2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

['CaneFreak]

STRONGLY AGREE with the bolded...typically we look toward the June and July pattern to give us a general handle on what the pattern might look like as we head into the meat of the season...this pattern indeed looks pretty nasty for the US and Caribbean...hope everyone is ready

posted here from my twitter page..

seasons storm tracks look a lot like 2004

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPkrJrlCEAAc4XV.jpg

[TheStormExpert]

STRONGLY AGREE with the bolded...typically we look toward the June and July pattern to give us a general handle on what the pattern might look like as we head into the meat of the season...this pattern indeed looks pretty nasty for the US and Caribbean...hope everyone is ready

posted here from my twitter page..

seasons storm tracks look a lot like 2004

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPkrJrlCEAAc4XV.jpg

Well, we have the pattern in place potentially. But, now comes the big question. How strong will the storms that do form off the the African wave train be this year? As you all know the last 2 seasons featured basically no hurricane activity in the MDR due to low instability and some dry air. As of right now I am wondering if that could be an issue once again this season, or is it too soon to tell yet?

['CaneFreak]

Well, we have the pattern in place potentially. But, now comes the big question. How strong will the storms that do form off the the African wave train be this year? As you all know the last 2 seasons featured basically no hurricane activity in the MDR due to low instability and some dry air. As of right now I am wondering if that could be an issue once again this season, or is it too soon to tell yet?

I don't think the amount of hurricane activity in the MDR is going to matter all that much. If you get enough strong AEWs that stay relatively weak and move through the MDR and hold together until they reach more favorable waters west of 50 or 55 W, the hurricane activity in the MDR won't matter. In fact, US landfalling hurricanes 9 times out of 10 aren't hurricanes east of 50 W. Instead, they stay weak and then blossom west of 55 W where the instability and shear conditions are more favorable.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well, we have the pattern in place potentially. But, now comes the big question. How strong will the storms that do form off the the African wave train be this year? As you all know the last 2 seasons featured basically no hurricane activity in the MDR due to low instability and some dry air. As of right now I am wondering if that could be an issue once again this season, or is it too soon to tell yet?

I don't think the amount of hurricane activity in the MDR is going to matter all that much. If you get enough strong AEWs that stay relatively weak and move through the MDR and hold together until they reach more favorable waters west of 50 or 55 W, the hurricane activity in the MDR won't matter. In fact, US landfalling hurricanes 9 times out of 10 aren't hurricanes east of 50 W. Instead, they stay weak and then blossom west of 55 W where the instability and shear conditions are more favorable.

A great post, and important information that everyone here should really take to heart.

[SFLcane]

Look familiar?

['CaneFreak]

Do you agree with this pattern change? What kind of conditions upstream ignite this pattern change?

Look familiar?

[SFLcane]

Do you agree with this pattern change? What kind of conditions upstream ignite this pattern change?

Look familiar?

I would not say pattern change but this happens often. Nice ridging basin wide to only flip to eastcoast trof come august.

[gatorcane]

Do you agree with this pattern change? What kind of conditions upstream ignite this pattern change?

Look familiar?

I would not say pattern change but this happens often. Nice ridging basin wide to only flip to eastcoast trof come august. All your need to be cherries need to be in the basket.

Those graphics only go out through Aug 4th. What will happen later in August and September though?

In 2004, we saw abnormally strong troughing over the Eastern half of the U.S. in early August then look what happened after that...

[SFLcane]

I know gator just stateing the probable. My personal take 2004 steering don't come very often. Until proven wrong i expect another season with an eastcoast trof recurving most storms.

[cycloneye]

I know gator just stateing the probable. My personal take 2004 steering don't come very often. Until proven wrong i expect another season with an eastcoast trof recurving most storms.

Hi Adrian. You said in past weeks that Florida would be a bulls eye this season but are things changing now?

[SFLcane]

I know gator just stateing the probable. My personal take 2004 steering don't come very often. Until proven wrong i expect another season with an eastcoast trof recurving most storms.

Hi Adrian. You said in past weeks that Florida would be a bulls eye this season but are things changing now?

Dont know luis.. Just got so use to past several years everything in sight recurving at least most. Looking at the overall pattern & conditions at hand there are "some" similarities to the 04 season i guess that had early recurves but storms that get far enough westward don't recurve. Maybe i just need something to track a good bonified capeverde tc

['CaneFreak]

Don't worry. There will be plenty of time for that. We are not even halfway through the season yet

Dont know luis.. Just got so use to past several years everything in sight recurving at least most. Looking at the overall pattern & conditions at hand there are "some" similarities to the 04 season i guess that had early recurves but storms that get far enough westward don't recurve. Maybe i just need something to track a good bonified capeverde tc

[TheStormExpert]

I was never sold with the strong ridging sticking through the peak of the season in the first place. I'm kind of buying an EC trough setting up in the coming weeks.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think some are jumping to conclusions a little fast here. Who says that trough is a permanent feature for the season?

[ninel conde]

I think some are jumping to conclusions a little fast here. Who says that trough is a permanent feature for the season?

joe bastardi has stated summer is over for the northeast. that would certainly imply the trough is here to stay. it was a permanent feature the last 3 years.

[ninel conde]

does anyone have the latest tropical instability maps?

[wxman57]

does anyone have the latest tropical instability maps?

Bottom line of the top table on my hurricane links page:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/hurricane.html

[ninel conde]

thanks. if im reading it right its well below normal as i would suspect based on the absence of any convection in the atlantic.

[wxman57]

thanks. if im reading it right its well below normal as i would suspect based on the absence of any convection in the atlantic.

Tropical Atlantic & Caribbean currently have below-normal instability, due to sinking air in the region. However, the Gulf is more unstable than normal. Model projections are for instability to increase in the Caribbean/Atlantic in 7-10 days.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 19h

Attn @AndyRevkin Exceptionally dry air in mid/upper trop over tropics killing global ace so far ..less than 70% of normal!

is this exceptionally dry air something thats seasonal and not likely to change, or can it flip to moist in a week or 2?