Global model runs discussion

[perk]

Actually you both can be right,because the ridge could extend west or be weakened by a trough.Will depend on the actual timing of the system.

[SFLcane]

Ridge forecast to build in during the week only to weaken as a weak front tries to slide in for the weekend. So anything will be shunted off to the north before reaching the states. Don't see the gulf in a bad position this season. Either the Bermuda high is ridiculously strong and will send whatever storms that may come into mexico or the weekly persistant east coast trof will recurve them north.

+1

[cycloneye]

Ridge forecast to build in during the week only to weaken as a weak front tries to slide in for the weekend. So anything will be shunted off to the north before reaching the states. Don't see the gulf in a bad position this season. Either the Bermuda high is ridiculously strong and will send whatever storms that may come into mexico or the weekly persistant east coast trof will recurve them north.

The only way the GOM has threats by TC's this season is if they form in Western Caribbean or near the Bahamas and move in that direction.

[Ntxw]

Quick update on the MJO and models forecasting it. GFS sends it back into the wrong phases IMO (remember MJO does not go backwards) and most of the weak convection there is exists in the eastern IO/western Maritime but very incoherent. Euro is expecting a renewal wave in the IO which I am more inclined to believe since there is some +mountain torque event support. There could be development during this period but likely rogue. After that it will take about 30-45 days for the new MJO wave to progress back into the favorable phases which if it gets going soon should be about mid to late August. Still favor that period intact with best climo.

I still stand by this idea. GFS is very much struggling with the MJO forecast, it's confusing it with an oceanic kelvin wave that will more likely spark development in the EPAC vs Atlantic. It's been overzealous about returning the MJO backwards (cannot happen) from the Maritimes (currently there) to Africa and IO, I suspect this may be one of the causes for the model to over do systems in it's medium to long range.

[Kingarabian]

Quick update on the MJO and models forecasting it. GFS sends it back into the wrong phases IMO (remember MJO does not go backwards) and most of the weak convection there is exists in the eastern IO/western Maritime but very incoherent. Euro is expecting a renewal wave in the IO which I am more inclined to believe since there is some +mountain torque event support. There could be development during this period but likely rogue. After that it will take about 30-45 days for the new MJO wave to progress back into the favorable phases which if it gets going soon should be about mid to late August. Still favor that period intact with best climo.

I still stand by this idea. GFS is very much struggling with the MJO forecast, it's confusing it with an oceanic kelvin wave that will more likely spark development in the EPAC vs Atlantic. It's been overzealous about returning the MJO backwards (cannot happen) from the Maritimes (currently there) to Africa and IO, I suspect this may be one of the causes for the model to over do systems in it's medium to long range.

Yeah bro, look at that:


But that Kelvin Wave is there so we should see some activity regardless of the GFS being right or wrong, right?

[Ntxw]

Yeah, unlike over in the Atlantic the Euro does show some kind of development in the EPAC. It won't be a long period though, short window maybe of a week before the Kelvin waves move on, GFS probably overdoing that too. It's not coupled with the MJO so if anything does come, thinking it will be isolated and small but chances of development are definitely more likely than in the other basins.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Yeah, unlike over in the Atlantic the Euro does show some kind of development in the EPAC. It won't be a long period though, short window maybe of a week before the Kelvin waves move on, GFS probably overdoing that too. It's not coupled with the MJO so if anything does come, thinking it will be isolated and small but chances of development are definitely more likely than in the other basins.

Yup. Like you said, the Euro has minimal activity in the Pacific.

Bears watching.. for me at least!

[Kingarabian]

The CMC telling the GFS: "I CAN SPAWN MORE STORMS A THAN YOU!"

[Yellow Evan]

The GFS was acting a bit unrealistic. However, 0z GFS did only show 2 EPAC storms, not 4, which sounds a little more believable. It did not show anything in the ATL either. Was everything in 0z initialized correctly?

[RL3AO]

600 dm heights at 45 degrees north!

[MetroMike]

Does anyone with access to long range models show anything in the future? Please post some as I am getting bored.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone with access to long range models show anything in the future? Please post some as I am getting bored.

Well,nothing right now that the models have but as we enter the month of August,I am sure they will start to pick up activity.

[cycloneye]

Let's see when the models begin to show development as the peak of the season draws closer. Will the models in 2013 have several areas at the same time developing at peak time? This was in 2010.

[SFLcane]

Looking at 500mb since May i suspect some of those storms wont be recurving.

[gatorcane]

The 15-day 200 hPA graphic below shows a lot of sinking, stable air across the Atlantic basin (orange in the image) which, if correct, would suggest we will need to wait until the second half of August to see an uptick in activity across the basin:

[ninel conde]

Does anyone with access to long range models show anything in the future? Please post some as I am getting bored.

read a book on past great hurricanes, lol

[ninel conde]

Let's see when the models begin to show development as the peak of the season draws closer. Will the models in 2013 have several areas at the same time developing at peak time? This was in 2010.

posting that was cruel, lol. before i read it was 2010 i thought the bone dry air was finally gone.

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet from the models as July comes to a close and August arrives. Let's see when the lid goes off.

[blp]

Nothing yet from the models as July comes to a close and August arrives. Let's see when the lid goes off.

Yes, not too far away now. We should start to see something by the end of this week as the model starts to reach the peak portion of the season starting in late August. I have noticied the Ridge is forecast to persist in its current state which would be bad news for landfalling areas.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Nothing yet from the models as July comes to a close and August arrives. Let's see when the lid goes off.

Yes, not too far away now. We should start to see something by the end of this week as the model starts to reach the peak portion of the season starting in late August. I have noticied the Ridge is forecast to persist in its current state which would be bad news for landfalling areas.

Perhaps than again, knowing the early season we've had and the ongoing lack of model support for development, perhaps not.

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