I'm based in Nouakchott, Mauritania (18-06N 015-57W). We just had a massive dust storm come through this morning. I've not seen a storm of this potency here in a number of years. We also had a moderate thunderstorm, winds gusting up to 50MPH.

You can see obs here:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/61442.html

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

I'm wondering if large amounts of dust sent out into the Atlantic from this storm might disrupt the next few waves coming off the coast?

[abajan]

... I'm wondering if large amounts of dust sent out into the Atlantic from this storm might disrupt the next few waves coming off the coast?

IMO perhaps not because that's a fairly high latitude. Thanks for sharing your personal observation of weather conditions there though.

[beoumont]

I'm based in Nouakchott, Mauritania (18-06N 015-57W). We just had a massive dust storm come through this morning. I've not seen a storm of this potency here in a number of years. We also had a moderate thunderstorm, winds gusting up to 50MPH.

Now, that's "mud in your eyes". Literally.

[AJC3]

I'm based in Nouakchott, Mauritania (18-06N 015-57W). We just had a massive dust storm come through this morning. I've not seen a storm of this potency here in a number of years. We also had a moderate thunderstorm, winds gusting up to 50MPH.

You can see obs here:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/61442.html

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

I'm wondering if large amounts of dust sent out into the Atlantic from this storm might disrupt the next few waves coming off the coast?

That city/area (and the whole country for that matter) look pretty harsh. How were you "lucky" enough to get that gig?

[RL3AO]

So far the environment looks pretty good off the coast. You are getting the standard dry air between the waves, but overall it looks pretty good for these waves come August...if the trade winds slow down.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N25W TO 8N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 25W-33W.

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N33W TO 10N35W MOVING WEST AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALSO
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE WAVE AXIS. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER SURROUNDING THE WAVE...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.