2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

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'CaneFreak
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#541 Postby 'CaneFreak » Fri Jul 19, 2013 9:06 pm

STRONGLY AGREE with the bolded...typically we look toward the June and July pattern to give us a general handle on what the pattern might look like as we head into the meat of the season...this pattern indeed looks pretty nasty for the US and Caribbean...hope everyone is ready

SFLcane wrote:posted here from my twitter page..

seasons storm tracks look a lot like 2004

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPkrJrlCEAAc4XV.jpg
Last edited by 'CaneFreak on Fri Jul 19, 2013 10:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#542 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 19, 2013 9:34 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:STRONGLY AGREE with the bolded...typically we look toward the June and July pattern to give us a general handle on what the pattern might look like as we head into the meat of the season...this pattern indeed looks pretty nasty for the US and Caribbean...hope everyone is ready

SFLcane wrote:posted here from my twitter page..

seasons storm tracks look a lot like 2004

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPkrJrlCEAAc4XV.jpg

Well, we have the pattern in place potentially. But, now comes the big question. How strong will the storms that do form off the the African wave train be this year? As you all know the last 2 seasons featured basically no hurricane activity in the MDR due to low instability and some dry air. As of right now I am wondering if that could be an issue once again this season, or is it too soon to tell yet?
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#543 Postby 'CaneFreak » Fri Jul 19, 2013 10:52 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Well, we have the pattern in place potentially. But, now comes the big question. How strong will the storms that do form off the the African wave train be this year? As you all know the last 2 seasons featured basically no hurricane activity in the MDR due to low instability and some dry air. As of right now I am wondering if that could be an issue once again this season, or is it too soon to tell yet?


I don't think the amount of hurricane activity in the MDR is going to matter all that much. If you get enough strong AEWs that stay relatively weak and move through the MDR and hold together until they reach more favorable waters west of 50 or 55 W, the hurricane activity in the MDR won't matter. In fact, US landfalling hurricanes 9 times out of 10 aren't hurricanes east of 50 W. Instead, they stay weak and then blossom west of 55 W where the instability and shear conditions are more favorable.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#544 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Jul 20, 2013 8:54 am

'CaneFreak wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Well, we have the pattern in place potentially. But, now comes the big question. How strong will the storms that do form off the the African wave train be this year? As you all know the last 2 seasons featured basically no hurricane activity in the MDR due to low instability and some dry air. As of right now I am wondering if that could be an issue once again this season, or is it too soon to tell yet?


I don't think the amount of hurricane activity in the MDR is going to matter all that much. If you get enough strong AEWs that stay relatively weak and move through the MDR and hold together until they reach more favorable waters west of 50 or 55 W, the hurricane activity in the MDR won't matter. In fact, US landfalling hurricanes 9 times out of 10 aren't hurricanes east of 50 W. Instead, they stay weak and then blossom west of 55 W where the instability and shear conditions are more favorable.


A great post, and important information that everyone here should really take to heart.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#545 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:12 am

Look familiar?

Image

Image
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#546 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:20 am

Do you agree with this pattern change? What kind of conditions upstream ignite this pattern change?

SFLcane wrote:Look familiar?
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#547 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:25 am

'CaneFreak wrote:Do you agree with this pattern change? What kind of conditions upstream ignite this pattern change?

SFLcane wrote:Look familiar?


I would not say pattern change but this happens often. Nice ridging basin wide to only flip to eastcoast trof come august.
Last edited by SFLcane on Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#548 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:28 am

SFLcane wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:Do you agree with this pattern change? What kind of conditions upstream ignite this pattern change?

SFLcane wrote:Look familiar?


I would not say pattern change but this happens often. Nice ridging basin wide to only flip to eastcoast trof come august. All your need to be cherries need to be in the basket.


Those graphics only go out through Aug 4th. What will happen later in August and September though?

In 2004, we saw abnormally strong troughing over the Eastern half of the U.S. in early August then look what happened after that...
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#549 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:32 am

I know gator just stateing the probable. My personal take 2004 steering don't come very often. Until proven wrong i expect another season with an eastcoast trof recurving most storms.
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#550 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:36 am

SFLcane wrote:I know gator just stateing the probable. My personal take 2004 steering don't come very often. Until proven wrong i expect another season with an eastcoast trof recurving most storms.


Hi Adrian. You said in past weeks that Florida would be a bulls eye this season but are things changing now?
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#551 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:44 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:I know gator just stateing the probable. My personal take 2004 steering don't come very often. Until proven wrong i expect another season with an eastcoast trof recurving most storms.


Hi Adrian. You said in past weeks that Florida would be a bulls eye this season but are things changing now?


Dont know luis.. Just got so use to past several years everything in sight recurving at least most. Looking at the overall pattern & conditions at hand there are "some" similarities to the 04 season i guess that had early recurves but storms that get far enough westward don't recurve. Maybe i just need something to track a good bonified capeverde tc :D
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Re: 2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

#552 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:54 am

Don't worry. There will be plenty of time for that. We are not even halfway through the season yet :D

SFLcane wrote:Dont know luis.. Just got so use to past several years everything in sight recurving at least most. Looking at the overall pattern & conditions at hand there are "some" similarities to the 04 season i guess that had early recurves but storms that get far enough westward don't recurve. Maybe i just need something to track a good bonified capeverde tc :D
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#553 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:09 am

I was never sold with the strong ridging sticking through the peak of the season in the first place. I'm kind of buying an EC trough setting up in the coming weeks.
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#554 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 20, 2013 8:45 pm

I think some are jumping to conclusions a little fast here. Who says that trough is a permanent feature for the season?
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#555 Postby ninel conde » Sun Jul 21, 2013 6:59 am

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:I think some are jumping to conclusions a little fast here. Who says that trough is a permanent feature for the season?


joe bastardi has stated summer is over for the northeast. that would certainly imply the trough is here to stay. it was a permanent feature the last 3 years.
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#556 Postby ninel conde » Sun Jul 21, 2013 7:00 am

does anyone have the latest tropical instability maps?
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Re:

#557 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 21, 2013 7:21 am

ninel conde wrote:does anyone have the latest tropical instability maps?


Bottom line of the top table on my hurricane links page:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/hurricane.html
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#558 Postby ninel conde » Sun Jul 21, 2013 7:26 am

thanks. if im reading it right its well below normal as i would suspect based on the absence of any convection in the atlantic.
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Re:

#559 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 21, 2013 7:44 am

ninel conde wrote:thanks. if im reading it right its well below normal as i would suspect based on the absence of any convection in the atlantic.


Tropical Atlantic & Caribbean currently have below-normal instability, due to sinking air in the region. However, the Gulf is more unstable than normal. Model projections are for instability to increase in the Caribbean/Atlantic in 7-10 days.
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#560 Postby ninel conde » Sun Jul 21, 2013 7:45 am

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 19h

Attn @AndyRevkin Exceptionally dry air in mid/upper trop over tropics killing global ace so far ..less than 70% of normal!

is this exceptionally dry air something thats seasonal and not likely to change, or can it flip to moist in a week or 2?
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